UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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At a guess:

Labour win a minority, but very close to a majority - like 320 seats or something

Tories lose a good handful of seats, but retain their most recognisable faces and make some gains on LD turf. Cameron stands down, and Boris Johnson is elected leader (if not him then Theresa May).

LD's hammered in popular vote, but remain as a (weakened) force of about 20-30 MPs due to the vagaries of FPTP. Danny Alexander and Simon Hughes may have "Portillo Moments". Other Lib Dems surely at risk are Kennedy, Featherstone and Swinson, but most of the cabinet still remain. Farron elected leader.

Galloway loses; Lucas wins in a razor sharp election (but the Green's council is defeated), the SNP sweeps rural Scotland and Plaid stays constant.

UKIP is a wild card. If Farage plays his cards right, he will be elected himself - but beyond that I'm not sure how many targets UKIP have.

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My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

I think if UKIP manage to reach 20% they will almost certainly grab a fair handful of seats even with FPTP, meaning they can probably enter a coalition. Not that I think UKIP winning that much is very likely.

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Harry Hayfield's prediction is clearly a joke. Don't take it so seriously.

Correct. A 600-seat Grand Coalition!

Oh haha, I didn't notice that last bit

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Yeah, it would be a fantastic way for the Lib Dems to alienate their remaining (right-wing) base. I doubt they're that suicidal.

I mean I, personally, wouldn't mind a Lab-Lib coalition (as long as Laws is excluded, and they're not allowed anywhere near Health); but all the Labour partisans I know would flip a gasket.

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Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

I think he's being way too kind to the Scottish Lib Dems here. Predictions like Danny Alexander's seat being a "Definite Lib Dem Hold", seems to be way out of the mark - in the 2011 the Lib Dems fell to fourth place in Inverness and Bairn; and were eviscerated in the (proportional!) council. See also Gordon - which in 2015 will have no incumbent - marked as safe.
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Frankly, especially with some high profile retirements, the only safe Scottish Lib Dem seat is Alastair Carmichael in the Shetlands. The only thing that can save the Highlands seats is  SNP stagnation (they often perform worse in Westminster than Holyrood elections.

Conversely, he seems remarkably sure that Lib Dems will have significant defections to the Tories (especially in the South West), while underestimating the extent of bleeding to the left (especially in urban constituencies: see his predictions for Leeds North West; Bermondsy and Southwark; Haringey and Wood Green, Bristol West, Cardiff Central etc.

Is there any coalition that LibDems could be apart of and not completely destroy themselves?

I think if the Lib Dems continue to shift right, they can conceivably remain in relatively uncontroversial Lib-Con coalitions.

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Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

294 + 36 = 330 = very tenuous continuation of the coalition. Both Clegg and Cameron have the benefit of incumbency. Cameron could probably quit in his own time under those numbers if he keeps his promise to hold an EU referendum, which will encourage Conservative MPs to keep backing him and the coalition; Clegg steps down once the Lib Dems quit government, to serve as scapegoat for the sins of the coalition. Therefore, Labour and Lib Dems would vote against a Tory minority. I think if the Lib Dems get 36 seats, they'll be delighted, not in a mood for decapitation. I think they are more likely to get about 20 seats.

This is the article ( http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2014/02/05/why-the-libdem-seats-will-win-30-35-seats-in-2015 ) I'm basing my prediction of 36 LibDem seats on. Iain Dale is a Tory supporting journalist so he's no particular friend of the Libs.

I think he's being way too kind to the Scottish Lib Dems here. Predictions like Danny Alexander's seat being a "Definite Lib Dem Hold", seems to be way out of the mark - in the 2011 the Lib Dems fell to fourth place in Inverness and Bairn; and were eviscerated in the (proportional!) council. See also Gordon - which in 2015 will have no incumbent - marked as safe.

Anyone who knows anything about Highland voting patterns knows not to draw too many conclusions from local elections.  The independent vote is too high.  Aberdeenshire, on the other hand, is more party political.

True, I'm not saying that Alexander is dead (in the same way that, say, Jo Swinson is). But the idea that he is 'safe' seems ... presumptuous.

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The EP-election was an other bad news for Labour: The OpinionPolls claimed Lab. to be between UKIP and Con. - and suddenly they ended neck-to-neck with the latter!

I believe that Labour are hoping that Labour voters who voted for UKIP will vote for Labour at the general election, while Tory voters will vote for UKIP, clearly having learned absolutely nothing from their issues with the BNP over the last ten years or so

To be fair UKIP and the BNP are entirely different kettles of fish. The Tories were largely safe from the BNP, who could never escape their thuggish roots. UKIP, however, are palatable enough to completely hoover up the conservative working class  ("Essex men") portion of the Tories' base and take a fair wedge of other aspirational Tories in the Home Counties and Midlands.

I think most ancestral Labour voters that are voting UKIP in 2015, would have probably jumped ship around New Labour. To be cynical, Labour doesn't need them back to win a majority.

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Probably tit-for-tat deals: UKIP would agree not to run in Con-Lab and Con-Lib marginals, in "payment" not running in wherever UKIP are targeting or shared resources. Perhaps some "fusion voting" going on - MP's being elected as Conservative - UKIP.

