UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Moment I knew that the AV Referendum was dead as a doornail: when someone with distinctly more liberal views than me on most things remarked that they quite liked 'dear old first past the post'.

[You kip if you want to...]

Should Douglas Alexander go down, who do we think becomes Foreign Secretary should Labour win?

Scotland Office will, of course, go to whoever's left. Willie Bain?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Distribution of ministerial posts often looks very different to distribution of shadow ministerial posts, so even if he wins he might not get to be Foreign Secretary. Way too early to speculate about these matters.

[SNJ1985]

So let's say that the Tories get 33 percent to Labour's 32 percent, but Labour ends up with more seats... Do you think a scenario like that would lead to increased demands for electoral reform within the Tories?

I think that would really depend on how permanent the Tories think the situation is. If they think a majority is just around the corner, they won't bother.

Another element is that sticking to FPTP is the conservative option in the UK. 

I wonder how UKIP feels about it, then, given that it puts them at a disadvantage. I don't see anything about it on their website.

[Joe Republic]

^ Farage endorsed AV during the 2011 referendum.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2011/05/farage-av-is-the-thin-of-the-wedge-thats-why-we-support-it/

[Zinneke]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

[ChrisDR68]

^ Farage endorsed AV during the 2011 referendum.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2011/05/farage-av-is-the-thin-of-the-wedge-thats-why-we-support-it/

AV isn't a proportional system though. In fact in some ways it's FPTP on speed as it can easily result in an already one sided result being even more one sided

The Lib Dems were foolish to agree to a referendum on AV in 2010 (as well as foolish to agree to a number of essentially Tory policies in key areas at the same time... although that's a whole other discussion ).

I remember at the time William Hague told the Libs it was the Tories final offer on this issue and they could take it or leave it. In hindsight they should have called the Tories bluff as they were in quite a strong negotiating position at the time and insisted on a more proportional system being offered on the referendum ballot paper.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think by this point its clear that we can just say that 'The LibDems were foolish' and leave it at that...

[Phony Moderate]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

[Serenity Now]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

Their UK party charts are preposterous, to say the least.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

AHA. That's bordering on offensive.

[EPG]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

There is little information about Bradford West abroad, though there are lots of Yorkshire delegates here whou might know.

[morgieb]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

hahahahahahahahh

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

Their UK party charts are preposterous, to say the least.

What are you saying that Labour was more left-wing under Foot than it was under Harold Wilson? (They actually think that 1983 labour was to the right of a decade previous)

I do like the implied insult to Labour voters. 'Bloody plebs don't know what is good for them' Such tolerant lefties the Compass crew.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

There is little information about Bradford West abroad, though there are lots of Yorkshire delegates here whou might know.

You wouldn't just need to be from Yorkshire (or even Bradford) to know, you'd need to be from the Mirpuri Pakistani community in Bradford...

[doktorb]

I think by this point its clear that we can just say that 'The LibDems were foolish' and leave it at that...

Providing stable government when the country needed it, not foolish

[SNJ1985]

^ Farage endorsed AV during the 2011 referendum.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2011/05/farage-av-is-the-thin-of-the-wedge-thats-why-we-support-it/

Ah, thanks.

[Zinneke]

Is Galloway heading for another Labour counter-attack in a GE or can he redo what he did in Bethnall Green? Who is the likely candidate to replace him?

There is little information about Bradford West abroad, though there are lots of Yorkshire delegates here whou might know.

You wouldn't just need to be from Yorkshire (or even Bradford) to know, you'd need to be from the Mirpuri Pakistani community in Bradford...

Galloway won the election openly condemning such tribalist politics. He might even have attracted white middle class votes from that stance. I imagine Labour have learned their lesson.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Galloway won the election openly condemning such tribalist politics. He might even have attracted white middle class votes from that stance. I imagine Labour have learned their lesson.

Ahahaha, yeah, right. What he actually did (and quite brilliantly) was use clan politics while also loudly condemning it. In his own very, very specific way he may actually be a genius (e.g. he claimed to be a better Muslim than his (Muslim) opponent despite not actually being a Muslim. It was a devastatingly successful personal attack).

[EPG]

Look at the man's M.O., touring the country looking for hotspots - he would be dangerous if he were, like Farage, less obviously repulsive.

[ChrisDR68]

It's amazing Gorgeous George has had any sort of career in politics after this episode in the presence of a certain late Iraqi leader

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIy_GmvUElE

He also comes across a slightly mad and very angry on shows like Question Time. A bit of a nutter? Hmm... yes I think so

[Zinneke]

Galloway won the election openly condemning such tribalist politics. He might even have attracted white middle class votes from that stance. I imagine Labour have learned their lesson.

Ahahaha, yeah, right. What he actually did (and quite brilliantly) was use clan politics while also loudly condemning it. In his own very, very specific way he may actually be a genius (e.g. he claimed to be a better Muslim than his (Muslim) opponent despite not actually being a Muslim. It was a devastatingly successful personal attack).

He sort of towed a pan-Muslim or pan-Religious line. Don't get me wrong for me Galloway is a violent social reactionary, but he is right when he says he won wards in Bradford that were not majority Musim, and that by and large he erased tribal politics that would have present under Imran Hussein.

Tower Hamlets is another story though. 

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos-MORI:

Labour - 36% (+2)
Tories - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 9% (-2)
Greens - 7% (-1)
Lib Dems - 6% (-2)

So UKIP may be showing signs of decline, but it doesn't seem to be helping the Tories.

[You kip if you want to...]

Ipsos-MORI:

Labour - 36% (+2)
Tories - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 9% (-2)
Greens - 7% (-1)
Lib Dems - 6% (-2)

So UKIP may be showing signs of decline, but it doesn't seem to be helping the Tories.

One poll. No one else is showing this.

Still no maj for Labour though.

[Gary J]

Presumably if Lib Dem pressure in 2010 had got a PR referendum, it would have faced exactly the same Tory misrepresentation as the AV referendum did. At least there is still the remote chance that at some future date PR will re-emerge on to the agenda, which would have been prevented if a PR referendum had been lost.