UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Insula Dei]

First YouGov of the year: 34/31/14/7/8

Also, it seems that the official campaign has begun, and it will be four months long. Yet another argument for the repeal of that idiotic Fixed Terms (aka Americanization) bill.

Why is it Americanisation? Most countries have fixed terms. Why couldn't it be Germanisation, or Swedenisation?

There still are early elections in Germany and Sweden.

[Harry Hayfield]

I would like to see the following debate format

England
Debate One: All parties with a Party Election Broadcast
Debate Two: All parties with more than 10% of the popular vote in 2010
Debate Three: All parties fielding more than 326 candidates and polling more than 10% averaged over the last twenty eight polls

Scotland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MSP
Debate Two: All parties fielding 59 candidates

Wales
Debate One: All parties with at least one AM
Debate Two: All parties fielding 40 candidates

Northern Ireland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MLA
Debate Two: All Unionist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Three: All Nationalist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Four: All Other Parties with at least one MLA

[ChrisDR68]

Blair basically did a whole bunch of cosmetic changes while the real legwork in ridding the party of trots was done by Kinnock and Smith.

Am I right in thinking that the "trots" found themselves within the Labour Party due to the NEC's decision to lift the ban of a number of far left organisations that could affiliate with the party when Labour was going through one of it's more left wing periods in 1973?

If that is correct then that decision is one of the most significant in post war British politics as it gave Labour all sorts of trouble over the next 20 years (including the formation of the breakaway SDP in 1981) and yet it seems to have been largely forgotten. 

[Clyde1998]

I would like to see the following debate format

England
Debate One: All parties with a Party Election Broadcast
Debate Two: All parties with more than 10% of the popular vote in 2010
Debate Three: All parties fielding more than 326 candidates and polling more than 10% averaged over the last twenty eight polls

Scotland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MSP
Debate Two: All parties fielding 59 candidates

Wales
Debate One: All parties with at least one AM
Debate Two: All parties fielding 40 candidates

Northern Ireland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MLA
Debate Two: All Unionist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Three: All Nationalist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Four: All Other Parties with at least one MLA

So...

England
Debate 1: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP, Green, BNP* , English Democrats*
Debate 2: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem
Debate 3: Conservative, Labour, UKIP

Scotland
Debate 1: SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Green
Debate 2: SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Green*, UKIP*

Wales
Debate 1: Labour, Conservative, Plaid, Lib Dem
Debate 2: Labour, Conservative, Plaid, Lib Dem, Green*, UKIP*

Northern Ireland
Debate 1: DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, UUP, Alliance, NI21, Green, TUV, UKIP
Debate 2: DUP, UUP, NI21, UKIP, TUV
Debate 3: Sinn Fein, SDLP
Debate 4: Alliance, Green

*I'm not quite sure if they would fit 100%, but it's a best guess.

EDIT: Correcting Northern Ireland errors.

[MaxQue]

TUV is clearly unionist, not other.

[Vega]

That fixed term thing should be repealed, but I don't think it will be by Labour or quite frankly anyone else.

Labour has gone full bore on the creating an American Senate for the upper house.

[© tweed]

so does the French "terrorist attack" open some space for UKIP?

Nigel Farage: 'people holding our passports that hate us'

[DC Al Fine]

so does the French "terrorist attack" open some space for UKIP?

Nigel Farage: 'people holding our passports that hate us'

If it's going to help any party, Front National is the best candidate.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

First YouGov of the year: 34/31/14/7/8

Also, it seems that the official campaign has begun, and it will be four months long. Yet another argument for the repeal of that idiotic Fixed Terms (aka Americanization) bill.

Why is it Americanisation? Most countries have fixed terms. Why couldn't it be Germanisation, or Swedenisation?

There still are early elections in Germany and Sweden.

There still are in the UK as well, under the fixed terms bill, so that is just a further argument that it's not Americanisation.

[Clyde1998]

TUV is clearly unionist, not other.

Whoops. I've change that.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30726499

Frightened! Frit!

[Phony Moderate]

He's right on this one though.

[You kip if you want to...]

He's right on this one though.

It reeks of opportunism. Talk up the Greens to do to Labour what UKIP has done to the PM. I would've thought an incumbent PM would've been falling over themselves to talk about their record.

A better response would've been to say what Clegg, Miliband and Farage have all said - they'll turn up whoever the media companies invite. Since it's up to the media, I would've thought that some form of debate would be better than no debate at all, just because of the Greens (a minor party, who haven't saved a single deposit in the 19 by-elections since 2010) getting overlooked.

http://labourlist.org/2015/01/10-times-david-cameron-praised-tv-debates/

[EPG]

From the Conservative perspective, time will be allocated 75:25 in favour of people who will be criticising Cameron: why volunteer to be that turkey?

[You kip if you want to...]

From the Conservative perspective, time will be allocated 75:25 in favour of people who will be criticising Cameron: why volunteer to be that turkey?

Because that'll be the case for the other 3 leaders as well...

[EPG]

From the Conservative perspective, time will be allocated 75:25 in favour of people who will be criticising Cameron: why volunteer to be that turkey?

Because that'll be the case for the other 3 leaders as well...

Do you think so? I think Ukip will not be attacking the Lib Dems, Labour will not be attacking Ukip, Lib Dems won't be attacking Labour, but most importantly everyone will be attacking either the government (Labour/Ukip) or the Conservatives (Lib Dems), because the government-opposition split is the way Westminster systems operate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

[Diouf]

The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

But isn't the LibDem corpse exactly where Labour hoped to get enough votes from to get a majority/plurality? The polls right now show that Labour is getter fewer of the former LibDem voters than they were in polls in 2012, while the Greens are taking a bigger slice.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049

[EPG]

The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

The Conservatives don't need a significant Green slice anywhere, they need one or two dozen small Green slices in line with national opinion polling in constituencies they are defending.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

But isn't the LibDem corpse exactly where Labour hoped to get enough votes from to get a majority/plurality? The polls right now show that Labour is getter fewer of the former LibDem voters than they were in polls in 2012, while the Greens are taking a bigger slice.

It's one of several hoped for sources. And 2012 was the trough year for the government for various reasons. The thing is, though, the pre-Coalition LibDems had an electoral coalition that was broad to the point of surreal. One component was comprised of the sort of people who would vote Green in any country with a semi-viable Green party; given that the Green Party now appears to be semi-viable...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Conservatives don't need a significant Green slice anywhere, they need one or two dozen small Green slices in line with national opinion polling in constituencies they are defending.

I'm sure that's how they see it, yes. Whether it's the right way, I'm not sure...

[You kip if you want to...]

Many 'lefties' used to vote LibDem because Labour's image was too rough and tumble for the Islington/Brighton kind've stereotype and they'd, of course, never vote for those nasty Tories.

This is who the Greens are winning over.

[EPG]

I wonder. Is it just the new against-all option for people who'd never vote for the nasty Ukip?

[You kip if you want to...]

I wonder. Is it just the new against-all option for people who'd never vote for the nasty Ukip?

Yes.

A factor fueling UKIP and the Greens is that with the LibDems out the game, the 'perpetually protesting' vote has splittered in all directions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Islington/Brighton

Islington is rather different to Brighton you know