UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Cassius]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

0-5 seats for your party?  That makes Dan Hodges look like an optimist.

But Dan Hodges isn't a supporter of the Labour Party anymore (or so I read). So he is a very optimistic man.

My prediction -

Conservatives win an overall majority for the first time since 1992 winning somewhere around 315 - 325 seats

That, technically, wouldn't be enough for a majority (it's 326 seats, and even then, that probably wouldn't last a full parliamentary session), and also, why so optimistic? Whilst I'm coming round to the view that the Tories won't do that badly, I still can't see them holding onto and/or increasing their current vote share and gaining seats. At best, I can see Labour either being the largest party in parliament without a majority, or winning a small one. At best I see the Tories geting 260-290 seats.

[Cassius]

There is really people liking Chukka Ummana? I mean, he sounds like a right-wing version of Tony Blair.

Muh British Obama!1!1

Not that I don't think he's probably at least somewhat talented and all, but I think this is one of the reasons as to why some (but not all) people (especially those working in journalism) like to big him up as the potential next Labour leader/PM.

[Cassius]

Have I missled something. Is not Labour leasing in the polls?! And does not the Tories need like a nine point lead to get its own majority? And what about this fact, will not the boundaries change in order to be more representative?

No, you're right, but there are a lot of people (particularly those in the Conservative supporting media, as well as vehement opponents of Miliband within the Labour party) who think that somehow the Conservatives will magic up a second term utilising a combination of Ed Miliband's seeming lack of credibility and the slow but steady recovery. This analysis conveniently ignores the steep obstacles to this as you outlined above. Don't get me wrong, in my opinion (of course, I'm not expert but whatever), Labour have done a pretty p*** poor job in opposition, and certainly appear to be making things more difficult for themselves. However, despite the now incessant negative coverage of Labour (particularly centred upon Miliband and his advisors), Labour still maintain a small but relatively solid lead of 3-5 points in the polls. I won't rule out a Conservative victory next year; but I wouldn't bet anything on it unless something big swings the polls in the favour of the Conservatives.

[Cassius]

If the Lib-Dems did axe Clegg, is there anybody who could somewhat salvage their fortunes (since it seems that whenever they actively try to do that with Clegg at the helm it just makes things worse - a la the Euros). I mean, I imagine all of their current cabinet ministers would be pretty useless at that, but is there anyone on the backbenches maybe?

[Cassius]

If the Lib-Dems did axe Clegg, is there anybody who could somewhat salvage their fortunes (since it seems that whenever they actively try to do that with Clegg at the helm it just makes things worse - a la the Euros). I mean, I imagine all of their current cabinet ministers would be pretty useless at that, but is there anyone on the backbenches maybe?

All English politicians are "pretty useless" by the ridiculous standards people expect. Except Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, but they're popular because they don't actually run anything, just act as human projection vessels for people's hopes and fears. The problem with the Lib Dems is that they attracted lots of lefties who have not liked any government in their adult lives and thought they had found a permanent party of protest. 6% of the electorate were with the Lib Dems and are now with Labour. Obviously, Labour hopes that they will (a) win Labour the election and (b) stay with Labour afterwards, rather than walking away, feeling betrayed, to the Green Party or some such vessel. But neither is assured. (For context - imagine how betrayed UKIP supporters would feel the minute their party entered government!)

All you say is correct, but I was coming more from the angle of pulling them back up into the low to mid teens, as opposed to there current polling which often places them at their worst levels (if we were to assume that is what they'd get in an election) since the 50's - and of course they ran far fewer candidates back then. Basically someone who would manage to avoid utter humiliation.

[Cassius]

What result would be good enough for Clegg to remain leader?

Barring any miraculous last minute revival where the party manages to confound everybody and gain support or at least hold it, I think that depends upon whether the party remains in government. Should the coalition remain in office after next years election, Clegg may be able to hang onto his job. However, he might not be able to in the event of a Labour/Lib-Dem coalition (the Labour party might well make a show of 'refusing' to work with Clegg). On the other hand, if they get booted out of office, Clegg's probably a goner (unless of the miracle scenario outlined in the first sentence occurs). The party will naturally want to rebuild, and Clegg is hardly the man to be at the helm of such a task. So, basically, the two scenarios in which Clegg could remain leader are either a very strong performance or staying in government.

[Cassius]

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Implementing a 'real constitution' would make things even more dull than they already are...

[Cassius]

English devolution or only English MP's voting on English only issues is a massive trap for the Labour party.

