UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Harry Hayfield]

Why has a turnaround like this happened? I just don't get it.

It's the Labour YES voters who wanted independence to ensure that a Conservative government could never govern Scotland. The memories of the Conservatives from 1979 - 1997 are still fresh in a lot of Scottish minds.

[afleitch]

Why has a turnaround like this happened? I just don't get it.

A full answer would take a whole day, but here’s a rundown.

1.  The SNP have been the dominant party in Scotland since 2007. Nobody seems to have noticed that yet. The only national election they haven’t won since then was the 2010 GE. One year after that election in which Labour won 42% of the vote, the SNP won 45% of the vote. In seats like Glenrothes where the SNP were miles behind, the following year they were miles ahead. Despite Labour winning big in 2010, Labour failed to form a government. Which would also be a reoccurring theme during the referendum campaign.

2. In Holyrood opinion polls since 2011, the SNP have 9 times out of 10 polled as well (and Labour as badly) as the ‘one off’ 2011 landslide. In Westminster opinion polls, Labour had been underperforming going into 2014. The SNP rose during the campaign and took off just as it finished. The SNP have levelled off, perhaps not coincidently at the magic ‘45’; their level of support in 2011 and the level of Yes support in 2014.

3. A national referendum on independence saw the highest turnout in Scotland since the common man got the vote. Yes ‘only’ got 45%. Labour ran the pro-union campaign side by side with the Tories offering Scotland ‘sh-t on a stick’ should we become independent. The Yes vote polled most strongly in Labour strongholds that the SNP even failed to win in 2011. There was a strong correlation between the Yes vote and Labour’s core (and some religious correlation too) This might explain heavier swings in these areas.

4. In the aftermath, Alex Salmond a divisive figure who had unhealthily high approval ratings for a leader in a western democracy resigned. He was replaced by an even more popular but less divisive Nicola Sturgeon. Labour leader Johann Lamont resigned citing intrusion from Westminster Labour. A leadership election resulted in Labour electing a Blairite, right of the party, Westminster MP, Jim Murphy as leader to face off against left wing Nicola Sturgeon to help Labour win back the left. Jim Murphy’s personal ratings are poor and so far has not moved the opinion polls in either direction.

5. The ‘sugar on a stick’ weekend in August when a poll showed Yes ahead led to the unionist parties offer basically anything. It is possible that this swayed voters back to No but who knows. In either event being purposely vague translated as being deceitful. When the Smith Commission reported, this was not seen as ‘Devo-Max’ so voters felt they had been had.  Voters could feel that way, and the SNP could say the same because the unionist parties had been deliberately vague beforehand. It did not help that the Labour Party in the Smith Commission were the least in favour of further devolution out of all the represented parties.

6. There is one Nationalist party fighting for ‘the 45%’. There are three Unionist parties fighting for ‘the 55%’, if voters cleave along those lines. However, You can’t stop Labour being wiped out if it’s Labour voters who are the ones moving to the SNP. There’s not enough Tory/Lib Dem voters in these seats to make any difference and there’s no suggestion that those voters are wanting to vote Labour. Ashcroft’s internals for all the seats polled where it’s a Labour/SNP fight (that’s every seat but Inverness and Gordon) show that 34% of those who voted Labour in 2010 will vote SNP. Only 60% are sticking with Labour. Amongst 2010 Tory voters (as little as there were) 9% are voting Labour but 10% SNP. Amongst Lib Dems, 19% are voting Labour but 47% SNP. So in the Central Scotland seats polled, more Lib Dems and potentially more Tories are switching to the SNP than to Labour.

7. If nothing changes, then Labour having lost their ‘best’ during the constituency wipe out in 2011 will suffer the same fate again. Their membership (official figures have not been released since 2008) has been decimated, with some CLP’s really struggling while the SNP have reached 100,000.

8. The SNP ran their 2011 campaign on optimism. The Yes campaign was ran the same way. Labour ran their 2011 on negativity. The No campaign was ran the same way. I don’t even think that’s a partisan statement; both camps on both occasions have admitted this is the case. Optimism is infectious. It will run out one day and perhaps the SNP will take a disproportionate hit in the future but for now the ‘mood’ of positivity, at least amongst half the population since before the referendum has continued into this year’s new long campaign. 45% don’t just ‘give up’ on believing in something just because it was lost. Voters, even No voters keen on further devolution, know that the SNP can hold feet to the fire and secure complete devolution to Scotland an potentially a federal settlement for the whole of the UK.

[Clyde1998]

Why has a turnaround like this happened? I just don't get it.

It's mainly Labour Yes voters and Lib Dem 2010 voters switching to the SNP.

