UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone see Steph and Dom meet Nigel Farage?

[YL]

The Times has a front page story this morning about Labour's "secret" plot to win Sheffield Hallam, and an editorial, endorsing Clegg, entitled "Clegg in Peril" and claiming that CrabCake and I will be voting in the "most important constituency to be contested in May’s general election".  It's nice to have my vote valued so much, not that I'll be using it in the way they want me to...

[Goodwin]

I live and work in South Thanet. Should be a close one here.

[Clyde1998]

I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.

Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

[Serenity Now]

I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.

Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

Firstly, there are generally favourable demographics - however, I don't have time to give examples without resorting to listing stereotypes (eg the prevalence of hippies, hipsters, students, certain types of professionals) which would be a misrepresentation of both Green voters and the city as whole even though some of such labels might be accurate when applied to myself.  The demographics shifted over the last few decades due to migration from other parts of the UK (London in particular) and from former students of the two universities remaining in the city.

Secondly, the Green Party have had a presence on the local council since 1996, which has expanded to the point whereby, as of 2011, they are now are the largest party and head a not un-controversial minority administration.

Thirdly, the Green Party (as opposed to the Lib Dems) were locally the key beneficiaries disaffection with the 1997-2010 Labour Government over issues such as the UK's involvement in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Finally, with regards to 2010, the Green Party heavily targetted their resources on this constituency because it was their best change of a win by about a million miles.  The high public profile of the candidate, then-leader Caroline Lucas (who I'm acquianted with and rather a fan of), was definitely a factor in attacting activists from other parts of the UK and in attracting voters locally.  In my opinion any other candidate would probably not have won.

[Supersonic]

Anyone see Steph and Dom meet Nigel Farage?

Yes, it was a bit bizarre - just a mass drinking session (although, that was to be expected I guess) and Nigel looked stoned at the end.

[EPG]

I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.

Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

Favourable historical conditions: a significant minority aligned to political radicalism, largely thanks to the prominence of the University of Sussex, founded in the 1960s, already with a reputation for left-wing politics and student protest by the 1970s; later including squatters' movements and environmental activists; unlike other seaside towns, enjoyed significant redevelopment.
Favourable historical irony: prominent anti-redevelopment campaign, whose lack of success allowed gentrification to change the city's demographics favourably for the Greens.
Favourable demographics: largely young-adult households without dependents, very non-religious, transient, rather well-off compared to the country as a whole.

This gave the Greens a base in Brighton by the turn of the millennium; the rest is the tactical concentration of Green efforts in areas of concentrated support to win seats under FPTP. There's no real reason why Brighton should be so much more successful and better-organised for the Greens than certain parts of north London, except that the electoral system encourages it.

[doktorb]

I live and will vote in Preston. Safe Labour, nothing to see here. If you want marginal (or at least competitive) you have to go outside our immediate borders into South Ribble, or Chorley.

[Harry Hayfield]

My Northern Ireland Forecast (working on the assumption of Unity Unionist candidates)



Antrim South (too close to call)

[ObserverIE]

My Northern Ireland Forecast (working on the assumption of Unity Unionist candidates)



Antrim South (too close to call)

I would expect the DUP to pick up East Belfast and hold on in North Belfast regardless of official pacts, but the other two seats should stay put.

[joevsimp]

what's happened to South Antrim there? not a DUP hold?

and do you not think that enough extra SF voters will turn out in F&ST after the four-vote margin last time?

[Harry Hayfield]

what's happened to South Antrim there? not a DUP hold?

and do you not think that enough extra SF voters will turn out in F&ST after the four-vote margin last time?

As Northern Irish polls appear to be almost non existent and I am not a complete expert on the province I am guessing that the DUP and the UUP will fight each other to a standstill in Antrim South (but that the SDLP and SF will decide the result) as to Fermanagh I think it will be a straight Independent Unity Unionist vs Sinn Fein candidate with the SDLP tipping it towards the Unionists (as they will realise that a Sinn Fein MP will not have any influence in a very hung parliament)

[ObserverIE]

as to Fermanagh I think it will be a straight Independent Unity Unionist vs Sinn Fein candidate with the SDLP tipping it towards the Unionists (as they will realise that a Sinn Fein MP will not have any influence in a very hung parliament)

A SF MP might not have any influence at Westminster but a Unity Unionist MP would - and would exercise it against the interests of SDLP voters. Gildernew to hold on more comfortably than last time.

[Vega]

How is the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland doing these days? Will they hold their seat in Belfast East?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How is the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland doing these days?

Quite well.

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Very unlikely. The unique circumstances of 2010 won't be repeated and the Alliance has attracted  much ire in Loyalist districts since then (due to the flegg issue and so on).

[DC Al Fine]

So how far does Sinn Fein not participating in parliament go? Do they still do constituency work, or do they sit on their arse and collect their paycheque?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both of the things you wrote are essentially true.

