UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 274988 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1050 on: January 15, 2015, 02:17:48 PM »

Not yet.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1051 on: January 15, 2015, 02:18:36 PM »



The West Country.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1052 on: January 15, 2015, 03:03:29 PM »

Wings Over Scotland/Panelbase Poll:
THE VOTING AGE SHOULD BE LOWERED TO 16
Scotland - Agree: 43%; Disagree 49%; Net agreement: -6%
rUK - Agree: 25%; Disagree: 66%; Net agreement: -41%

PEOPLE SHOULD BE PROSECUTED FOR OFFENSIVE, BUT NON-THREATENING, COMMENTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA LIKE TWITTER AND FACEBOOK
Scotland - Agree: 47%; Disagree: 37%; Net agreement: +10
rUK - Agree: 46%; Disagree: 37%; Net agreement: +9

THE DEATH PENALTY SHOULD BE BROUGHT BACK FOR MURDER
Scotland - Agree: 55%; Disagree: 33%; Net agreement: +22
rUK - Agree: 49%; Disagree: 36%; Net agreement: +13

PEOPLE CONVICTED OF ILLEGALLY DOWNLOADING MUSIC, FILMS OR VIDEOGAMES SHOULD BE IMPRISONED
Scotland - Agree: 10%; Disagree: 76%; Net agreement: -66
rUK - Agree: 11%; Disagree: 75%; Net agreement: -64

THE SECURITY SERVICES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MONITOR ANYONE’S PHONE CALLS, EMAILS ETC AT WILL
Scotland - Agree: 29%; Disagree: 61%; Net agreement: -32
rUK - Agree: 36%; Disagree: 54%; Net agreement: -18

CHED EVANS SHOULD BE PERMITTED TO RESUME HIS FOOTBALL CAREER AFTER SERVING A PRISON TERM FOR RAPE
Scotland - Agree: 28%; Disagree: 53%; Net agreement: -25
rUK - Agree: 29%; Disagree: 51%; Net agreement: -22

More to follow.

The poll sampled 1007 respondents in Scotland and 1031 across the rest of the UK. Fieldwork 9-14 Jan 2015. Full data tables will be available on the Panelbase website.
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YL
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« Reply #1053 on: January 15, 2015, 03:27:31 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2015, 03:30:35 PM by YL »


The Electoral Commission have actually just recommended abolishing it altogether...

I don't see any evidence of a problem.  If the Haltemprice & Howden by-election circus were typical of parliamentary elections in the UK, then I might support making it harder to stand (though I'd probably prefer increasing the number of signatures required to raising the deposit) but it isn't.  There's nothing wrong with the odd obvious joke candidate.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1054 on: January 15, 2015, 04:46:43 PM »



South East
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1055 on: January 15, 2015, 04:50:27 PM »

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1056 on: January 15, 2015, 05:24:29 PM »



The East.
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Sol
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« Reply #1057 on: January 15, 2015, 05:31:09 PM »

Dumb question Al, but why does Labor do so poorly in Brighton? I thought it was a very left-wing kind of place?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1058 on: January 15, 2015, 05:33:32 PM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas
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Sol
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« Reply #1059 on: January 15, 2015, 05:38:47 PM »


Well, ya, but Brighton Kemptown and Hove voted for the conservatives. Is this a sort of "disunion of the left" type deal due to vote-splitting?

Also, why did the Greens get prominent down there and not the LibDems.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1060 on: January 15, 2015, 05:53:40 PM »


Well, ya, but Brighton Kemptown and Hove voted for the conservatives. Is this a sort of "disunion of the left" type deal due to vote-splitting?

Also, why did the Greens get prominent down there and not the LibDems.
There's a large student vote. The polls suggest that the Greens are currently second amount younger voters (18-24 year olds). The Greens finished well among that age category in the last election as well.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1061 on: January 15, 2015, 05:59:14 PM »

Kemptown used to be much more left than Pavillion, but it has a) various white working-class estates that have dips in turnout and flirt with certain right-populists (expect it to have the highest UKIP vote in Brighton) b) a healthy Green/Lib split (a lot of Brighton's gays are in the western wards) and c) some affluent villages in the east.

