UK General Election - May 7th 2015
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 274997 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1550 on: February 25, 2015, 07:17:31 PM »

Another YouGov London poll: Labour 42, Con 34, UKIP 9, LDem 8, Greens 7
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1551 on: February 25, 2015, 07:50:44 PM »

What? Labour polled just shy of 37% in the capital in 2010.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1552 on: February 25, 2015, 07:52:57 PM »

What? Labour polled just shy of 37% in the capital in 2010.

Ah of course, got my data mismatched. It's late.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1553 on: February 25, 2015, 07:57:05 PM »

We've all been there Smiley
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1554 on: February 25, 2015, 08:19:04 PM »

The blonde idiot's response: "I, uh, think this is, uh, welcome news, to, eh, the, my party and, uh, we will, uh, will win and, uh, everyone, eh loves me, purely, uh, on the, uh basis of my, eh, hair."
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« Reply #1555 on: February 26, 2015, 01:50:56 AM »

Worthless as it is, I had a dream about election night...or at least the exit poll. It showed Lab 300, Con 230, UKIP 9, SNP 4 (yes, four)...can't remember the Lib Dem number, but it must have been in the region of 80-85. The analysis lady (not someone who I've ever seen on TV before btw) said that 300 would be better for Labour than expected, whereas the Tory number would be about as expected.

So, be prepared for Cleggmania 2.0...not. Tongue
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1556 on: February 26, 2015, 06:23:30 AM »

Worthless as it is, I had a dream about election night...or at least the exit poll. It showed Lab 300, Con 230, UKIP 9, SNP 4 (yes, four)...can't remember the Lib Dem number, but it must have been in the region of 80-85. The analysis lady (not someone who I've ever seen on TV before btw) said that 300 would be better for Labour than expected, whereas the Tory number would be about as expected.

So, be prepared for Cleggmania 2.0...not. Tongue

Are you interested in working for the Canadian polling industry?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1557 on: February 26, 2015, 01:52:18 PM »

I don't remember this being posted on here - the 2015 Political Compass graph for the UK.



Compared to 2010:



Conservatives have moved right and slightly more authoritarian.
Labour slightly more liberal than they were in 2010.
Lib Dems have moved into the Right-Authoritarian box.
UKIP are more authoritarian and slightly move left.
SNP and Plaid are slightly more authoritarian.
Green are in the same position.
Scottish Socialists and Respect have moved left.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1558 on: February 26, 2015, 01:58:31 PM »

...
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1559 on: February 26, 2015, 02:01:55 PM »

lol, is that a joke
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1560 on: February 26, 2015, 02:30:24 PM »

For which parties? I have no idea how they calculate political party positions though.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1561 on: February 26, 2015, 02:31:12 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2015, 02:34:34 PM by CrabCake »

The sdlp is obviously the most appalling misplacement at a a first glance. Like ... What? Why is it so far from Labour? what?


Then there are the obligatory absurdities focusing on the PC's weird personal grudge against Labour: The SNP are economically to the left of Labour; and the Lib Dems are of course perfect economic matches with Labour - In fact they were left of Labour in 2010!

...

What drugs do these morons take? That's almost worse than the 2010 parties throughout the 20th century chart.
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YL
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« Reply #1562 on: February 26, 2015, 03:28:54 PM »

For which parties? I have no idea how they calculate political party positions though.

Well, I presume they don't do it by going through the questions and thinking about how the leading figures in the parties would answer them, because I don't see how they could get anything like that chart.  (It'd be hard to do that for quite a few of the questions, of course.  I have no idea what Nick Clegg thinks about abstract art.)

I also think it's misleading to summarise a party's position by a single point, even if the points themselves made more sense.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1563 on: February 26, 2015, 04:06:19 PM »

a lot of PC's more egregious eff ups would be reduced significantly if they abandoned single data points for parties and had larger clouds. Probably more useful as well, as well as being able to accommodate more vaguely defined parties
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morgieb
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« Reply #1564 on: February 26, 2015, 05:10:10 PM »

Hint: It's the Political Compass. Their charts are basically True Leftist/libertarian circle jerks.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1565 on: February 26, 2015, 05:34:41 PM »

TNS have 'corrected' themselves in their new Scotland poll (they only gave the SNP a 10 point lead in their last poll)

SNP 46+5
LAB 30-1
CON 14-2
LD 3-1
GRN 3-3
UKIP 3+1
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1566 on: February 26, 2015, 05:36:08 PM »

On the issue of SNP-Labour positions:

SNP voters/supporters see themselves and their party to be left wing and Labour centre-right:


Whereas Labour voters/supporters in Scotland see themselves and their party to be left wing and the SNP as centre-left (just):


The British Election Study asked 28,000 people in their study:


Scotland sees Labour to be more right-wing than any other part of the UK. In fact Scotland sees every UK-wide party to be more right wing that anywhere else in the UK (excluding the Greens).

It's all about perception - it seems. (It would be interesting to see where people in England and Wales would put the SNP).

I'm basing this the following numbers meaning:
0.0-1.9 - Hard Left
2.0-3.9 - Left Wing
3.9-4.9 - Centre-Left
5.0-5.0 - Centre
5.1-5.9 - Centre-Right
6.0-7.9 - Right Wing
8.0-9.9 - Hard Right

Sources: Link1, Link2

I'll try to find the data tables tomorrow.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1567 on: February 26, 2015, 05:52:52 PM »


Scotland sees Labour to be more right-wing than any other part of the UK. In fact Scotland sees every UK-wide party to be more right wing that anywhere else in the UK (excluding the Greens).