Labour Yes voters due to the SNP being pro-independence and Lib Dem 2010 voters due to SNP being quite close politically and they're a credible collation option now.

The seats polled leaves Edinburgh, Aberdeen and South Scotland unpolled - leading me to think these aren't the only constituency polls from Scotland before the election...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though these are in line with other published Scottish polls, it's worth pointing out (and regulars know what they're about to read already ) that the record of constituency opinion polling is poor. Quite possibly the overall picture is indicative,* but don't assume that you have anything like an accurate snapshot of the political mood in any individual constituency.

As an aside (and this can be read however you, whoever you are, feel like), I'll point out that many of those Labour percentages would normally be enough to win a seat and even to do so comfortably.

_{*Although there have been cases where that hasn't been so.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why has a turnaround like this happened? I just don't get it.

Massive upsurge in nationalist sentiment as a result of the polarising nature of the referendum campaign. Additionally, it should be noted the 2010 General Election in Scotland was different to the rest of the UK for Gordon Brown related reasons; Labour dropped by over 6pts nationally, but increased by 2.5pts in Scotland. There are some other issues as well (and probably these are the ones with greatest flexibility) but those two are fundamental. Also, of course, Scotland has the most volatile electorate in Great Britain and has done for a very long time.

[Clyde1998]

Though these are in line with other published Scottish polls, it's worth pointing out (and regulars know what they're about to read already ) that the record of constituency opinion polling is poor. Quite possibly the overall picture is indicative,* but don't assume that you have anything like an accurate snapshot of the political mood in any individual constituency.

As an aside (and this can be read however you, whoever you are, feel like), I'll point out that many of those Labour percentages would normally be enough to win a seat and even to do so comfortably.

_{*Although there have been cases where that hasn't been so.}

Additionally, they're weighted on 2010 votes - which really shouldn't be done for Scotland polls (as people can confuse their 2010 and 2011 votes - as 40% voted Labour in 2010 and 45% voted SNP in 2011). So the 2010 weighting might be affected by Labour Westminster voters saying that they voted SNP (when they didn't in 2010, but did in 2011).

[Clyde1998]

SNP are now 5/1 to win all the Scottish seats.

Here's a hint - it won't happen.

[rpryor03]

Current polling simulations puts Labour 50 away from the majority and Labour/SNP 2 away from a majority. Maybe Lab/SNP/PC?

[Clyde1998]

Current polling simulations puts Labour 50 away from the majority and Labour/SNP 2 away from a majority. Maybe Lab/SNP/PC?

Would make sense - SNP and Plaid sit as a single group in parliament at the moment. However, Labour may wish to go for supply and demand - without going into a formal collation.

[Joe Republic]

Andrew - are you still a Tory?  Or, since your Yes vote in September, has your partisan allegiance... shall we say, migrated?

[afleitch]

Andrew - are you still a Tory?  Or, since your Yes vote in September, has your partisan allegiance... shall we say, migrated?

I ended my membership when the majority of Tories didn't vote for SSM. It was their last hurdle on that issue and they blew it, despite the fact their leader in Scotland is an out lesbian who voted for it. So that ship sailed before the referendum. I had been gifting the SNP my vote in Scottish elections since 2007 and now I'd say I'm firmly behind them. Do I want a Tory win in the GE? Yes, because Milliband would be a disaster but I'd be happy for a Labour/SNP coalition because first off it would be hilarious and secondly, it might actually give us independence in all but name.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour won't go into Coalition/supply with the SNP.

If the Tories come out as the largest party (even if smaller than Lab+SNP+PC), Cameron stays in. I'd be pretty confident to call that a sure thing.

The possible positive, in the long term, for Labour, to come from the SNP landslide is that some of the big hitters might end up getting themselves on a list for 2016, give Scottish Labour at Holyrood the talent it's been dying for since 1999.

[Clyde1998]

Labour won't go into Coalition/supply with the SNP.

If the Tories come out as the largest party (even if smaller than Lab+SNP+PC), Cameron stays in. I'd be pretty confident to call that a sure thing.

The possible positive, in the long term, for Labour, to come from the SNP landslide is that some of the big hitters might end up getting themselves on a list for 2016, give Scottish Labour at Holyrood the talent it's been dying for since 1999.

I think that would actually be good for the Scottish Parliament if that happened. At the moment (I know it's a long way off, but) the SNP look like their on course for another landslide. If that continues it would just become a question of whether the SNP won a majority or not, as they wouldn't have any major competition.

It might benefit Labour in all elections in Scotland if they had their big Scottish names in Scotland - as it currently seems as if the Labour MSPs are under the control of London Labour (which is unpopular in Scotland). If the larger names went to Holyrood, they'd be able to stand on their own policies (that London Labour may not support) which the people of Scotland agree with.

