UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Insula Dei]

Happy news from Michael Green.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland constituency polls to be released by Ashcroft next week - hopefully they'll clear up the Scotland situation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Constituency polls have never knowing cleared up any situation

[Clyde1998]

Constituency polls have never knowing cleared up any situation

No - but hopefully, they'll give us some sort of idea of where the SNP might be performing well and where Labour are holding on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But what if they're as accurate as all those Australian constituency polls in 2013

[Clyde1998]

But what if they're as accurate as all those Australian constituency polls in 2013

Then the Lib Dems might be leading in every seat

Ashcroft do ask two questions - which is quite confusing:
"If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"
"Thinking specifically about your own PARLIAMENTARY constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand FOR ELECTION TO WESTMINSTER there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?"

Surely there should only be one question on voting intentions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it is a little curious. Technically he should only be asking the second question.

[Lurker]

Yes, it is a little curious. Technically he should only be asking the second question.

Not to disparage the Britons, but would the average voter actually know who the parliamentary candidates in their own constituency are (that would certainly not be the case here - though I realize a larger portion will probably know in a FPTP system)? If not, then I would say the 1st question is more useful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They might not know about candidates in general, but they'll certainly know who their MP is, which is the main issue. As a general rule people are more likely to know that than who runs their local council or who their councillors are.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov/Evening Standard poll shows the following figures for the Great City Babylon: Labour 42, Con 32, UKIP 10, Greens 8, LDem 7

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some more national polls, just because.

Ashcroft: Labour 32, Con 32, UKIP 15, Green 9, LDem 6
Populus: Labour 35, Con 34, UKIP 13, LDem 9, Green 6, SNP 3

[EPG]

YouGov/Evening Standard poll shows the following figures for the Great City Babylon: Labour 42, Con 32, UKIP 10, Greens 8, LDem 7

Remarkably resilient for the Conservatives... I guess Ukip is less appealing in London, for some obvious reason, outside key mosaic micro-demographics like Millwall Man.

[Clyde1998]

Poll shows hardly anyone knows about UKIP & Green policies in key areas.

[Clyde1998]

Survation poll:
CON - 31% (+2% on December poll)
LAB - 30% (-2%)
UKIP - 23% (+3%)
LD - 7% (-4%)
SNP - 5% (+2%)
GRN - 3% (+1%)
OTH - 1% (N/C)

May2015 says with those results:
CON - 283 seats
LAB - 252 seats
SNP - 50 seats
LIB - 25 seats
UKIP - 17 seats
GRN - 1 seat
Others - 4 seats
NI - 18 seats

[You kip if you want to...]

Survation poll:
CON - 31% (+2% on December poll)
LAB - 30% (-2%)
UKIP - 23% (+3%)
LD - 7% (-4%)
SNP - 5% (+2%)
GRN - 3% (+1%)
OTH - 1% (N/C)

May2015 says with those results:
CON - 283 seats
LAB - 252 seats
SNP - 50 seats
LIB - 25 seats
UKIP - 17 seats
GRN - 1 seat
Others - 4 seats
NI - 18 seats

Depressing.

[DC Al Fine]

Poll shows hardly anyone knows about UKIP & Green policies in key areas.

How does that compare with the major parties?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

19% of people don't know what UKIP's policies on Europe are?

[MaxQue]

19% of people don't know what UKIP's policies on Europe are?

Well, roughly at least 20% of the population is essentially clueless when it comes to politics.

[Clyde1998]

Poll shows hardly anyone knows about UKIP & Green policies in key areas.

How does that compare with the major parties?

It's hard to tell - as most pollsters won't poll on the main three parties. I would assume that the average person would be able to know at least something about the main three parties and their policies in different categories though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not really sure if there's much point in paying attention to Survation.

[rob in cal]

Actually I'm pretty impressed that 80% did know about UKIP's stance on Europe.  But coming from the US one starts with pretty low expectations of the electorates knowledge.  Don't even get me started about when I do surveys of my young co-workers about whether they plan on voting, or know much about the various referenda on the ballot.

[ChrisDR68]

Clever poster from the Lib Dems out today. This is the theme I'd imagine their election campaign will be built around (if they've got any sense). The Labour sign pointing left and the Tory one pointing right shows a sense of humour too! lol

Sorry it's so big. I couldn't find a smaller one on the net...



It also takes the piss out of the Conservative poster that David Cameron is standing in front of here

[You kip if you want to...]

Clever poster from the Lib Dems out today. This is the theme I'd imagine their election campaign will be built around (if they've got any sense). The Labour sign pointing left and the Tory one pointing right shows a sense of humour too! lol

Sorry it's so big. I couldn't find a smaller one on the net...



It also takes the piss out of the Conservative poster that David Cameron is standing in front of here

And I imagine most voters'll just respond with shrug and think "Well they'll just go along with whoever wins". And their argument relies on voters forgetting that they actually enables 'reckless Tory cuts' rather than moderated them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.

No major change on the last Wales poll:

Lab +1; Con N/C; UKIP -2; Plaid -1; Green +3; Lib +1

Electoral Calculus' Wales predictor (where you sadly can't predict Plaid) says:
Lab - 36 seats
Plaid - 3
Con - 1
Lib - 0

Looks like the Conservatives won't do well in Wales then...