UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1225 on: January 27, 2015, 12:03:56 PM »

Nationally, this is what Sky News are predicting at the moment:

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afleitch
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« Reply #1226 on: January 27, 2015, 12:21:39 PM »

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.
No major change on the last Wales poll:

Lab +1; Con N/C; UKIP -2; Plaid -1; Green +3; Lib +1

Electoral Calculus' Wales predictor (where you sadly can't predict Plaid) says:
Lab - 36 seats
Plaid - 3
Con - 1
Lib - 0

Looks like the Conservatives won't do well in Wales then...

?

I have it no change. They lose Cardiff North but gain Brecon.  Labour gain Cardiff Central.
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Nathan
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« Reply #1227 on: January 27, 2015, 12:47:58 PM »

Nationally, this is what Sky News are predicting at the moment:



What a pickle.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1228 on: January 27, 2015, 01:06:24 PM »

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.
No major change on the last Wales poll:

Lab +1; Con N/C; UKIP -2; Plaid -1; Green +3; Lib +1

Electoral Calculus' Wales predictor (where you sadly can't predict Plaid) says:
Lab - 36 seats
Plaid - 3
Con - 1
Lib - 0

Looks like the Conservatives won't do well in Wales then...

?

I have it no change. They lose Cardiff North but gain Brecon.  Labour gain Cardiff Central.
It might be differences in the calculations, maybe...?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1229 on: January 27, 2015, 01:56:28 PM »

YouGov poll of Wales: Labour 37, Con 23, UKIP 16, Plaid 10, Green 8, LDem 6

Usual caveats about the historic issues with polling in Wales, etc, etc.

What's the official Welsh Nat line on being behind UKIP?

also LOL libdems.
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EPG
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« Reply #1230 on: January 27, 2015, 02:18:33 PM »

Actually I'm pretty impressed that 80% did know about UKIP's stance on Europe.  But coming from the US one starts with pretty low expectations of the electorates knowledge.  Don't even get me started about when I do surveys of my young co-workers about whether they plan on voting, or know much about the various referenda on the ballot.

It is high because Ukip's raison d'etre is Europe and they have been very prominent in media for the last three years. It is like asking what Labour thinks about trade unions, or what the Tea Party thinks about big government.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1231 on: January 27, 2015, 02:20:13 PM »

Or the Conservatives about property taxes.
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EPG
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« Reply #1232 on: January 27, 2015, 02:24:38 PM »

I would have said "or what the Greens think about the environment", but I guess people are more aware of the Greens' general disposition rather than anything concrete they want to do, lucky for them.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1233 on: January 27, 2015, 02:36:02 PM »


Would have made more sense for Andrew Neil to just have a look at the Greens' website for 15 minutes.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1234 on: January 27, 2015, 03:28:21 PM »

Opinions on Ceredigion?

Traditionally one of the more difficult to predict seats in the union...
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1235 on: January 27, 2015, 04:19:21 PM »

Opinions on Ceredigion?

Traditionally one of the more difficult to predict seats in the union...
Lib Dems will collapse, Plaid will stay steady, Conservatives will fall, Labour will gain. I think Plaid might gain that seat, despite the huge Lib Dem majority.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #1236 on: January 27, 2015, 05:15:13 PM »

Nationally, this is what Sky News are predicting at the moment:



Northern Ireland 18 leaves 6, missing parties are Plaid and Green so that would suggest (as every expert in the world says that Plaid will not GAIN either Ceredigion or Ynys Môn), Plaid 3, Green 1, ICHC 1 and Respect 1
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1237 on: January 27, 2015, 05:20:36 PM »

I don't think Respect will hold, but one seat is the Speaker. I think the ICHC is the National Health Action Party now - but they'll run the Conservatives close in Wyre Forest.

I think it's:
3 - Plaid
1 - Green
1 - NHA
1 - Speaker (unless he's listed as Conservative, then it'll be 4 Plaid).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1238 on: January 27, 2015, 05:20:56 PM »

No just no. ICHC doesn't exist anymore and as for Respect, the only appropriate answer is LOL.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1239 on: January 28, 2015, 11:42:14 AM »

I've been playing around with seats in Scotland - ahead of the Ashcroft polling results for Scottish seats.

Eilean Siar    (SNP) - SNP majority to increase
Northern Isles (LIB) - LIB hold, but seat to become a three-way marginal between LIB, SNP and LAB.
Dundee West (LAB) - Reduction in LAB majority, with the SNP more than halving it.
Glasgow South (LAB) - Massive LAB majority.
Argyll & Bute (LIB) - SNP gain. LIB to finish fourth.