I'd think that Labour would have learned from the 2011 Scottish election - where they didn't put their big names on the list, where they contested consistencies. People like Murphy would have a certain seat in that case.

It'll also be interesting to see what the Lib Dem MPs in Scotland do if they lose their seats - Holyrood might get a lot stronger with the former-Lib Dem and Labour MPs...

[EPG]

But... there's a reason why ambitious Labour politicians prefer Westminster to Holyrood.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour won't go into Coalition/supply with the SNP.

If the Tories come out as the largest party (even if smaller than Lab+SNP+PC), Cameron stays in. I'd be pretty confident to call that a sure thing.

The possible positive, in the long term, for Labour, to come from the SNP landslide is that some of the big hitters might end up getting themselves on a list for 2016, give Scottish Labour at Holyrood the talent it's been dying for since 1999.

I think that would actually be good for the Scottish Parliament if that happened. At the moment (I know it's a long way off, but) the SNP look like their on course for another landslide. If that continues it would just become a question of whether the SNP won a majority or not, as they wouldn't have any major competition.

It might benefit Labour in all elections in Scotland if they had their big Scottish names in Scotland - as it currently seems as if the Labour MSPs are under the control of London Labour (which is unpopular in Scotland). If the larger names went to Holyrood, they'd be able to stand on their own policies (that London Labour may not support) which the people of Scotland agree with.

I'd think that Labour would have learned from the 2011 Scottish election - where they didn't put their big names on the list, where they contested consistencies. People like Murphy would have a certain seat in that case.

It'll also be interesting to see what the Lib Dem MPs in Scotland do if they lose their seats - Holyrood might get a lot stronger with the former-Lib Dem and Labour MPs...

I can also see many Labour MPs in the PLP becoming PR converts literally overnight on election night as they see the likes of Jim Murphy and Margaret Curran losing their seats.

Without Scotland, Labour's only path back to office could be PR. (OR a sudden swing left, taking the public with them, but do we really think that'll ever happen in a country where things like Benefit Street and Immigration documentaries are plastered all over the TV every night?)

[Thomas D]

I suspect Labour will get in bed with whoever they have to if it means getting to 326 seats.

[doktorb]

I suspect that you are correct

[Diouf]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5XoO9RQYtY

If this is the response of Scottish Labour, then we should probably look more at their chances of losing Glasgow North East as well than their chances of regaining the lead in some of the other seats.

First of all, it is quite clearly a lie and one which can easily be shown to be just that. For example by looking at the actions and statements by Labour after the 2010 election.
But also it suggests that no matter how favourable the composition of parliament might be for Labour, they will refuse to form a government if they are not the single biggest party. I'm not really sure they thought this through.

[YL]

Speaking of large swings, we have a Survation poll of Sheffield Hallam: Lab 33 LD 23 Con 22 Green 12 UKIP 9.

Take with appropriate quantities of salt, especially the ward crossbreaks, which are hilarious, though given the methodology (no reallocation of don't knows) the headline figures tell a similar story to the other polls of the constituency (including the ICM/Oakeshott one Survation themselves publicly criticised).

[Clyde1998]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5XoO9RQYtY

If this is the response of Scottish Labour, then we should probably look more at their chances of losing Glasgow North East as well than their chances of regaining the lead in some of the other seats.

First of all, it is quite clearly a lie and one which can easily be shown to be just that. For example by looking at the actions and statements by Labour after the 2010 election.
But also it suggests that no matter how favourable the composition of parliament might be for Labour, they will refuse to form a government if they are not the single biggest party. I'm not really sure they thought this through.

Sadly, that is real. Which is probably part of the reason they're doing so badly...

[Clyde1998]

Speaking of large swings, we have a Survation poll of Sheffield Hallam: Lab 33 LD 23 Con 22 Green 12 UKIP 9.

Take with appropriate quantities of salt, especially the ward crossbreaks, which are hilarious, though given the methodology (no reallocation of don't knows) the headline figures tell a similar story to the other polls of the constituency (including the ICM/Oakeshott one Survation themselves publicly criticised).

Survation's previous constituency polls - before by-elections - have been pretty poor, especially when compared to the Ashcroft ones. I wouldn't read too much into this.

[windjammer]

Does the map still extremely favor labour???

[Clyde1998]

Does the map still extremely favor labour???

In which part of the country? Nationally, it's very close between the Conservatives and Labour.

[You kip if you want to...]

Does the map still extremely favor labour???

The SNP surge has basically neutralised the differential turnout effect that helps Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I can't be bothered to watch any electoral propaganda video by anyone (life really is too short), but it is a fact that the SNP often relied on Tory votes at Holyrood when they were a narrow minority government (2007-11).