UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[You kip if you want to...]

Are the UK pollsters just making stuff up now?

They seem to have been doing that for a while..

As the media has become even more saturated with polls since 2010, the pundits have become even more dependent on them.

Worrying thing is that, historically, our opinion polls aren't exactly gospel. See: 1992, 1997, 2001, 2010. In an election this close, being off by even 2-3% will mean you could be miles off.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A lot of the recent polls have the combined total for the big two parties actually gaining from 2010. Not that you know that from the meeja.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full YouGov figures: Labour 35, Con 35, UKIP 12, LDem 8, Greens 5

[You kip if you want to...]

A lot of the recent polls have the combined total for the big two parties actually gaining from 2010. Not that you know that from the meeja.

Yeah, I think the main 2 have been creeping up together since the start of March. I'll wait until after the big 7-party debate though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You should wait until much later than that. Polls can move rapidly in all directions during the campaign period. Still... we should all note (as psephologists, mind, purely as psephologists) that there is a tendency (a tendency not a law, a tendency) for the final results to look not unlike those of the polls of the first phase of the campaign. Don't make assumptions right now (certainly), but keep notes.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I watched the leadership debate from Thursday last night on C-SPAN. I wish I would have popped into this thread sooner

Edit: I thought Milliband was terrible. Cameron may have come across a phony, but Milliband croaked and couldn't seem to answer any of Paxman's questions. Cameron performed much better in the one on one, though I wasn't particularly impressed by him either.

[jaichind]

Will the NI parties play a role in government formation if the election is this close and perhaps no two parties can get an absolute majority ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In the eventuality that their seats are important ones regarding parliamentary arithmetic, the DUP will doubtless adopt the traditional Unionist line: MOAR MONIES PLZ.

[retromike22]

fivethirtyeight has their prediction up:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After their humiliation last time one wonders why they're bothering.

[Phony Moderate]

Closing this thread and opening a new one as a. it is nearing the 'ceiling' of 2,000 posts and b. a new thread for the campaign proper seems appropriate. I'm sure our moderator will agree too.