UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

[Clyde1998]

SCOTLAND POLL - SURVATION
SNP - 48% (+2% on November poll; +28% on 2010 election)
LAB - 24% (N/C on Nov; -18% on 2010)
CON - 16% (-1% on Nov; -1% on 2010)
LIB - 5% (-1% on Nov; -14% on 2010)
UKIP - 4% (N/C on Nov; +3% on 2010)
GRN - 1% (-1% on Nov; N/C on 2010)

SNP landslide looking likely, with the Daily Record predicting (using UNS)
SNP - 54 seats (+48)
LAB - 4 seats (-37)
LIB - 1 seat (-10)
CON - 0 seats (-1)

[You kip if you want to...]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

[Clyde1998]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

Meanwhile, the same poll projects that Labour will lose all of their constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament if an election was held today, with another SNP majority.

Labour falling apart in Scotland.

[You kip if you want to...]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

I kind reminder than most were still predicting a Cameron landslide this time 5 years ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but you have to remember that that 16% was the result of twenty years of a tactical squeeze which the beneficiaries of have pretty explicitly abandoned.

This is true. But the ceiling on the Labour vote there can't be much above 30% (a respectable share, let's not forget) which makes things difficult. My thinking about a noisy campaign was that that kind of thing can bring out latent sympathy votes and may also encourage elements of the Tory rump vote there to vote Clegg.

[Clyde1998]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

I kind reminder than most were still predicting a Cameron landslide this time 5 years ago.

The Conservative vote share only dropped by 3% between the final few polls of 2009 and the election. Labour's vote pretty much stayed the same. But the Lib Dem vote increased by about 6%.

There wasn't much overall change between the voting intentions at the end of 2009 and the election results.

[joevsimp]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

no it won't. all our resources in South Yorks are going into Sheffield Central,

[afleitch]

but you have to remember that that 16% was the result of twenty years of a tactical squeeze which the beneficiaries of have pretty explicitly abandoned.

This is true. But the ceiling on the Labour vote there can't be much above 30% (a respectable share, let's not forget) which makes things difficult. My thinking about a noisy campaign was that that kind of thing can bring out latent sympathy votes and may also encourage elements of the Tory rump vote there to vote Clegg.

Which makes things difficult. I actually expect the Lib Dems to poll between 15 and 20%; something a bit like 1992/1997 but with a seat spread falling somewhere in the middle (I don't expect the Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories in London for example). However there will still be a sharp dip in support, especially where they are currently in third place. What voters do 'nationally' in the case means bugger all in the constituencies. How the Lib Dems split when they 'return home' or cast a protest vote will vary vastly from seat to seat.

[ChrisDR68]

Which makes things difficult. I actually expect the Lib Dems to poll between 15 and 20%; something a bit like 1992/1997 but with a seat spread falling somewhere in the middle (I don't expect the Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories in London for example).

That would mean you're expecting the Libs to get around 17% nationally. That's probably a little optimistic imo. My expectations for them is in the 13-14% range with them winning between 28-36 of the seats they currently hold.

With all the bile directed towards them over the last 4 years there may well be a shy Lib Dem voter effect going on right now. That would explain why they haven't budged in the opinion polls for the last 3 1/2 years.

Whatever happens next May though it's going to be a long and fraught night for the Libs. Something they haven't experienced since their awful 1970 election result.

[You kip if you want to...]

Which makes things difficult. I actually expect the Lib Dems to poll between 15 and 20%; something a bit like 1992/1997 but with a seat spread falling somewhere in the middle (I don't expect the Lib Dems to lose seats to the Tories in London for example).

With all the bile directed towards them over the last 4 years there may well be a shy Lib Dem voter effect going on right now. That would explain why they haven't budged in the opinion polls for the last 3 1/2 years.

Local/European results have, in no way, supported this.

[Phony Moderate]

What constituencies are the UKers here in? Mine (the one I'll be voting in) is Bath. Sources tell me that the Tories are confident. Can't see it; the Lib Dem share will fall more sharply than in most of their seats in which the Tories are second due to A. Foster hugely increasing his share in 2010 and B. Student backlash, but it'll still be a 3-5,000 hold imo. The Labour candidate is a 20ish year-old student btw. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'll presumably vote in Sheffield Hallam, amusingly enough. If I really wanted to I could vote in my home constituency of Enfield Southgate (yes, the Portillo seat), because the MP there is a smarmy nut.

[YL]

What constituencies are the UKers here in? Mine (the one I'll be voting in) is Bath. Sources tell me that the Tories are confident. Can't see it; the Lib Dem share will fall more sharply than in most of their seats in which the Tories are second due to A. Foster hugely increasing his share in 2010 and B. Student backlash, but it'll still be a 3-5,000 hold imo. The Labour candidate is a 20ish year-old student btw. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

I'm in Sheffield Hallam (if that wasn't already obvious).

Bath strikes me as a tough nut for the Tories on current boundaries, although with Foster retiring they might see an opening.  Some outlying villages got transferred to Jacob Rees-Mogg's seat in 2010, which helped the Lib Dems in Bath while harming Labour there.

[Gary J]

I am in the Slough constituency. Nothing to see here - safe Labour win.

[Cassius]

I believe (though I may be wrong) that I'll be voting in Coventry South in May, which, whilst not exactly a rock-solid Labour seat, I doubt will produce anything other than a decent win for Labour.

[joevsimp]

Reading East, Tory-held marginal that Labour might regain, also on the Greens' list of twelve targets for the future so I'll probably be dragooned into canvassing sometime soon

[Clyde1998]

Newbury. Conservative landslide probably, unless the Lib Dems do something major.

However, in the Hungerford by-election for the local council, the Lib Dems cut the Conservative majority from around 300 to around 50 last year...

[ChrisDR68]

Wirral South which was a slightly surprising Labour hold in 2010.

Currently marginal it's likely to be a bit safer for them after May next year.

Would like to see Esther McVey knocked out in Wirral West next door. Can't stand her lol

[Hifly]

Probably Kensington- Sir Malcolm Rifkind's seat.
Conservative landslide.

[EPG]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

The Labour vote in Hallam has been below 21% for the last three decades. Greens may well win former supporters of other parties that Labour would like to take instead, but by that logic, everyone splits the Labour vote.

[joevsimp]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

The Labour vote in Hallam has been below 21% for the last three decades. Greens may well win former supporters of other parties that Labour would like to take instead, but by that logic, everyone splits the Labour vote.

that is Labour's logic IME

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I'll be voting for the first time in Bolton South East.  Safe Labour seat, nothing to see here and I don't think any of the other parties have even selected a candidate yet.

Last time I voted in Bolton West which turned out to be a knife-edge marginal.

[Clyde1998]

I'll be voting for the first time in Bolton South East.  Safe Labour seat, nothing to see here and I don't think any of the other parties have even selected a candidate yet.

Last time I voted in Bolton West which turned out to be a knife-edge marginal.

Depending on the UKIP factor, I could see Labour getting over 50% in that seat. I'd be very surprised if Labour don't win it.

[Supersonic]

Hampstead and Kilburn here. The most marginal seat (excl. Northern Ireland) I believe, although, it should be an easy Labour hold this time around given the probable decline of the LibDem vote. I've been bombarded by Labour and LibDem literature recently, and Labour did a 'door step' campaign not too long ago.

My parents live in South Thanet for increased fun and games.