I've only done five seats so far, but I will look at doing more. Based on my calculations, the SNP aren't doing as well as the national polls show.

The calculations are based on the recent Survation poll of Scotland, which noted the change in support between parties. All constituencies are calculated using the same changes between parties.

2010 Labour Voters (1,035,528)
LAB - 76.0%; SNP - 9.4%; CON - 3.7%; LIB - 1.5%; UKIP - 1.3%; GRN - 0.0%; OTH - 0.0%

2010 SNP Voters (491,386)
SNP - 90.9%; LAB - 2.9%; UKIP - 2.7% Sad ; CON - 1.5%; LIB - 0.5%; GRN - 0.5%; OTH - 1.2%

2010 Lib Dem Voters (465,471)
LIB - 47.7%; SNP - 21.6%; LAB - 19.1%; GRN - 7.1%; CON - 4.6%; UKIP - 0.0%; OTH - 0.0%

2010 Conservative Voters (412,855)
CON - 76.0%; SNP - 9.4%; UKIP - 7.9%; LAB - 5.2%; LIB - 1.5%; GRN - 0.0%; OTH - 0.0%
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1240 on: January 28, 2015, 01:00:44 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 01:04:40 PM by You kip if you want to... »

Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

One thing Labour should be worrying about is what's happened in Wales. They've hit 54% in this parliament, but now they're on 37% (up 1 on 2010). UKIP is clearly hurting Labour a lot more than the Cons in Wales. I imagine UKIP'll get some respectable (scarily close) 2nd places in the Valleys and in the likes of Wrexham. Only gaining their two targets in Cardiff is perfectly fine, but it's simply not good enough.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1241 on: January 28, 2015, 01:12:58 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2015, 01:22:07 PM by Clyde1998 »

Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

Using the Survation poll - that had a 20 point SNP lead over Labour (http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Cross-tab-Record-tables_1_26.pdf) which is probably a mid range poll.

Lab - 42 seats (+1)
SNP - 14 seats (+8)
Con - 2 seats (+1)
Lib - 1 seat (-10)

That's a shock.

EDIT - Map
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1242 on: January 28, 2015, 01:17:56 PM »

Apparently this is Wales Polling Week, because an ICM poll for the BBC is also out: Labour 38, Con 21, UKIP 13, Plaid 12, LDem 7, Greens 6
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afleitch
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« Reply #1243 on: January 28, 2015, 01:29:40 PM »

Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

Using the Survation poll - that had a 20 point SNP lead over Labour (http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Cross-tab-Record-tables_1_26.pdf) which is probably a mid range poll.

Lab - 42 seats (+1)
SNP - 14 seats (+8)
Con - 2 seats (+1)
Lib - 1 seat (-10)

That's a shock.

EDIT - Map


I don't mean to be rude (because I called you out on your Wales projection) but how on earth are you getting these results? The figures for Survation on a crude swing would give the SNP 51 seats. How are you calculating, even for fun, that the SNP with a 20 point lead over Labour would only gain 1 seat from them?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1244 on: January 28, 2015, 01:40:24 PM »

Thing is, Scottish polls have shown everything from a 10 point lead to a 28 point lead this month. How on Earth can anyone project what's happening up there?

Of course, 10 points behind would still be a complete disaster for Labour, but I'm sure they'd take it considering the last few months that Scottish Labour has had.

Using the Survation poll - that had a 20 point SNP lead over Labour (http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Cross-tab-Record-tables_1_26.pdf) which is probably a mid range poll.

Lab - 42 seats (+1)
SNP - 14 seats (+8)
Con - 2 seats (+1)
Lib - 1 seat (-10)

That's a shock.

EDIT - Map


I don't mean to be rude (because I called you out on your Wales projection) but how on earth are you getting these results? The figures for Survation on a crude swing would give the SNP 51 seats. How are you calculating, even for fun, that the SNP with a 20 point lead over Labour would only gain 1 seat from them?
My Wales one was a random guess, btw.

I don't think these look right - I'm just going through the calculations again.

Survation published figures on how voters are moving from each party to another - I may have used the wrong numbers... (I hope I have - because that'll mean the Survation tables are very wrong...)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1245 on: January 28, 2015, 01:52:44 PM »

One thing Labour should be worrying about is what's happened in Wales. They've hit 54% in this parliament, but now they're on 37% (up 1 on 2010). UKIP is clearly hurting Labour a lot more than the Cons in Wales. I imagine UKIP'll get some respectable (scarily close) 2nd places in the Valleys and in the likes of Wrexham. Only gaining their two targets in Cardiff is perfectly fine, but it's simply not good enough.

