UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 274983 times)
Zanas
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« Reply #1150 on: January 22, 2015, 10:06:43 AM »

On the contrary, it will take years (and not one or two at that) for living standards to recover to where were before the financial crisis hit, and people are aware of this instinctively (i.e. when people talk of there being 'no recovery' - as they still often do - this is what they mean). It's a good line of attack (and happens to be morally right, though that's by the by), but the question is whether Labour can deliver it effectively during the campaign.

Allied to this though is the rapidly falling petrol and household energy prices (something I didn't expect a year ago but am very happy about as everybody else is I'm sure Smiley. Couple this with the personal allowance finally reaching £10,000 in the spring and a lot of people will be feeling quite buoyant about their personal finances just in time for the general election.   
What is the personal allowance finally reaching £10,000 in the spring ?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1151 on: January 22, 2015, 11:39:24 AM »

Broadcasters will now have two seven-party debates (Labour, Tory, Lib, Kipper, Greenies, Nats and Plaid) in addition to an Ed vs. Dave battle.

One new worry for Labour, I guess, is Plaid managing to outfox them in Welsh seats as the Nats have done in Scotland. People in the know, is Wood an effective public speaker? Will we see "#Woodmania!" any day soon?

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afleitch
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« Reply #1152 on: January 22, 2015, 11:59:19 AM »


Well Cameron played a blinder on the debates; he ‘initiates’ a Green surge (surges often happen just because the media start talking about it) and now it looks like we’ll get the Greens and the SNP and Plaid. That creates a potential ‘stairheed rammy’ involving 7 parties in the debates. It gives the SNP exposure in Scotland during a GE (which they often lack) which will hopefully sustain momentum and gives Plaid national legitimacy and dilutes UKIP’s ‘none of the above’ status.

When there’s so many people in the mix debate wise, no one knows what the expectations are. It makes a ‘one on one’ with Miliband easier. Miliband starts from a low expectation. People expect him to look odd, stare, wet his lips, fidget and regurgitate the unfortunate ‘I genewawy thay to youw’ inflections. He just has to come across half decent and he wins by default. In a 7 header to start off with, it gives Cameron a better opportunity to scout him.

To pick up on the ‘cost of living’ stuff from earlier, including oil prices, inflation and potential Budget giveaways; there’s something (I say this as someone who isn’t going to vote for them), that makes me think there’s a ‘perfect storm’ brewing for what could potentially be a quite comfortable Conservative victory in May.
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YL
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« Reply #1153 on: January 22, 2015, 12:13:36 PM »

Well Cameron played a blinder on the debates

Depends who you believe.  If you believe the stories that he didn't really want them at all, then his bluff has rather been called.
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change08
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« Reply #1154 on: January 22, 2015, 12:57:21 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2015, 01:04:53 PM by You kip if you want to... »

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?
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Lurker
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« Reply #1155 on: January 22, 2015, 01:13:58 PM »

This will be a total mess. Debates with as many as seven party leaders can work reasonably well if there a two relatively clear blocks standing against each other, as is often the case in the Scandinavian countries, but it should be more unworkable when you have no "alliances" like in the UK. Should be fun, though. Smiley
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« Reply #1156 on: January 22, 2015, 01:20:55 PM »

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Do you think so? A far greater number of Lib-Dem voters have fled to Labour than to any other party (according to Ashcroft), so I would imagine that Clegg would spend much of his time attacking Miliband. And as for the SNP, most of its targets are Labour MPs.  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1157 on: January 22, 2015, 01:25:17 PM »

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

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Yes, this is a serious concern.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1158 on: January 22, 2015, 01:26:03 PM »

People in the know, is Wood an effective public speaker?

No.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1159 on: January 22, 2015, 01:29:27 PM »

A seven-way debate would likely be a cacophonous joke.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1160 on: January 22, 2015, 01:31:13 PM »

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.
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politicus
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« Reply #1161 on: January 22, 2015, 01:54:26 PM »

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

Yeah, that is actually quite a strange phenomenon. Isn't that economically inefficient for media owners to recruit journos from a background that is so unrelatable to their readers/viewers? You lose the "neighbours boy/girl" identification and the choice of topics and angles that interest the general public becomes skewered even more than with the general middle class bias of journalism.
I can understand it for BBC, but when it comes to private media there is the "bad for business" aspect.
 
Britain even recruits a large share of its comedians from Oxbridge (incl. the one in my sig), which is even stranger than the journos.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #1162 on: January 22, 2015, 01:54:30 PM »

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well?

