UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 274996 times)
politicus
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« Reply #1100 on: January 19, 2015, 02:05:54 PM »

I wonder if all these people telling pollsters they intend to vote Green have actually examined that party's policies?

As far as I can tell their policies are somewhere to the left of Neil Kinnock's 1987 Labour Party... so I presume not! lol


Why shouldn't there be a segment of 10-15% to the left of Neil Kinnock's Labour? It's the normal level of left wing support for Northern Europe.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1101 on: January 19, 2015, 02:12:25 PM »

And on the very same day we have from another outfit (Populus) the following figures: Labour 36, Con 35, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Green 4
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1102 on: January 19, 2015, 02:14:59 PM »

I wonder if all these people telling pollsters they intend to vote Green have actually examined that party's policies?

As far as I can tell their policies are somewhere to the left of Neil Kinnock's 1987 Labour Party... so I presume not! lol



The problem isn't that. It's people not knowing about their record in places that they're already in office and people not realising that a vote for the Greens could mean they'll see a grinning Dave Cam on the steps of Number 10, waving at them through their telly on May 8th.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1103 on: January 19, 2015, 02:19:16 PM »

I have many disagreements with the UK Greens (basically mostly on foreign policy, but I imagine they'll grow up around that issue as they mature), but I don't really think they will cause too much of a dent in Labour...

(I was meaning to effortpost on Brighton, but cba)
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #1104 on: January 19, 2015, 04:29:30 PM »

I know little about UK politics, but is there a possible for a Conservative-UKIP coalition?

Well for one thing, UKIP will probably only win 2 seats. 3 would be like a huge feat. Even then, that's not going to be the difference between a minority and a majority. So it's a moot point.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1105 on: January 19, 2015, 04:34:48 PM »

I know little about UK politics, but is there a possible for a Conservative-UKIP coalition?

Well for one thing, UKIP will probably only win 2 seats. 3 would be like a huge feat. Even then, that's not going to be the difference between a minority and a majority. So it's a moot point.

Nothing can be written off for UKIP. They were underestimated in the 2013 locals, last year's local and Europeans, so I'd assume this years GE too.

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Lurker
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« Reply #1106 on: January 19, 2015, 05:19:36 PM »

Any theories on why the Green Party is polling so well compared to their past GE results (as far as I can see, their best showing was 1,04%, in 2005)?  Do they have any nationally known politicians/spokesmen?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1107 on: January 19, 2015, 05:34:53 PM »

Any theories on why the Green Party is polling so well compared to their past GE results (as far as I can see, their best showing was 1,04%, in 2005)?  Do they have any nationally known politicians/spokesmen?

Leftish protest voters need somewhere to go now that the Lib Dems are tarnished.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1108 on: January 19, 2015, 05:41:46 PM »

increased focus on minor parties (when UKIP were surging, there was lots of grumbling amongst Greens that went along the lines of "gosh if only we had that amount of exposure".) Unfortunately their leader is a bit of a squib at the moment, none of that classic Farage, erm, "charm".

oh and hipsters
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DL
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« Reply #1109 on: January 19, 2015, 06:05:28 PM »

FWIW we had a period in Canada in 2007-2008 when the so-called Green party was often polling as high as 12 or 13% - interestingly most of those people did not even think the environment was the number one issue - it was largely just "none of the above" vote parking by Liberal voters disappointed with their leadership.

When the voted were counted the Greens got 6% - no where near what polls had been saying.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1110 on: January 19, 2015, 06:11:42 PM »

Yes, that seems to be an enduring problem with the Canadian Greens, across all provinces. Sad (I'm even less enamoured with the Canadian Greens than I am the British ones, but FPTP locking legitimate parties out is always annoying.

Both Greens and UKIP numbers will be squeezed into realistic levels as the campaign heats up, unless Con/Lab screw up immensely. (The Liberals vote is so squeezed already into their stronghelds that it probably won't shrink further, unless Clegg endorses ISIS or something)
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DL
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« Reply #1111 on: January 19, 2015, 06:37:17 PM »

IMHO, UKIP is less likely to be squeezed than the Greens. They have shown they can win seats, they have money and they have a unique selling proposition being the only party that is anti-EU and anti-immigration. The Greens have to compete on the left with Labour and the LibDems and they don't have much of a unique selling proposition beyond just being a parking place for Labour voters with qualms about Miliband and LibDem voters mad at Clegg for the coalition.

I see the Greens as a negative option "Im fed up with everyone" while UKIP actually stands for something - much as we might dislike what they stand for.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1112 on: January 19, 2015, 06:55:50 PM »

I see the Greens as a negative option "Im fed up with everyone" while UKIP actually stands for something - much as we might dislike what they stand for.

both these statements are ... shaky to say the least. At the very least, the phrase "UKIP actually stands for something" particularly confuses me, seeing as the number of backflips the party seems to do. (not that the Greens won't be doing some spectacular flip-flops of their own if they pick up interest).

Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1113 on: January 19, 2015, 08:57:47 PM »

Any theories on why the Green Party is polling so well compared to their past GE results (as far as I can see, their best showing was 1,04%, in 2005)?  Do they have any nationally known politicians/spokesmen?

A lot of the people who are currently toying with supporting them had voted LibDem in recent elections (and often before; obviously that's very age dependent) and have been looking around for someone else to vote for subsequently (i.e. in most of the country Labour has a very traditional image). I suspect we will see good Green percentages in all the university constituencies.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1114 on: January 19, 2015, 09:28:35 PM »

Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.

Cameron promises an in/out EU referendum... and fully intends to campaign to stay in regardless of the result of his re-negotiation with Brussels about the terms of the UK's membership!

He also talks about reducing net immigration while in the full knowledge he can't do a thing about immigration from other EU countries while the UK is still a member of the EU. Something UKIP never stops pointing out with some glee lol

He's also using the Greens as a blatant smokescreen to avoid participating in the leader's debates. Something everyone but everyone see's through Cheesy

Our dear ol' PM doesn't haven't a great deal of credibility at this moment in time...

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CrabCake
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« Reply #1115 on: January 19, 2015, 09:45:12 PM »

Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.

Cameron promises an in/out EU referendum... and fully intends to campaign to stay in regardless of the result of his re-negotiation with Brussels about the terms of the UK's membership!

He also talks about reducing net immigration while in the full knowledge he can't do a thing about immigration from other EU countries while the UK is still a member of the EU. Something UKIP never stops pointing out with some glee lol

He's also using the Greens as a blatant smokescreen to avoid participating in the leader's debates. Something everyone but everyone see's through Cheesy

Our dear ol' PM doesn't haven't a great deal of credibility at this moment in time...



True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1116 on: January 20, 2015, 05:40:41 AM »

Any theories on why the Green Party is polling so well compared to their past GE results (as far as I can see, their best showing was 1,04%, in 2005)?  Do they have any nationally known politicians/spokesmen?

A lot of the people who are currently toying with supporting them had voted LibDem in recent elections (and often before; obviously that's very age dependent) and have been looking around for someone else to vote for subsequently (i.e. in most of the country Labour has a very traditional image). I suspect we will see good Green percentages in all the university constituencies.

Labour's too Benefit Street-y for the kids of Tory voting parents, to put it crudely.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1117 on: January 20, 2015, 10:20:00 AM »

ICM poll out today in the Guardian:

Labour 33% (nc)
Conservatives 30% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-3)
UKIP 11% (-3)
Greens 9% (+4)
Others 7% (+1)

Rounding the figures up means the total is 101% lol. Another confirmation of the current (and mysterious) surge for the Greens.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/20/poll-labour-lead-fall-green-conservative-lib-dem-ukip

On a side note Jeremy Paxman has attacked Winston Churchill as a ruthless egotist as a BBC documentary marks the 50th anniversary of his death. Pot calling the kettle black surely! Cheesy

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/winston-churchill-anniversary-jeremy-paxman
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1118 on: January 20, 2015, 11:17:09 AM »

Unless they can stitch together a full slate (which is going to be tricky) they won't be able to actually poll at numbers like that, but we'd see a lot of saved deposits.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1119 on: January 20, 2015, 11:24:55 AM »

ICM's spinning of their own poll is hilarious though. My God...
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1120 on: January 20, 2015, 11:33:15 AM »

Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!
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Zanas
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« Reply #1121 on: January 20, 2015, 12:01:10 PM »

Does anyone sane here actually believe that the Greens will eventually poll even as high as half what they're polling now ? I mean, come on... As Al said, they'd first have to run a full slate, plus people in the end will choose what matters, and as Lab-Con seems bound to stay rathor-thin till the end, I doubt the Greens actually poll higher than 4%. You heard it here first. Well, no, probably not. Still. And they may well lose their only seat, as CrabCake said.
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Hifly
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« Reply #1122 on: January 20, 2015, 12:07:34 PM »

Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!


Yes! Exactly because of occasions like this Smiley
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EPG
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« Reply #1123 on: January 20, 2015, 04:16:43 PM »

Does anyone sane here actually believe that the Greens will eventually poll even as high as half what they're polling now ? I mean, come on... As Al said, they'd first have to run a full slate, plus people in the end will choose what matters, and as Lab-Con seems bound to stay rathor-thin till the end, I doubt the Greens actually poll higher than 4%. You heard it here first. Well, no, probably not. Still. And they may well lose their only seat, as CrabCake said.

They said all that about Ukip, when Ukip was on 10%! Yes, Miliband and Clegg are disliked by most people so their former supporters have flocked to other parties, some first to Ukip, now some others to the Greens.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1124 on: January 20, 2015, 04:47:51 PM »

Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!


It makes elections a hell of a lot more interesting.

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