When Labour in Wales was polling the 50s, Labour nationally was generally polling in the 40s. If you think Midterm polling figures are 'real' then Wales has many famous bridges that could be sold to you at a knock down price. There's also the usual issue of volatility in Welsh polling, which is a longstanding one. Two additional points need addressing here:

1. The Tories in Wales have a low ceiling and a high floor; the people who vote Tory mostly would never dream of voting for anyone else, the people don't vote Tory (even those with right-wing views) mostly would never dream of voting for them. Plaid are in a somewhat similar boat (absent occasional freak protest votes), albeit on a smaller scale. Even though Labour's ceiling in Wales is rather more flexible than either those parties, its floor is about as solid: an unusually high proportion of voters in Wales are partisan die hards. Most of the remainder of the electorate, though, are extraordinarily fickle; generally more so than in England.

2. There aren't many marginal seats in Wales (hey on paper even Cardiff Central isn't). From a Labour perspective (and ignoring the Cardiff marginals) there's a low Plaid majority in Arfon and a comparatively low one in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, there are the two Pembrokeshire seats (which may be harder to gain in reality than on paper), there's the Vale of Glamorgan (which is a strange socially polarised constituency), and I guess there's Aberconwy, but I'll believe that when I see it. Incumbency can matter a lot in all of these seats. Here's the fun part though; most of Arfon hasn't had a Labour MP since the 1970s, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr was lost in 2001, and one of the Pembrokes was lost in 2005 (as was Cardiff Central).
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1246 on: January 28, 2015, 02:03:39 PM »

I think it just re-emphasises that you can't read tables and are really bad at making basic calculations.
I've corrected something (and I'm not 100% sure what) - but that seems to have solved it. I'll upload the correct map in a moment.
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YL
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« Reply #1247 on: January 28, 2015, 02:40:21 PM »

2. There aren't many marginal seats in Wales (hey on paper even Cardiff Central isn't). From a Labour perspective (and ignoring the Cardiff marginals) there's a low Plaid majority in Arfon and a comparatively low one in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, there are the two Pembrokeshire seats (which may be harder to gain in reality than on paper), there's the Vale of Glamorgan (which is a strange socially polarised constituency), and I guess there's Aberconwy, but I'll believe that when I see it. Incumbency can matter a lot in all of these seats. Here's the fun part though; most of Arfon hasn't had a Labour MP since the 1970s, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr was lost in 2001, and one of the Pembrokes was lost in 2005 (as was Cardiff Central).

Aberconwy and the two Pembrokeshire seats are all dominated in electorate, if not area, terms by their more Anglicised areas, aren't they?  (Which makes "Preseli Pembrokeshire" a rather odd choice of name, but there we go.)

Does anyone have a feel for why Ceredigion swung so much to the Lib Dems in 2010?  If I had a feel for that I might feel more comfortable guessing whether or not it'll swing back to Plaid...
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1248 on: January 28, 2015, 02:46:13 PM »

2. There aren't many marginal seats in Wales (hey on paper even Cardiff Central isn't). From a Labour perspective (and ignoring the Cardiff marginals) there's a low Plaid majority in Arfon and a comparatively low one in Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, there are the two Pembrokeshire seats (which may be harder to gain in reality than on paper), there's the Vale of Glamorgan (which is a strange socially polarised constituency), and I guess there's Aberconwy, but I'll believe that when I see it. Incumbency can matter a lot in all of these seats. Here's the fun part though; most of Arfon hasn't had a Labour MP since the 1970s, Carmarthen East & Dinefwr was lost in 2001, and one of the Pembrokes was lost in 2005 (as was Cardiff Central).

Aberconwy and the two Pembrokeshire seats are all dominated in electorate, if not area, terms by their more Anglicised areas, aren't they?  (Which makes "Preseli Pembrokeshire" a rather odd choice of name, but there we go.)

Does anyone have a feel for why Ceredigion swung so much to the Lib Dems in 2010?  If I had a feel for that I might feel more comfortable guessing whether or not it'll swing back to Plaid...

Students and incumbency?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1249 on: January 28, 2015, 02:54:59 PM »

OK... Here we go again...

Based also on an estimate of how many new voters there are for each seat.



SNP - 37
Lab - 21
Con - 2
Lib - 1

Seems more realistic.
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