UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Silent Hunter]

Wonder just how big of an impact that food bank gaffe will have on Cameron.

[Phony Moderate]

UKIP now seen as the party of sleaze, according to YouGov. Amusing when you think back to the 2009 European election campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trouble with being a new party that profits from corruption scandals is that you have to then be seriously fycking clean yourself, or at least be seen to be.

[© tweed]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

[© tweed]

ok, a quick look at the odds suggests the number for the Cons is in the high 280s.  UKIP only 4/5.  SNP 43.5.

could it be that SNP will hold all the cards, if both Labour and Cons. are within 45 seats of 326?

[You kip if you want to...]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

[Blair]

Miliband came out fighting last night, people have responded to that and there'a buzz about Ed now. Questions were aggressive and bias-asking DC if he has had 3 shredded wheat then asking Ed if he's a north london geek.

Ed stuck it to DC

[© tweed]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

[afleitch]

Miliband came out fighting last night, people have responded to that and there'a buzz about Ed now. Questions were aggressive and bias-asking DC if he has had 3 shredded wheat then asking Ed if he's a north london geek.

Ed stuck it to DC

You need more tint on your glasses

[Phony Moderate]

Is Cameron going to bother doing the "I saw Her Majesty and asked for a dissolution of Parliament..." bit outside No. 10 on Monday? Or has the Fixed Terms bill killed that tradition?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seat 'projections' at this stage are basically trash. Ignore.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Populus say: Labour 33, Con 31, UKIP 16, LDem 9, Greens 5, Others 6

Only minor changes from their last poll.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Was the omission of the liberals intentional, Al?

[Diouf]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

Because, unlike what Jim Murphy deceitfully tries to pitch to the Scottish voters, the biggest party does not necessarily form the government. If Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SDLP + Greens have a majority, which most forecasts suggest right now, David Cameron will have to resign or be faced with a motion of no confidence which will provide the same result. Then Ed Miliband will form a Labour minority government. How stable such a government will be and how difficult it will be for it to carry through legislation of course depends on the arrangements it will make with other parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Was the omission of the liberals intentional, Al?

LOL

[You kip if you want to...]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3335_27_03_15_7_19_57.png

Had a crack at making a constituency map, based on the BBC one. I'll tidy it up if I have some spare time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ICM have done a poll of London. It shows a very similar pattern to the YouGovs: Labour 42, Con 32, LDem 9, UKIP 9, Greens 8.

[Bacon King]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

If the SNP held the balance of power they would probably give confidence to a Labour government even if the Conservatives had more seats

[afleitch]

For those that need one:

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Was the omission of the liberals intentional, Al?

LOL

I'd say liberals are quite good in omitting themselves.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now we enter the world of last minute retirements; there are always a few of these (largely because they entail - for various practical reasons - a suspension of the usual candidate selection methods). It seems that the first is Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Coventry North West) who has been an MP since a by-election in 1976.

Or is it? It is now being suggested that maybe he isn't going to retire.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour 4 points ahead with YouGov, Tories ahead 1 with Opinium. With YouGov, Miliband was seen as having come across the best in the interviews by a margin of 49-34 and his personal ratings have increased to a still rather poor -28 (up from -40something) and his 'better Prime Minister' rating is up to 23% while Cameron's is down to 35%.

[YL]

And now we enter the world of last minute retirements; there are always a few of these (largely because they entail - for various practical reasons - a suspension of the usual candidate selection methods). It seems that the first is Geoffrey Robinson (Labour, Coventry North West) who has been an MP since a by-election in 1976.

Or is it? It is now being suggested that maybe he isn't going to retire.

LabourList says he's standing again.  There is much less excuse for late retirements now that the date of the election has been known for so long.

[YL]

Labour 4 points ahead with YouGov, Tories ahead 1 with Opinium. With YouGov, Miliband was seen as having come across the best in the interviews by a margin of 49-34 and his personal ratings have increased to a still rather poor -28 (up from -40something) and his 'better Prime Minister' rating is up to 23% while Cameron's is down to 35%.

It should be pointed out that YouGov's sample of those who watched the interviews seems to have been heavily Labour; those who saw it were Lab 47 Con 28, those who saw clips were Lab 40 Con 28, but those who didn't see it were Con 36 Lab 30.  The questions about the interviews were only asked to those who saw it or saw clips.

However, I note that YouGov also asked their whole sample, as well as the best PM question, "Which party leader do you think is the most honest and trustworthy?", "Which party leader do you think is most in touch with ordinary people's concerns?", and "Which party leader do you think is the most genuine and authenic?", and Miliband led Cameron on all three.  (Cameron was third on the second one, behind Farage as well as Miliband.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mike Hancock, the disgraced ex-LibDem (now Independent) MP for Portsmouth South (who also doubles up as the Kremlin's man in the Commons), is to run for re-election as an Independent.

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Who else finds the prospect of his campaign ghoulishly fascinating? And should we list him as an Independent or as a candidate for United Russia?