Apart from exceptional elections like 1997 and 2001 the Tories generally have a majority of MP's in England.

Actually there have only ever been two elections where the Tories won in England/Wales but lost the election - the two elections of 1974.

According to a big survey by YouGov only 5% of voters say that "constitutional issues" are of any importance to them in the upcoming election - so it may be a case where the Tories take a popular position on an issue no one cares about.

When its framed as 'constitutional issues', yeah, many people would hear that and think 'dull'. However, frame it as 'English votes for English laws (whether its through Parliament or through regional assemblies) and I suspect it might generate a greater amount of enthusiasm (at least for some).

[Cassius]

That map's okay, but needs some major modifications. For example, if we are going to have regional assemblies, then lumping London in with the rest of the South-East is a big no-no. If there are to be assemblies then the South-East should have its own, London-free assembly, whilst London should retain its present assembly. Meanwhile, that 'heart of England' place needs to be broken up; it basically looks like the leftover parts that didn't fit into any other region, which I don't think is a particularly good basis for a prospective region.

I also am of the opinion that parts of Wales (especially Monmouthshire) would actually fit better in a region also containing areas such as Gloucestershire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire, but that's a topic for another day.

[Cassius]

I also am of the opinion that parts of Wales (especially Monmouthshire) would actually fit better in a region also containing areas such as Gloucestershire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire, but that's a topic for another day.

Perhaps, but since you have also previously said that "Wales doesn't have much of a common identity apart from sports" I still wonder, what is your basis for not considering Wales a cultural nation and a country with its own separate identity?

My chief reason for doing so is that Wales, unlike Scotland, does not have a tradition of self-government and 'distinctness' from England. If you think about, for well over half a millenium, Scotland was united in more or less its present form, with its own King, its own Parliament, its own nobility and its own customs, and this distinctiveness from England lives on to the present day in a lot of ways (Scottish notes, the separate Scottish education system etcetera). Furthermore, Scotland was brought into the union on a theoretically equal basis to England.

Wales, on the other hand, is entirely different. Wales was never united (at least in its present form) as an independent state for more than a short period of time, and thus never really developed separate civic institutions to England in quite the same way as Scotland did. Furthermore, it was brought fully under English control by the 1280's (indeed parts of it had been under English control since the late 11th century), and its legal and administrative system was integrated into that of England in the 1530's. I would actually go as far as arguing that 'Wales' is as much the  creation of English officials as it is that of the people of Wales. Had they simply decided that (like Cornwall) South Wales was actually a de jure part of England in the 16th century (or later) I am willing to bet money that people would have no problem with that now.

If we look at nationalism in Wales, it is very firmly bound up with the cause of promoting the Welsh language, as opposed to nationalism in Scotland, which takes on a far more 'civic' flavour. This why Plaid Cymru finds it very difficult to reach out beyond its North-Western and Western base of Welsh-Speakers (it has done so in some places, but only with difficulty). Welsh nationalism simply does not carry very much weight in areas like Monmouthshire, or Cardiff, or the Vale, because these places are, in a lot of ways, very culturally distinct from, say, Gwynedd. Of course, there is a lot of cultural difference between certain areas of Scotland, but that seems to be bridgeable by this kind of 'civic pride' which is not really much in evidence in Wales.

I personally think that some areas of Wales do have a genuinely separate cultural (I'm less sure politically) identity to England; however, I'm equally sure that for much of Wales, the chief difference with England is that they support the Welsh Rugby team (and, in places such as the Welsh valleys, have strong disagreements over the direction of government policy, but then, that is also true for some parts of England).

Basically, Wales has very little in the way of a separate civic identity to England, and even its clearly distinct cultural identity is only strong in a few areas. Thus, I do not consider much of Wales to be truly distinguishable as a nation from England.

[Cassius]

Okay, I am quite familiar the history of Wales, but its just my impression that the Welsh in general very much identify with being Welsh and have a feeling of being distinct from England and one separate country despite the linguistic divide.

I think that is true to some extent, but I'm not sure that its very different from the way that people from Yorkshire feel distinct from those who live in Lancashire, or how northerners feel distinct from southerners in England. And again, I do think a lot of Welsh national pride is predicated on sport (and by sport I mean Rugby, since that's the only team sport in which Wales actually do well).

[Cassius]

I believe (though I may be wrong) that I'll be voting in Coventry South in May, which, whilst not exactly a rock-solid Labour seat, I doubt will produce anything other than a decent win for Labour.