UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/13/milly-dowler-row-over-mil_n_6676728.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

You've gotta feel at little bit sorry for EdM.

They're trying everything and seeing what sticks.

The Conservatives and the Conservative supporting press don't need to try so hard. Ed Miliband is a weak prime ministerial candidate and everybody knows it.

That only matters if you make the argument that he's up against a strong PM. David Cameron isn't a strong PM of the likes of a Thatcher or a Blair.

If Ed was so weak, so unelectable, he wouldn't be getting the kitchen sink thrown at him by the Tories and the Tory press in the way that he is because the Tories would want a positive campaign.

[Thomas D]

So whose support is more likely to collapse between now and May 7: The Greens or UKIP?

[You kip if you want to...]

So whose support is more likely to collapse between now and May 7: The Greens or UKIP?

The Greens.

[EPG]

The Greens appear unusually dependent on first-time voters, under-30 voters, ex-Lib Dems, students, and generally people who don't interact much with state or traditional community institutions like schools/hospitals. None of these is a good pillar for a British political party to stand on. A while back, I described their strongest seat in Brighton, Pavilion as having

Favourable demographics: largely young-adult households without dependents, very non-religious, transient, rather well-off compared to the country as a whole.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Greens appear unusually dependent on first-time voters, under-30 voters, ex-Lib Dems, students, and generally people who don't interact much with state or traditional community institutions like schools/hospitals. None of these is a good pillar for a British political party to stand on. A while back, I described their strongest seat in Brighton, Pavilion as having

Favourable demographics: largely young-adult households without dependents, very non-religious, transient, rather well-off compared to the country as a whole.

Exactly the people who latched onto Cleggmania.

Then didn't turn up on election day.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So whose support is more likely to collapse between now and May 7: The Greens or UKIP?

Both are potentially vulnerable to that kind of thing (don't confuse that for a forecast). Broadcast regulations and the reality of a competitive race for PM mean that UKIP won't dominate media coverage (which they kind of sort of have done over the past couple of years), even if they have managed to guarantee not being treated as also-rans. Nigel Farage will at least get his five minutes. On the latter point the Greens have not been so lucky.

[EPG]

Labour's very slow progress in choosing a Bradford West candidate. AWS; Galloway describes one of them as a "carpet-bagger"!

[EPG]

If we're believing on average that the Greens are more likely to wilt down to about 4% or so, we should be revising upward our belief that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd like to see a detailed poll of the 40% or so of those intending to vote Labour who think Ed Miliband is doing badly; How firm are they in their intentions? What could make them change their minds? etc

[YL]

This week's YouGov polls:

10 Feb: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Feb: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
12 Feb: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
13 Feb: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
15 Feb: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4

[YL]

Labour's very slow progress in choosing a Bradford West candidate. AWS; Galloway describes one of them as a "carpet-bagger"!

Update.  There's now a shortlist of three, with hustings next Saturday, two locals and a Tower Hamlets councillor.

[EPG]

I'd like to see a detailed poll of the 40% or so of those intending to vote Labour who think Ed Miliband is doing badly; How firm are they in their intentions? What could make them change their minds? etc

It's not easy because the sample will be t * 30 per cent * 40 per cent of the sample, where t is filtered expected turnout. This will not be more than ten per cent of all respondents. One example is the latest Ashcroft poll: 73 Labour-intending voters don't favour Miliband as a better PM than Cameron.

[doktorb]

This week's YouGov polls:

10 Feb: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Feb: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
12 Feb: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
13 Feb: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
15 Feb: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4

There's been no significant movement for months. If we do have leadership debates, the impact is going to be very interesting

[Phony Moderate]

So, 9PM tomorrow night on Channel 4...

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-02-15/channel-4-elects-nigel-farage-prime-minister-in-new-drama-ukip-the-first-100-days

[Thomas D]

I've seen 2 polls this morning. One had Conservatives up 36-34 and the other had Labour up 33-31.

Glad to see UK polling can be just as erratic as ours.

[Phony Moderate]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections and their final poll for last year's European elections had UKIP in third place. If the term 'gold standard' can be applied to any polling outfit then it would be YouGov (despite that now-legendary 51-49 Yes poll). Certainly they are the most reliable for getting a sense of current VI because, obviously, they release five polls per week.

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM, like Ashcroft's national polls, get headlines because of their violent swings poll-to-poll so they make for fun "TORY SURGE" "MILIBAND ON A ROLL" style headlines.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

None of the British polling firms are really good, it's just that some are terrible.

[Phony Moderate]

And now Ashcroft has Labour back into the lead with a sharpish drop in the Tory share: Labour 31, Tories 30 (-4), UKIP 16 (+2), Lib Dems 9, Greens 8 (+2).

[ChrisDR68]

Excellent article from Andrew Rawnsley about the Conservative fund raising ball held last week:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/15/tories-black-white-ball-fundraiser-rich-arrogance

As is this comment from a poster underneath it which probably explains why they somewhat mysteriously cling on to the status as one of the big political parties of the UK:

"A bit like Millwall fans, everyone hates us but we don't care, the Tories are saying 'We are rich, so are our donors, and we don't give a sh**t about the rest of you'.

The fact they still manage to attract 32% of support in the latest opinion polls is a source of mystery to me. I'd suspect a large percentage of their number are born, anti-union Labour haters"

[windjammer]

UKIP at 14%?

Really?

[EPG]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections

Who were the most accurate pollsters?
-

"This newspaper" speculates on Ukip in 2020, a topic I must admit had not crossed my mind. But the Alliance survived for years after its breakthrough, even though it didn't do well at their best general election, so perhaps Ukip will persist in turn. It does make sense that if Labour get into government these days, they probably won't increase their vote at the next general election, nor will they placate concerns about immigration or the north-south wage gap, so gains in the north would be a prospect. This putative strategy requires no co-operation with the Conservatives.

[Phony Moderate]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections

Who were the most accurate pollsters?

I believe NOP was spot on with all three major party percentages in 2005 (who don't seem to be active anymore). In 2010, it was actually some obscure Indian organization IIRC.

[afleitch]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections

Who were the most accurate pollsters?

I believe NOP was spot on with all three major party percentages in 2005 (who don't seem to be active anymore). In 2010, it was actually some obscure Indian organization IIRC.

The British Polling Council declared ICM the most accurate in 2010. It was the second most accurate after YouGov in the 2014 European Elections (given that it's last poll was two weeks before the election itself)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"This newspaper" speculates on Ukip in 2020, a topic I must admit had not crossed my mind.

Ah, metropolitan ignorance as a substitute for actual analysis. With uncritical recycling of party talking points and the inevitable appearance of dreadful hack academics peddling spurious theories as facts. And this from The Economist. Journalism is dead.