UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[YL]

Well, of course it wasn't actually a no change election last time, because of Alliance defeating Peter Robinson in East Belfast.

This time, I expect the DUP to take East Belfast back, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are no other changes.  The UUP must have a chance of beating Sinn Féin in FST, given the pact, but you'd probably have to make SF slight favourites given that a unity Unionist candidate fell just short last time.  Elsewhere, I doubt the DUP can get enough votes from South Belfast's demographic to beat McDonnell, unless SF really eat into his vote, and I suppose the UUP might have some chance of getting a seat back from the DUP; South Antrim is probably the most likely.

[Хahar 🤔]

Belfast East is almost certainly a lost cause, but it seems unlikely that anything else changes this year. Gerry Kelly picking up Belfast North for Sinn Féin seems like a matter of "when" rather than "if".

[YL]

Final batch of Lib Dem guesses:

Norwich South - An urban, studenty Lib Dem gain from Labour in 2010, with a large Green presence in local elections.  I suspect the Lib Dems are headed for third here.  Near certain Lab gain.

Orkney & Shetland - This has been with the Lib Dems and, before them, the Liberals, since 1950.  They even did well here in their 2011 Scottish Parliament and 2014 Euro disasters, and it's a strong No area so the SNP seem unlikely to take it.  Near certain Lib Dem hold.

Portsmouth South - The Lib Dem MP here, Mike Hancock, got into all sorts of trouble and is now sitting as an independent and has been effectively deselected.  There's still Lib Dem strength locally, but it's hard to see them holding.  UKIP are sniffing around, which could complicate things.  Likely Con gain.

Redcar - A spectactular Lib Dem gain from Labour in 2010 on an enormous swing.  Their MP, Ian Swales, is standing down.  In spite of some reports of troubles in the local Labour party, I suspect that the 2015 result will be such that if this site still exists in twenty years time people will be wondering if the 2010 result was a misprint.  Near certain Lab gain.

Ross, Skye & Lochaber - Might Charles Kennedy lose to the SNP?  Until recently I'd have said no, but with the SNP surge there's now at least room for doubt.  Kennedy isn't as high profile he was, and reports of his recent Question Time appearance won't be helpful.  For now, I'm going with him to just hold on, but I'm not at all convinced.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

St Austell & Newquay - A Cornish seat, parts of which have been represented by Liberals and Lib Dems since David Penhaligon won Truro in October 1974.  Given the narrow margin in 2010 over the Tories, I think the Tories have to be favourites here, though Cornwall isn't always easy to predict and may have a heavy UKIP influence.  Lean Con gain.

St Ive's - As well as St Ive's, this includes the rest of west Cornwall, including Penzance and the Isle of Scilly.  Andrew George, who is on the left of the party and has a reputation for Cornish nationalist tendencies, has been Lib Dem MP here since 1997.  His majority fell sharply in 2010.  I'm going to go for him to hold on based on a personal vote.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Sheffield Hallam - Three constituency polls have led to speculation that Nick Clegg is in danger of losing his seat to Labour, in spite of his huge 2010 majority, the demographics of the seat and the fact that Labour have never won it.  I don't find the vote shares (low 30s) that the polls give Labour implausible, but where I do find the polling figures odd is that they suggest that Clegg is losing enough votes elsewhere that Labour could win with 30%.  Clegg has a fight on his hands, but I think he's still favourite to hold on at this point.  (NB I live here and will be voting Labour.)  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Solihull - A surprise Lib Dem gain from the Tories in 2005, and a narrow regain in 2010 after boundary changes made it notionally Tory again.  I think the Lib Dems will struggle to hold on here.  Likely Con gain.

Somerton & Frome - This has been won by David Heath for four elections in a row with consistently tiny majorities.  He's now standing down and being replaced by David Rendel, former Lib Dem MP for Newbury.  The small majorities and the retirement suggest the Lib Dems are going to struggle.  Likely Con gain.

Southport - A Lancashire coastal town annexed against the protests of many of its residents to Merseyside in 1974, the constituency has been a Lib Dem/Con marginal for some time, Liberal in 1987, Tory in 1992, and Lib Dem since 1997.  The Tories are in a mess in Sefton borough, and it's quite difficult to see them winning.  I note Andrew Teale's suggestion that UKIP might come through the middle, and can see that the demographics might be good for them by north-west England standards, but I think the Lib Dems must be favourites.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Sutton & Cheam - Another south-west London seat won in 1997.  The Tories were close enough behind in 2010 that you'd probably expect them to gain, so the question is how seriously to take the Ashcroft poll showing Paul Burstow 18 points ahead of them (on the constituency question; he was behind on the standard one).  I wouldn't take it that seriously, but it might be just enough to make me make him favourite.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Taunton Deane - The Lib Dems won this in 1997, lost it back to the Tories in 2001, and gained it again in 2005, with the new MP being the ridiculously right-wing Jeremy Browne.  He's retiring, and even if he'd stayed on I suspect the seat might well have changed hands again.  Likely Con gain.

