UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[EPG]

Although by some accounts, since taking the council in 2011, they've proved that they couldn't be trusted to run a bath.

Well... this is the kind of received wisdom that is true and relevant, right up to the point at which we see numbers and it suddenly isn't. Truth is, we have no idea what will happen in Pavilion. The 2014 European elections had similar turnout to the 2011 locals, and similar results: Labour, Greens and Conservatives in that order bunched tightly together, albeit with a strong Ukip presence at the Euros hitting all other parties. The Greens easily outpolled Labour in Pavilion wards in 2011; since then, they have suffered an 11% swing in a by-election to Labour, on a typically-low turnout for local by-elections, but on the other hand that was a (national) high point for Labour's popularity when they were occasionally getting 40% rather than 30-35% today.

[Silent Hunter]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Along, with that matter the BNP. (Except for the Foreign Office, who managed a couple of days ago to mistakenly claim the British National Party was organising strikes in Bangladesh...)

[You kip if you want to...]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Along, with that matter the BNP.

The bank?

[YL]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

Ah, but have the voters of Bradford West?

[Thomas D]

How is 'Farage' pronounced?

[politicus]

How is 'Farage' pronounced?

http://www.howjsay.com/index.php?word=nigel%20farage

[Harry Hayfield]

So with just 110 days to go to the big day (and being someone with a certain fondness for stats ) here is my stab at predicting the result:

......................................................................% Vote.....Popular Vote.....Seats       
Conservatives (David Cameron)........................35.1........10,445,874........293
Labour (Ed Miliband)..........................................30.9..........9,195,940........278
Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg)..........................13.5..........4,017,643..........31
UK Independence Party (Nigel Farage)..............11.3..........3,362,917............2
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)............2.2.............654,727..........23
Others.................................................................7.0..........2,083,223..........23

........................................................................100.0........29,760,324........650

Change from 2010
Con..........-1.0...........-257,780...........-13..............(10,703,654)
Lab..........+1.9..........+589,423..........+20...............(8,606,517)
LibDem.....-9.5........-2,818,605...........-26...............(6,836,248)
UKIP........+8.2.......+2,443,446............+2..................(919,471)
SNP..........+0.5.........+163,341...........+17.................(491,386)     
Oth...........-0.1.............-47,105..............0...............(2,130,328)     


On these seat numbers a centrist and centre right coalition of Con/Lib/DUP would give a majority 14 with a working majority of 24.

An unlikely centrist and centre left coalition of Lab/Lib/SNP would also be possible (mathematically at least) which funnily enough would also have a majority of 14

At the last election there were 18 Northern Irelanders (of which five did not take their seats), three Plaid Cymru and a Green for a total of 22 seats. This means that there will be one net gain for the Others and that net gain could be any of the following: Plaid gain Ceredigion, ICHC gain Wyre Forest, Green gain Norwich South

[Thomas D]

How is 'Farage' pronounced?

http://www.howjsay.com/index.php?word=nigel%20farage

Thanks.

[afleitch]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914839/Two-Eds-hid-truth-global-crash-Miliband-Balls-knew-UK-economy-fall-cliff-year-happened-kept-secret.html

Probably best for him to both 'own' it but not be so dismissive over what it represents.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Full-Scale Poll (Panelbase)

SNP - 41% (-4% on November poll)
LAB - 31% (+3%)
CON - 14% (-1%)
UKIP - 7% (N/C)
LIB - 3% (N/C)
Others - 3% (+1)

Seats:
SNP - 35 (+29)
LAB - 20 (-21)
CON - 2 (+1)
LIB - 2 (-9)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yorkshire and northern Lincs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The North West.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The North East.

[YL]

This week's YouGov polls:

13 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 17 Green 6 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
14 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
15 Jan: Lab 34 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
16 Jan: Lab 32 Con 32 UKIP 16 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
18 Jan (Sunday Times): Lab 32 Con 31 UKIP 18 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 3
18 Jan (Sun on Sunday): Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 16 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5

[Silent Hunter]

If we're being honest, after the last recession, 34% is good for Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

If we're being honest, after the last recession, 34% is good for Labour.

If you wanna make yourself feel better, you could think that.

A better way to put it would be that after the downfall in 2010 and a leader with a 20% approval rating, it's a miracle they still have a good chance.

[Clyde1998]

SCOTLAND POLL - SURVATION
SNP - 45.8% (52 seats)
LAB - 26.2% (6 seats)
CON - 14.2% (0 seats)
LIB - 6.7% (1 seat)
UKIP - 3.8%
GRN - 2.6%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

wait, they're projecting the Tories to lose Dumfriesshire and Kennedy/Moore to be dethroned? Sounds suspicious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be better to ignore all 'seat projections' as they are invariably total bullsh!t.

[Clyde1998]

It would be better to ignore all 'seat projections' as they are invariably total bullsh!t.

I think it's based on uniform swing, but they were the numbers Survation themselves were giving - so they might have more data that they haven't released about constituencies.

The sub-samples put the SNP at 40% in South Scotland, Labour on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%, which could lead to the SNP capture of Dumfriesshire (which seems doubtful, at this stage).

Although one poll means nothing on its own, but Survation are the only pollster that release the regional voting data.

[Phony Moderate]

New contender (via Ashcroft) for most hilarious poll of this parliament so far:

Con - 29 (-5)
Lab - 28 (nc)
UKIP - 15 (-1)
Greens - 11 (+3)
Lib Dems - 9 (+1)
Others - 9 (+3)

Leading party doing just 1% better than Michael Foot's Labour.

[Silent Hunter]

It would be better to ignore all 'seat projections' as they are invariably total bullsh!t.

I think it's based on uniform swing, but they were the numbers Survation themselves were giving - so they might have more data that they haven't released about constituencies.

Remember folks, there ain't no thing as a uniform swing.

[doktorb]

The death of uniform swing will make Jeremy Vine's graphics even more desperate, I fear

[You kip if you want to...]

New contender (via Ashcroft) for most hilarious poll of this parliament so far:

Con - 29 (-5)
Lab - 28 (nc)
UKIP - 15 (-1)
Greens - 11 (+3)
Lib Dems - 9 (+1)
Others - 9 (+3)

Leading party doing just 1% better than Michael Foot's Labour.

The week-to-week changes in Ashcroft's polls are so bizarre as to render them pointless. Bet he'll have Labour 5 ahead or something next week.

 I do have to note how this poll conveniently fits the 'Green debate' narrative. Today's Populus had them down 2% to 4% and Yougov haven't picked up on any particularly big trend to them during last week.

[ChrisDR68]

I wonder if all these people telling pollsters they intend to vote Green have actually examined that party's policies?

As far as I can tell their policies are somewhere to the left of Neil Kinnock's 1987 Labour Party... so I presume not! lol