The DUP itself is also curious about this.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1163 on: January 22, 2015, 01:56:50 PM »

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.

and true to form...

everyone aboard the clowncar!

maybe we need knock-out rounds or something. Have it hosted like The Weakest Link.
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politicus
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« Reply #1164 on: January 22, 2015, 02:11:40 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2015, 02:13:27 PM by Charlotte Hebdo »

If we're letting Plaid in, why not the DUP as well? Lets take this softcockery to its natural and logical conclusion.


It isn't the logical conclusion. Given that NI has it's own separate party system, where the national British parties don't compete, including Wales and Scotland and excluding Northern Ireland makes perfect sense.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #1165 on: January 22, 2015, 02:13:46 PM »

I think we need Galloway up there.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1166 on: January 22, 2015, 02:24:28 PM »

Why isn't the nationally relevant Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern being invited? Surely they want their say?
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afleitch
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« Reply #1167 on: January 22, 2015, 02:41:41 PM »

The Scottish Labour Party have not provided official membership figures since 2008 when it stood at 17,000. I heard, from a trustworthy source tonight it might now be in the 5000-7000 range which if true, it would have less members than the Greens, Tories (who still have a lot of residual old duffers) and the SNP which has now surpassed 100,000 members. Important stuff in advance of any ground game.
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EPG
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« Reply #1168 on: January 22, 2015, 03:07:15 PM »

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

I'm clearly in no position to estimate the mood on the ground (who is, though?), but as far as I can see the line doesn't play too well with the mainstream media.

That's because they are bunch of poshos with private educations and Oxbridge degrees who understand nothing of life outside their own incestuous bubble.

Yeah, that is actually quite a strange phenomenon. Isn't that economically inefficient for media owners to recruit journos from a background that is so unrelatable to their readers/viewers? You lose the "neighbours boy/girl" identification and the choice of topics and angles that interest the general public becomes skewered even more than with the general middle class bias of journalism.
I can understand it for BBC, but when it comes to private media there is the "bad for business" aspect.
 
Britain even recruits a large share of its comedians from Oxbridge (incl. the one in my sig), which is even stranger than the journos.

Veering off-topic... England is a class-based society, but socially harmonious, as evidenced by their lack of recent radicalism and revolution. Oxbridge, like everybody on every rung on the social ladder (Oxbridge being by no means the top rung), mostly prefer to vest trust in their superiors than their inferiors on the ladder. They prefer to identify with their superiors, and kick downwards at their inferiors. Another hypothesis is that the UK education system is sufficiently competitive or meritocratic that Oxbridge alumni have credible claim to be the strongest candidates in most fields of intellectual activity. A weaker version of this idea is that Oxbridge selects strongly for cleverness and self-confidence, which may not reflect intelligence but are necessary in politics, journalism and comedy. A fourth hypothesis is that networking matters, so small networks and establishment institutions like comedians or well-respected newspapers will be perpetuated by Oxbridge or even the minor aristocracy, whereas déclassé insurgencies like anarchism, monetarism or the Daily Mail will be more open to other contesters.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1169 on: January 22, 2015, 05:57:03 PM »

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1170 on: January 22, 2015, 06:17:58 PM »

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.
The 2011 Scottish election debate convinced a lot of people to vote SNP - here's the STV debate if you want to watch it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZWow6nKvDk

The opinion poll at the start of the programme suggests the SNP and Labour were level before this debate - and the SNP won the election by a landslide.

The SNP will probably want answers about the Smith Commission, on more powers to Scotland, and Plaid Cymru will probably be asking for more powers for Wales. But both won't focus on this for the entire debate - and I'll expect both to bring up issues about poverty and inequality in a debate.
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EPG
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« Reply #1171 on: January 22, 2015, 07:05:53 PM »

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.
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change08
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« Reply #1172 on: January 22, 2015, 07:10:59 PM »

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

Oh, the leader of Plaid Cymru will find a chance to speak a good measure of Welsh in the debate.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1173 on: January 22, 2015, 07:42:49 PM »

That's unlikely for reasons unrelated to whether she'd like to or not...
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1174 on: January 22, 2015, 07:46:42 PM »

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

It helps that all the participants share a mother language... even Plaid.

Oh, the leader of Plaid Cymru will find a chance to speak a good measure of Welsh in the debate.

Wood supposedly isn't fluent.
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