Thornbury & Yate - This is just north of Bristol, including the northern edge of Bristol's suburban sprawl (though most of that is in Filton & Sadly Broke).  Steve Webb has been MP for this area since 1997, and looks reasonably comfortable on the 2010 figures.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Torbay - This was Tory until Adrian Sanders won it by 12 votes in 1997, and they keep thinking they're going to get it back and keep not doing so.  They might have a chance this time, but I'm going to guess that Sanders holds on again.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

Twickenham - Vince Cable has been MP here since he won it from the Tories in 1997.  He isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I think he's retained more popularity than most Lib Dems and I don't think he's likely to lose.  Likely Lib Dem hold.

Wells - A 2010 Lib Dem gain from the Tories after years of trying and coming close.  There have been three constituency polls here which have all shown the Tories ahead.  I doubt it'll be that easy for them, but just about make them favourites.  Lean Con gain.

Westmorland & Lonsdale - This has only been Lib Dem since 2005, but Tim Farron seems amazingly popular in the area and they also do well in other elections, even carrying South Lakeland district in their Euro disaster.  Near certain Lib Dem hold.

Yeovil - Paddy Ashdown's seat, which he won in 1983, has been held by the very right wing David Laws since 2001.  He had a big majority in 2010 and should be favoured to hold on, but I do have some suspicions that his expenses problems which forced him out of the Cabinet might be used against him.  Lean Lib Dem hold.

[YL]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

[ChrisDR68]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

[Phony Moderate]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

Not really; they didn't know where they were likely to do well back in those days.

[DL]

... and, to summarise:
"Near certain" hold 2
"Likely" hold 9
"Lean" hold 17
"Lean" loss 10
"Likely" loss 13
"Near certain" loss 6

Don't take too seriously.

So they could poll around the same level that they did in the 1970 general election according to what most opinion polls are showing at the moment (8.5%) but instead of winning just the 6 seats they won in that election they could end up with the 28 you've worked out here.

Extraordinary

In 1970 the Liberals had only a dozen incumbent MPs seeking re-election. The LibDems now have over 50 seats and its a lot easier to hold onto seats when you have incumbents running for re-election some of whom have a local following and organization.

[ObserverIE]

The UUP must have a chance of beating Sinn Féin in FST, given the pact, but you'd probably have to make SF slight favourites given that a unity Unionist candidate fell just short last time.

Elliot is the sort of, em, abrasive personality who is more likely to motivate soft SDLP voters to turn up and lend the vote to Gildernew than Rodney Connor would have been in 2010.

[ObserverIE]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

Based on local results, I'd have put down Cheltenham and the two Sutton seats as "likely" rather than "lean" (and Twickenham would move in the opposite direction), and I wouldn't be surprised to see them holding Cheadle.

I suspect Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is their best hope in Scotland barring Orkney and Shetland and Kennedy's seat, whereas North Devon strikes me as very vulnerable and Cambridge as unlikely. Portsmouth South? - God alone knows.

I'm trying to think of anywhere where they might sneak a win based on strong local presence and a freak vote split elsewhere - South East Cornwall? Watford? Bosworth? Montgomeryshire (if Lembit Öpik hasn't irretrievably poisoned the well there)?

[Frodo]

General Election 2015: Ukip could form coalition with Tories and DUP

By Adam Justice | IB Times – 12 hours ago

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[Joe Republic]

^ Wouldn't that just annoy the UUP (what's left of it)?

[ObserverIE]

^ Wouldn't that just annoy the UUP (what's left of it)?

The UUP are just as xenophobic as the DUP, so not really.

[Joe Republic]

Speaking of NI, and I vaguely remember asking this before (and either way have long forgotten the answer), but why are there no ideologically conservative parties on the nationalist side, and no ideologically progressive parties on the unionist side (other than the tiny PUP and the disastrous NI21)?

[ObserverIE]

Speaking of NI, and I vaguely remember asking this before (and either way have long forgotten the answer), but why are there no ideologically conservative parties on the nationalist side, and no ideologically progressive parties on the unionist side (other than the tiny PUP and the disastrous NI21)?

That depends on how you define ideologically conservative or progressive.

Most parties in Northern Ireland primarily base their appeal on national identity. Economically, most of them are centrist or centre-leftish; public spending makes up a much bigger component of the Northern economy than in just about anywhere else in Europe, and when the pork goes to so many plates, there's not going to be a huge interest in slash-and-burn economics.

SF are notably to the left of most other parties (in part because they're keeping an eye on matters South of the border). The SDLP are ideologically - insofar as the SDLP do ideology - fairly mild social democrats.

On "social" issues, both are within the Irish mainstream of being conservative (the SDLP very much so) on abortion (although there are some pro-choicers within SF) and relaxed to supportive of gay rights and gay marriage. They're not going to run ahead of their voter base. Neither will touch ACLU-style laïcité with a bargepole.