What a bright bunch we are Cheesy

The problem for Scottish Labour is that they might find themselves drifting 'rightward' by default. Certainly if they suffer significant losses to the SNP this year, they will likely perform better in the Aberdeen Souths, Edinburgh Souths and East Renfrewshires of Scotland. If they do, then they will win the sorts of seats they lost in 2011 and loose the sorts of seats they won in 2011, which makes negotiating the 2016 campaign a nightmare, with more added hellishness if they find up in some Commons agreement with the SNP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1568 on: February 26, 2015, 06:48:06 PM »

Scotland is, however, suffering from a severe case of sinistrisme at present, so I'm not sure if findings of that sort are much use Tongue
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1569 on: February 26, 2015, 06:51:58 PM »

And we have another dodgy constituency poll!

South Thanet, courtesy of Survation (oh dear) and funded by UKIP donor Alan Bown: UKIP 39, Labour 28, Con 27, Green 3, LDem 2

Meanwhile tonight's YouGov had UKIP on 13% nationally.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1570 on: February 26, 2015, 07:03:53 PM »

Yeah well they also think Flowers of Scotland is a good song. Clearly their views are slightly distorted.
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« Reply #1571 on: February 27, 2015, 06:10:36 AM »

Although the Tories won't be reduced to two seats, there are some startingly comparisons to Canada 1993 here, are there not? Main centre-right party faces a challenge from a party to its right which is led by a high-profile leader, nationalist party in one province/constituent nation looks set to make huge gains, another third party could be virtually wiped out.

Incidentally, the polls at the beginning of the Canada 1993 campaign were also similar - main centre-left and centre-right party tied, right-wing populist party hovering around the 12% mark.
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« Reply #1572 on: February 27, 2015, 06:35:19 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2015, 06:37:16 AM by You kip if you want to... »

Although the Tories won't be reduced to two seats, there are some startingly comparisons to Canada 1993 here, are there not? Main centre-right party faces a challenge from a party to its right which is led by a high-profile leader, nationalist party in one province/constituent nation looks set to make huge gains, another third party could be virtually wiped out.

Incidentally, the polls at the beginning of the Canada 1993 campaign were also similar - main centre-left and centre-right party tied, right-wing populist party hovering around the 12% mark.

(And a winner leader being attacked for looking weird).

A man can dream.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1573 on: February 27, 2015, 06:45:32 AM »

Scotland is, however, suffering from a severe case of sinistrisme at present, so I'm not sure if findings of that sort are much use Tongue

Possibly. I think that would be more apt to describe a ‘fragmented left’ against a stalwart right. While Scottish politics is left party dominated, there is no strong right wing party in Scotland. Labour’s problem is that it may, by default become that and not because of any change of direction politically, but because right of centre voters, unionist voters might align behind them. Certainly at conference the Scottish Conservatives were very keen to clamp down on the recent private chatter about ‘rallying behind Labour’ (which will be easier to dampen now than it will be in say 2016)

I think this election (and 2016) will be influenced strongly by the Yes/No divide. However the SNP’s electoral strength was already apparent before the campaign. It is of no coincidence that the current polls point towards a similar vote share as in 2011. The question is from which pool of the ‘45%’ will the SNP’s vote come from?.

There is a tendency to think that Scottish voters are naturally Labour and they ‘lend’ their vote to the SNP, even in 2007 and even in 2011 (if you look at the 2010 GE results) However, given that the SNP vote share at the GE has generally declined from ‘92/’97 (which itself never hit the highs of ‘74) it may be worthwhile postulating that the opposite is true; that there is a natural SNP constituency, and growing, that lends its vote to Labour. The SNP’s decline post ’74 was due to a variety of factors, in short the stalling of the Assembly, the leakage of votes to the Tories and then later the Alliance (there is a correlation between the SNP vote in the ’74 elections with Liberal ‘bubble’ in ’64 and ’66 for example) and the entire political re-orientation of the party and moving towards the left while still being a reasonable ‘centre-right’ alternative to the Tories (in its rural rhetoric against urban Thatcherism, to put it simply) where it mattered. The SNP tracked back a towards the ‘right’ under John Swinney and paid a price for that. If anything the good results for the Greens and the SSP in 2003 were more to do with that, than to do with anything distinctly wrong with Labour at that time. I would argue that this was classic sinistrisme, but at the same time the political ‘correction’ was not necessarily a rush to the centre, but ‘Salmondism’, which rhetorically worked well against Thatcherism but was now re-directed against Labour.

Thatcherism didn’t really do in the Tories in Scotland, it was the perception and an accurate perception that she just didn’t care about Scotland. Not necessarily left-wing Scotland, but she didn’t care about her own Tory constituency in Scotland. That feeling translated to how the electorate felt about this whole party with the 1997 No campaign (rather than 1997 GE rout) damaging the Tories almost irreversibly. The party only survives because it appeals to what’s left of the party and it’s notion of national identity; pockets of suburban unionism, exploiting national disconnect in the Borders and hoover-ing up the UK expat votes. Labour are now struggling because they are perceived to be ‘un-Scottish’, or certainly aren’t connecting with ‘labour Scotland’. That could kill it.

Because Labour have never really had to work for their votes, they don’t know who their own constituency is anymore, particularly post referendum. There isn’t enough time to diagnose this before the next two national elections.
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Thomas D
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« Reply #1574 on: February 27, 2015, 09:18:30 PM »

So if Ed is such an odd duck, how'd he ever get elected Labour leader? Did he face a weak field?
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