UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cashcroft has played with his rubber ball again, and bounced in such a way as to produce the following figures: Labour 33, Con 33, UKIP 13, LDem 8, Greens 5

[You kip if you want to...]

Can we presume there's been no budget bounce or what?

[Phony Moderate]

Can we presume there's been no budget bounce or what?

Probably. There does seem to be a swingback occuring, but it seems to be a swingback to both major parties.

[Phony Moderate]

Cameron says he won't seek a third term if he gets a second, which would mean five years of endless speculation as to who would succeed him.

[Lurker]

Cameron says he won't seek a third term if he gets a second, which would mean five years of endless speculation as to who would succeed him.

Why does he announce this now? There seems little to gain by it, and much to lose.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He does like his short term tactical clever-clever moves.

[You kip if you want to...]

Well considering he's more popular than his party, surely this is a bad move.

[ChrisDR68]

Well considering he's more popular than his party, surely this is a bad move.

Not really.

Maggie Thatcher got into serious trouble once she got past 10 years as PM. Tony Blair took that lesson on board and resigned exactly on the 10 year mark so Cameron is essentially following in Blair's footsteps.

[Blair]

Well considering he's more popular than his party, surely this is a bad move.

Not really.

Maggie Thatcher got into serious trouble once she got past 10 years as PM. Tony Blair took that lesson on board and resigned exactly on the 10 year mark so Cameron is essentially following in Blair's footsteps.

But Blair's problems started once he made his no fourth term pledge in 2004, he wanted to serve until 2009/2010 but after making a Cameron-esque pledge it basically ed his leadership.

I have no idea why Cameron is doing this, all it will do is make his opponents more aggressive in getting rid of him

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32029389

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Michael Gove evidently believes that Thatcher was neither sane nor decent. Nice to know.

[You kip if you want to...]

It just reeks of arrogance to even be discussing a third term when he barely even got one and is struggling for another. This kind've born to rule presumption is exactly the reason the people who hate, hate him.

[jaichind]

I think I made this point before, but I noticed in all the polls that since the around May 2014, CON+UKIP seems to jump around 47% with a very low level of variation.  In which case would not polling around CON/UKIP tactical voting be useful, especially in England in figuring out exactly what level of losses will be sustained by CON.

[DL]

There is a not insignificant minority of votes that UKIP takes from Labour too. We should not assume that every point lost by UKIP is a point gained by the Tories...

[jaichind]

There is a not insignificant minority of votes that UKIP takes from Labour too. We should not assume that every point lost by UKIP is a point gained by the Tories...

That is what I would think as well.  But if CON+UKIP always seems to add up to 47% with very small variation since May 2014, then I have to assume from a net point of view any LAB->UKIP shift already took place and now it is mostly about CON-UKIP shifts back and forth. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Be warned that British voters don't really form blocs in the way that voters do in some other countries. You have a higher number of die-hard partisans and a higher number of people who vote all over the place.

[afleitch]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

[afleitch]

SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

[jaichind]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

Yep.  I was more thinking of UKIP->CON tactical voting.  

[afleitch]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

Yep.  I was more thinking of UKIP->CON tactical voting.  

I think in that case it won't necessarily be 'tactical' voting, but simply Tory voters that have a two year dalliance with UKIP returning to the party.

[You kip if you want to...]

SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

The struggle is, as is the struggle for the other 6 leaders is, because there's so many of them, it won't just be about her so there's limited space for her to get a look in - especially on anything anybody south of the border will care about.

[afleitch]

SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

The struggle is, as is the struggle for the other 6 leaders is, because there's so many of them, it won't just be about her so there's limited space for her to get a look in - especially on anything anybody south of the border will care about.

She doesn't need to get much in at all. She won't be addressing the public and saying 'this is why should vote for my party' like pretty much everyone else, because most of them can't. Simply appearing is enough in terms of a boost for the party in Scotland who despite their quite shockingly high support (even for an old pro like me) could still get lost in the media campaign up here. She just has to outline as quickly as she can, what the SNP are and what they would do with respect to Labour. The SNP's message has been for a number of years now; we are what the Labour party should which can now been given to the whole country. Whether you agree with that positioning or not, it allows her to offer Miliband tentative support while digging her nails into his arm at the same time.

The SNP want Labour neutered as a force in Scotland whether the status quo continues or they end up in coalition with them. In fact a coalition would be better because they can squeeze out concessions in time for the 2016 Holyrood elections.

[Phony Moderate]

As an aside, an amusing thought: Let's say the Tories remain in government after May 7th. Burnham succeeds Miliband. Johnson succeeds Cameron at some point during the next parliament. Tories fail to break 1% in any Liverpool constituency in 2020.

[ChrisDR68]

As an aside, an amusing thought: Let's say the Tories remain in government after May 7th. Burnham succeeds Miliband. Johnson succeeds Cameron at some point during the next parliament. Tories fail to break 1% in any Liverpool constituency in 2020.

Amazing to think that Maggie Thatcher actually gained Liverpool Garston from Labour in the 1979 general election with a 2787 majority and held Liverpool Wavertree with a majority of 6942. 

Not surprisingly they haven't won a seat in the city since.

[You kip if you want to...]

As an aside, an amusing thought: Let's say the Tories remain in government after May 7th. Burnham succeeds Miliband. Johnson succeeds Cameron at some point during the next parliament. Tories fail to break 1% in any Liverpool constituency in 2020.

Amazing to think that Maggie Thatcher actually gained Liverpool Garston from Labour in the 1979 general election with a 2787 majority and held Liverpool Wavertree with a majority of 6942. 

Not surprisingly they haven't won a seat in the city since.

Freedom city.

Gonna be the most Labour city by a country mile this time, since Glasgow's gone.

[Phony Moderate]

A coup attempt against Bercow is taking place...