UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[politicus]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

[afleitch]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

[Clyde1998]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

The SNP and Labour are just moving around a certain point for each pollster.

The Panelbase order was very strange. They've done a similar thing before though - in a referendum poll that put the Yes campaign ahead in August 2013.

***

On a partially related note - there was a by-election for the Fife council yesterday:

Kirkcaldy East
SNP - 47.3% (+10.9%)
LAB - 35.3% (-14.7%)
CON - 7.2% (+1.2%)
GRN - 4.1% (+4.1%)
UKIP - 3.8% (+3.8%)
LIB - 1.3% (-1.5%)
OTH/IND - 1.0% (-3.8%)
Turnout - 27.27% (-7.3% on 2012 Election)
Swing - 12.8% from Labour to SNP.

A massive swing to the SNP in Gordon Brown's backyard - although I do note the low turnout.

[joevsimp]

Why isn't the nationally relevant Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern being invited? Surely they want their say?

they've actually re-formed as the National Health Action Party, they contested the Euros last year.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/greater-Mebyon-Kernow-coverage-battle-takes-TV/story-25912365-detail/story.html

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/11745170.George_Galloway_threatens_legal_action_to_join_TV_election__debates/

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of the SNP...

[Silent Hunter]

If I want to see debates containing enough leaders to fill an SUV, I'd watch Borgen again. At least that's fiction.

[Simfan34]

Talking of the SNP...

...what? I'd expect this from Ulster, sure, but Scotland?!

[afleitch]

Talking of the SNP...

...what? I'd expect this from Ulster, sure, but Scotland?!

Well it's John Mason being a d-ck as usual.

[joevsimp]

are schoolchildren in Scotland not aware of this through normal RE lessons at school?

[afleitch]

are schoolchildren in Scotland not aware of this through normal RE lessons at school?

If you read the opening statement in Mason's proposal, which is a response to a Parliament notion on chaplains (and why he links that to Creationism, f-ck knows) what the issue was, was a few schools in East Kilbride essentially having happy-clappy American 'chaplains' in their schools who handed out typical American crap about creationism, gays and non-believers. The Parliament notion was to tighten up chaplaincy posts at schools and while allowing them to be of a 'Christian character', would require more vetting in case they were evangelising nuts.

[afleitch]

David Hamilton, MP for Midlothian will stand down in May.

If we ignore the SNP wave for a minute it's worth spending time on where sitting Labour MP's standing down could effect the race in Scotland. The main one is Glenrothes MP Lindsay Roy who is standing down. He has a huge personal vote in Glenrothes which is held at Holyrood by SNP MSP Tricia Marwick who also has a huge personal vote in what must be a unique. Even with the SNP in the 40's in the polls, Labour retains Glenrothes. Less likely now. Same as Kirkcaldy next door which is losing Gordon Brown.

A big blow is Anne McGuire in Stirling. Again, a personal vote here as Michael Forsyth's vote as the Tory MP was before her. Whipless Eric Joyce is out in Falkirk and Frank Doran is out in Aberdeen North which are also good bets for the SNP even in a closer rate. Alistair Darling is also out in Edinburgh South West where the Tory vote is swamped by the inclusion of the whole of Sighthill. Sighthill voted SNP in 2007 even though they finished 3rd in Edinburgh Pentlands and it helped oust the Tories in 2011. Labour may have to rely on genteel voters to retain this seat next time around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Suspect a hold on a vote-split fluke (while leading precisely nowhere in the constituency) would be more likely, unless underlying voting patterns in Edinburgh have changed hugely.

Midlothian is an interesting one; Labour had a good local by-election in the constituency there towards the end of last year (i.e. well after the SNP poll surge got underway) and of course the area voted No.

[afleitch]

Suspect a hold on a vote-split fluke (while leading precisely nowhere in the constituency) would be more likely, unless underlying voting patterns in Edinburgh have changed hugely.

Midlothian is an interesting one; Labour had a good local by-election in the constituency there towards the end of last year (i.e. well after the SNP poll surge got underway) and of course the area voted No.

Midlothian is probably the most fertile territory left for Labour in Lothian at the moment, in that the SNP are 'weak' here and the Lib Dems and Tories non existent. Even when playing about to create '1974 notionals', this seat (boundaries the same) was solid for Labour. SNP's win in Midlothian North and Musselburgh in 2011 was modest and their vote would be disproportionately strong in Musselburgh which is in East Lothian.

Up until today, I had it as a Labour hold even if the arse fell out of them.

Edinburgh is a difficult city to predict because voters there are probably the most fluid and the most attentive as to who is running against whom and where. So how the boundaries fall here make all the difference. Edinburgh East for example takes a bite right into the city; it takes in the Castle, Old Town and the University and a chunk of students When I looked at the results for that seat had the Holyrood election taken place on it in 2007, the SNP won it (even though it didn't include Musselburgh) because it's vote in what were then 'no-hope' seats was uniform.

That's an SNP strength and weakness. It's vote across Scotland is so uniform now that a wave vote for them would mean they would swamp the seats across the country. The SNP have that uniform support both in urban and rural areas.

In 2011 and again, looking at the polls, the SNP are taking Labour votes right from actual Labour voters, particularly in the C2DE range (who were also sympathetic to Yes) Labour will probably hold up on the strength of borrowing votes from Tories and Lib Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if they retain East Ren, Aberdeen South, Central Ayrshire etc but end up losing Motherwell, Kirkcaldy etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[afleitch]

Also worth stressing that Ed's approvals are dire in Scotland and regularly tie with David Cameron's. A friend of mine is doing the research into that one, but it might be the first time since polling began that a Tory leaders approval ratings have bested a Labour leaders approvals in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon who is genuinely 'left wing' (as much as you can be genuinely 'that away' and hold the position that she does) also has approval ratings that are unhealthily high for a western democracy. If she actually gets to be on the telly debates too then it's a perfect storm for the SNP.

[afleitch]

The internet has been crying out for an editable map of Wales Though now you might be moving in the direction of my territory

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, although the stuff to work with isn't so good (regrettably). Then hopefully Norn Iron as well (I've not even checked).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[YL]

This week's YouGov polls, including the one the Sun hyped:

20 Jan: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 8 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5
21 Jan: Con 32 Lab 30 UKIP 15 Green 10 LD 8 SNP/Plaid 4
22 Jan: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 5
23 Jan: Lab 33 Con 31 UKIP 17 Green 8 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
25 Jan: Lab 32 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 5

[afleitch]

Natalie Bennett's interview this morning was an absolute unmitigated disaster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And somewhat unusually for a political interview widely described as such it actually was.

[You kip if you want to...]

Bring on the debates

[afleitch]

Sturgeon on Marr was fairly good...

[Clyde1998]

Here is the interview for those who haven't seen it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dFn8RIXOBE