UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[GAworth]

Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat

What seat(s) would the Sinn Fein gain from the DUP? And do you really think that Naomi Long can hold on in E. Belfast, and are these figures counting two tory wins in NI, I only count 16 NI seats won by NI Parties?

[GAworth]

What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

Ashcroft constituency polls (for what they're worth) just showed them ahead in both Thurrock and South Thanet (the latter may be Farage's) and only just behind in Great Yarmouth and Camborne & Redruth.  Various other seats near the East and South Coasts seem like at least outside chances for them as well: Boston & Skegness, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, maybe North Thanet, possibly a couple on the Sussex coast.  I'd also mention Castle Point, mainly because it seems like a rather UKIP sort of place.  Of seats currently held by Labour, I'd think the one in most danger of going purple is Great Grimsby, but Survation and Ashcroft polls there have both shown Labour well ahead.

Using the data published by Electoral Calculus as to how similar the new proposed seat was to the old, I came up with the following alternative General Election 2010

Conservatives 296 seats
Labour 234 seats
Liberal Democrats 47 seats
Democratic Unionists 6 seats
Scottish Nationalists 6 seats
Sinn Fein 6 seats
SDLP 2 seats
Plaid Cymru 1 seat
Alliance 1 seat
Northern Ireland Independents 1 seat

What seat(s) would the Sinn Fein gain from the DUP? And do you really think that Naomi Long can hold on in E. Belfast, and are these figures counting two tory wins in NI, I only count 16 NI seats won by NI Parties?

This is based on the proposed boundaries from the cancelled boundary review, and it's for 2010.  Northern Ireland would have had 16 seats, so that's right, and Alliance would definitely have won Belfast South-East (and had a good chance at holding on to it in 2015; it was a bit of a dream scenario for them).  I'm not sure how he's getting 6 Sinn Féin seats, though: they'd presumably have won the new "Glenshane" seat (the successor to East Londonderry) but Mid Ulster would have been abolished, so I'm only seeing 5.  Possibly he thinks they'd have won North Belfast, but I don't think the proposals would have helped them there.

Thanks gotcha