The UUP were until 1985 allied to the British Tory party and contain whatever most of whatever semi-coherent economic right-wingers there are in NI politics. These include the group of bloggers who agitated for the UCUNF pact with the Conservatives at the 2010 elections and whose main legacy was to drive Sylvia Hermon out of the party and thereby remove the UUP's presence in the House of Commons. Their support base is traditionally more middle-class than the DUP's but they're also fond of pork, especially the sort that the middle-classes and security forces benefit from. They're more relaxed about welfare cuts because they believe that welfare mainly benefits "themmuns".

(And the fact that Unionism traditionally allied itself with the British right meant that Nationalism traditionally allied itself against the British right - first with the Liberals until the War of Independence and then with Labour.)

The DUP is a right-populist party with strong religious strains, and again only favour the type of public spending cuts that they believe will disproportionally hit "the other sort". It may contain economic right-wingers but it's not very economically right-wing as such.

As for the PUP, it is first and foremost the front organisation of the UVF; it may mouth vaguely leftish
utterances but they're not the reason why its supporters vote for it.

There's also Alliance, which tends to attract secular left-wingers and ecumenist types, and there are the micro-parties of both right (NI Conservatives, UKIP) and left (PBP, SP) where the economic true believers go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

[ObserverIE]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

I think you can regard that as the Executive Summary of the previous, longer, post.

[afleitch]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

How else can you get votes from civil servants?

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Unison Poll:
SNP - 47.1% [+1.8]
Lab - 28.0% [+0.5]
Con - 14.5% [-0.5]
Lib - 4.0% [-1.0]
UKIP - 3.4% [+0.2]
Grn - 2.3% [-1.1]

Fieldwork: 6-10 March 2015

[YL]

More polls, all online panel ones.

Yesterday's YouGov: Lab 34 Con 33 UKIP 14 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
Today's YouGov: Con 35 Lab 33 UKIP 13 LD 8 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 4
Today's Populus: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 17 LD 9 Green 5 SNP 5

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP have suspended an MEP due to accusations of fraud.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

She's a candidate for Folkestone too.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Survation/Daily Record poll:
SNP - 47.1% [n/c]
Lab - 26.1% [-1.9]
Con - 15.5% [+1.0]
UKIP - 4.3% [+0.9]
Lib - 4.0% [n/c]
Grn - 2.2% [-0.1]

85.1% of SNP supporters voted 'yes' in the referendum - this figure is 19.4% for Labour and 3.2% for the Conservatives. Incredibly, 23.6% of 2011 Lib Dem voters and 18.9% of 2011 Labour voters plan to vote SNP in May.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP - 49.8% [+0.6]
Lab - 26.3% [-0.6]
Con - 13.3% [+0.4]
Lib - 5.0% [n/c]
UKIP - 2.5% [+0.3]
Grn - 2.0% [-1.1]

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP - 39.4% [-1.9]
Lab - 22.8% [+0.3]
Con - 14.6% [+2.7]
Grn - 11.1% [-1.5]
UKIP - 5.5% [+0.5]
Lib - 5.3% [-0.4]

The near proportional Scottish Parliament would look like (according to ScotlandVotes):
*SNP - 69 seats (N/C on 2011)
*Lab - 26 seats (-11)
*Con - 15 seats (N/C)
*Grn - 11 seats (+9)
*Lib - 5 seats (N/C)
*UKIP - 3 seats (+3)

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 50.9% [+3.2]
No - 49.1% [-3.2]

The independence movement have picked up 8.7% of No voters since September, while the pro-union movement have picked up just 2.5% of Yes voters. Those who didn't vote split 51.6% to No; 48.4% to Yes.

If there was to be another referendum on Scottish independence when, if at all, do you think this referendum should take place?
Within the next 2 years - 17.9%
In 2 - 5 years time - 22.5%
In 5 - 10 years time - 19.1%
In 10+ years time - 20.5%
Never - 20.1%

A pretty staggering 40.4% of Scots want another referendum within the next five years, while 59.5% want another one within ten years - the issue doesn't seem to have gone away. 80.0% of people believe there should be a second referendum at some point, which is similar to the number of people who wanted a referendum before the 2014 one was announced.

34.8% of Yes voters want another referendum within the next two years, while 71.7% want a second vote within the next five years. No voters are less likely to want another referendum, with only 29.7% backing another referendum within the next ten years.

Fieldwork: 12-17 March

[Helsinkian]

She's a candidate for Folkestone too.

Do they have time to put up another candidate?

[Frodo]

I asked this question in the Canadian 2015 elections thread, and I will ask it here: could what happened in Israel happen in the UK? Polls are showing the contest as neck-and-neck, but could the final election result see the Conservatives actually increase their seat totals in Parliament, and strengthen their hold on government, enabling PM David Cameron to stay around at least until the end of the decade?  Does anyone see that happening?