[Beezer]

Labour set for a bloodbath in Scotland in general election, poll says

Traditional Labour heartlands turning to SNP, which could win 45 of 59 Scottish Westminster seats, Guardian/ICM survey finds

The Scottish National party, which took only 20% of the vote in the 2010 general election, has subsequently more than doubled its vote to reach a commanding 43% of the prospective poll next May. Scottish Labour, which secured a very strong 42% in Gordon Brown’s homeland last time around, has since tumbled by 16 points to just 26%.

The Conservatives sink from 2010’s 17% to 13%, while the great bulk of the 19% share that the Liberal Democrats scored last time around is wiped out as they fall by 13 points to 6%.



On a uniform swing, these results – which are reinforced by a recent Survation poll for the Daily Record – would entirely redraw the political map. Labour’s band of 41 Scottish MPs would be reduced to a parliamentary rump of just 10 members, underlining that the Scottish party’s newly elected leader, Jim Murphy, has a mountain to climb.

The SNP, meanwhile, would storm ahead from the mere six MPs it returned in 2010 to take a crushing majority of 45 of Scotland’s 59 constituencies. The Lib Dems, who currently hold 11 seats, would lose all but three, and the Tories would continue to languish with the single seat they currently hold.

Such dramatic Labour losses north of the border could easily offset the gains Ed Miliband hopes to make in England and Wales and potentially put Downing Street beyond his reach next year. But a unique analysis, conducted for the Guardian by Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, suggests that the crude assumption of a uniform swing could actually be understating the catastrophe facing the party.



By breaking ICM’s data into four different categories of seat, Curtice reveals Labour’s decline is sharpest in those supposedly heartland seats where it previously trounced the SNP by more than 25 points.

Whereas Labour’s Scotland-wide vote drops by 16 points, it falls by 22 points in these constituencies while the SNP surges by 26. That combination is sufficient to wipe out majorities that were always assumed to be impregnable, and Scottish Labour’s Westminster caucus is left shrivelling to just three MPs.

“We are prospectively looking at the collapse of citadels that have always been Labour since the 1920s,” said Curtice. “That will seem incredible to some in England, but to those of us who paid close attention to Alex Salmond’s 2011 landslide at Holyrood, it would merely be the next chapter in the political transformation of a nation.”

...

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/26/labour-bloodbath-scotland-general-election-2015-snp-westminster

[afleitch]

Given that it seems Labour's collapse is stronger in their core areas the uniform swing map might be defective. They might hold on in their Glasgow suburban core.

[politicus]

Given that it seems Labour's collapse is stronger in their core areas the uniform swing map might be defective. They might hold on in their Glasgow suburban core.

If the collapse is stronger in their core areas, why would that make it more likely for Labour to hold on to them?

[EPG]

On Northern Ireland - All the evidence is that the Ulster Unionist vote is in bad decline in South  Antrim. A single unionist candidate would also strengthen McDonnell to hold Belfast South. SDLP voters will split more for Sinn Féin than unionists in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, making a call in favour of unionists questionable, though given the importance of turnout, a call for either side is questionable. For the SDLP core vote, see transfer rates under STV elections; this constituency does not have an anti-Sinn Féin, Protestant tactical vote for the SDLP.

Given that it seems Labour's collapse is stronger in their core areas the uniform swing map might be defective. They might hold on in their Glasgow suburban core.

If the collapse is stronger in their core areas, why would that make it more likely for Labour to hold on to them?

A large majority of Scottish Westminster seats are held by Labour; some with massive margins, some with smaller. If most votes are lost in safe seats (like in Glasgow), Labour may still win a plurality of votes in those seats, while holding on to more marginal seats that would be lost under a uniform Scottish swing.

Of course, this is a risky position, because a bigger swing would then jeopardise both safe and marginal seats: http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/12/icm-underline-labours-woes-affirm-smiths-lack-popularity/

[politicus]

If most votes are lost in safe seats (like in Glasgow), Labour may still win a plurality of votes in those seats, while holding on to more marginal seats that would be lost under a uniform Scottish swing.

Of course, this is a risky position, because a bigger swing would then jeopardise both safe and marginal seats: http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/12/icm-underline-labours-woes-affirm-smiths-lack-popularity/

One of the main points in the article quoted was that the swing predicted in the core areas is enough to make them switch to SNP.

Labour holding on to marginal seats seems  a pipe dream by now.

A close to uniform swing of a size that allows them a secure hold in core areas would be the best they can realistically hope for.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given how volatile the Scottish electorate is the word 'realistically' is generally an unrealistic word to use usefully

One thing to be aware of is that Clydeside is not the entirety of working class Scotland. Labour will probably hold up better (no matter how large the swing ends up being) in smaller industrial towns - most of which voted No - than in Glasgow et al.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One more thing: recent national polls have mostly had Labour drifting back around 35% or so (a small but notable improvement from late autumn). Given poor showings in Scotland, this likely means good ones in Northern England and also the Great City Babylon.

[afleitch]

http://may2015.com/category/gqrr/

Fun with the demographic breakdowns in polls.