Hove used to be very very Tory in the 80's. I've always seen it as a retirement land, but apparently the place has been degreying recently which has meant it is more competitive overall.

As for why the Greens chose Brighton to target? Who knows. Probably the gays.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1062 on: January 15, 2015, 07:05:45 PM »

Kemptown being the more rightwards of the two Brighton proper seats is more a comment on social change in Pavilion than anything thats happened in Kemptown. And obviously also the boundary changes that brought in those places east of Brighton.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1063 on: January 15, 2015, 07:14:10 PM »

Dumb question Al, but why does Labor do so poorly in Brighton? I thought it was a very left-wing kind of place?

Labour doesn't do badly there (in 2010 the figures ran: 35% in Kemptown, 33% in Hove, 29% in Pavilion), but in general Brighton skews Left/Alternative rather than Left/Proletarian, which ought to answer your question. Labour polls best in sketchier suburbs like Whitehawk than in the trendy city centre, though is certainly not without support there.
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« Reply #1064 on: January 16, 2015, 09:30:06 AM »

Although by some accounts, since taking the council in 2011, they've proved that they couldn't be trusted to run a bath.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1065 on: January 16, 2015, 02:56:06 PM »

So with just 110 days to go to the big day (and being someone with a certain fondness for stats Smiley) here is my stab at predicting the result:

......................................................................% Vote.....Popular Vote.....Seats       
Conservatives (David Cameron)........................35.1........10,445,874........293
Labour (Ed Miliband)..........................................30.9..........9,195,940........278
Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg)..........................13.5..........4,017,643..........31
UK Independence Party (Nigel Farage)..............11.3..........3,362,917............2
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)............2.2.............654,727..........23
Others.................................................................7.0..........2,083,223..........23

........................................................................100.0........29,760,324........650

Change from 2010
Con..........-1.0...........-257,780...........-13..............(10,703,654)
Lab..........+1.9..........+589,423..........+20...............(8,606,517)
LibDem.....-9.5........-2,818,605...........-26...............(6,836,248)
UKIP........+8.2.......+2,443,446............+2..................(919,471)
SNP..........+0.5.........+163,341...........+17.................(491,386)     
Oth...........-0.1.............-47,105..............0...............(2,130,328)     


On these seat numbers a centrist and centre right coalition of Con/Lib/DUP would give a majority 14 with a working majority of 24.

An unlikely centrist and centre left coalition of Lab/Lib/SNP would also be possible (mathematically at least) which funnily enough would also have a majority of 14 Cheesy



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Zanas
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« Reply #1066 on: January 16, 2015, 03:30:29 PM »

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?
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« Reply #1067 on: January 16, 2015, 03:36:17 PM »

18 NI constituencies

1 Green
4 Plaid? (Perhaps he is predicting they regain Ceredigion)
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politicus
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« Reply #1068 on: January 16, 2015, 03:42:32 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2015, 03:49:12 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:

BNP    1.9%
Greens 0.9%
Sinn Féin    0.6%
DUP 0.6%    
Plaid Cymru 0.6%     
SDLP 0.4%
UCU-NF 0.3%
English Democrats 0.2%
Alliance 0.1%
Respect 0.1%
TUV 0.1%
Independents 0.2%
Scottish Greens 0.1%
Health Concern 0.1%
Christian  0.1%

That is 6.3%

It all adds up.

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1069 on: January 16, 2015, 03:47:55 PM »

Turnout will be up to 68-69% imo.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #1070 on: January 16, 2015, 05:06:58 PM »

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:
<snip>

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.
speaker?
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politicus
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« Reply #1071 on: January 16, 2015, 05:22:24 PM »

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:
<snip>

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.
speaker?

Yeah, that too.
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Vega
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« Reply #1072 on: January 16, 2015, 06:21:38 PM »

Don't forget the Respect party!
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politicus
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« Reply #1073 on: January 16, 2015, 06:26:47 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2015, 06:28:51 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »


I wasn't.
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doktorb
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« Reply #1074 on: January 17, 2015, 06:16:25 AM »


[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]
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