Not that it'll happen as you rightly point out. Farage is far too clever for that kind of trick.

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OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

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OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

I wouldn't give much credence to that poll

Well, obviously; but it's still mad.

I wonder if Oakeshott will be kicked out of the party for this? I don't know how much loyalty is enforced in the Lords, but surely this crosses some sort of line...

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The tragic thing about the Lib Dems is they need to be built into a party of coherent ideology, unlike the loosely defined pre-2010 mess. That means either switching to FDP-style classical liberalism or a progressive social democratic party. Clegg, is broadly sympathetic to the former, but his actions in the coalition seem more inspired by bland centrism. To a degree, Farron is the same - bravely umming and erring through this parliament.

In a way, 2015 could help the Lib Dems lose their dead wood. Whatever happens, their parliamentary nutters - Dave Ward, John Hemmings, Mike Hancock etc. - are dead in the water. Shame that the only two people competent enough to lead the party as a coherent idealogical group - Chris Huhne or David Laws - were dethroned by scandals.

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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-2014.pdf


Ashcroft has polled some Lib/Con marginals. The incumbency effect has never been so clear - seats with Tory incumbents have the Liberals rocketing backwards, often relegated to third or fourth. When voters are not prompted about their own constituency it's even worse.

Of their present seats, they are suffering worst in their SW base. (Sutton and Cheam, Cheadle and Eastleigh are the sole holds; though Cheadle is close.)

For optimists in the Liberal ranks, the only Tory seat remotely at risk of reversing national trends and becoming an LD pickup is Watford, which is polled as 29-25-24-16. Closest seat here to fourway marginal, mmm.

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The effect of the Lib Dem vote depression will be primarily seen in seats where they never had any chance and perpetually took around 15% of the vote. Because under normal circumstances so much of the Liberals vote is wasted, they can afford to lose huge chunks of their national vote and still gain a decent caucus. If the party is polling nationally in the early teens, but they only managed to get 2% in Newark; that means the remaining LD voters are super concentrated.

I wish Ashcroft polled Labour held Lab-Lib marginals like Sheffield Central. Mainly because I want to see if the Greens have managed to steal chunks of the vote.

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Labour's net gain from Lib Dems is just % margin Lab - C. Lots of Lib Dems will be going to NOTA, some to UKIP and some to Greens, which are all useless to Labour. And some will even go Conservative. There is some reason why these people didn't vote Labour in 2010 and, often, for many years previously. (A classic example is Sheffield, Hallam, right? They've never chosen a Labour MP for years, if ever?)

My instinct would be to disagree, but I haven't seen any polls on 2010 Lib Dem voters and their 2015 intention, so I won't get bogged down in conjecture.

However, the rapid decline in Liberal polling numbers at the beginning of the coalition was mirrored by the Labour figures, so it seems the effect of progressives returning "to the flock" is not negligible. This could be enough to overwhelm the Tories in key Lab-Con marginals. Like you said, in Liberal territory like Sheffield Hallam everyone's psephology goes all screwy.

The Greens really lack the high status and sexiness to pull a good protest vote and I'd expect UKIP draw very little of its voter poll from people tempted by the Liberals (with the exception of the poor South West).

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Talking of the SNP, have we seen any general election polls just for Scotland? Will the Nats take advantage of their sweep in 2011? (Assuming a "No" vote in the referendum, of course)

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LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

I basically agree on the LD/Lab battle, but I think the Lib Dems will hold the odd one or two of those seats.  Bermondsey and Yardley, given obvious personal votes, are candidates IMO.  (Can someone explain how the Lib Dems got so strong in Yardley in the first place?  It doesn't have much in common with the Lib Dem strongholds in other major cities.)  I don't know about Leeds NW: the swing needed is very large, and I think Mulholland is reasonably popular, but it's a university seat.

The LD/Con battle is unpredictable; I wouldn't be surprised by the sort of losses you're talking about (and possibly even the odd gain) but nor would I be surprised by much more serious losses as the tactical votes evaporate, as EPG suggests.

I think Yardley is leaning pretty drastically towards Labour at present. The Liberals did decently in the locals in its wards, but the Yardley often votes more Liberals locally than as an MP. Plus Hemming is a bit of a nutcase and his personal life has come under question. He doesn't have that same long-term charm that Simon Hughes can use in Bermondsy.

Liberal losses in LD/Con marginals may be mitigated by Conservative to UKIP swing. Whatever happens, this election will be probably the most useless ever for the swingometer of old.

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As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.

Has he officially been deselected yet?

Meanwhile, Danny Alexander has taken over the role of chief economic spokesman for the election from Vince Cable.

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Yes, either those three or Tristram Hunt who is broadly media-pleasing, while being less glued to unpopular New Labour figures than Cooper or Umanna.

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There is really people liking Chukka Ummana? I mean, he sounds like a right-wing version of Tony Blair.

Weird how the only two leaders that have won Labour a general election since Clement Attlee in 1950 are held in such low esteem by so many.

At the same time most of the Labour leaders that failed at the ballot box are generally quite fondly remembered such as Gaitskell, Callaghan, Foot and even Kinnock.

If it wasn't for Iraq and his post-office behaviour, Blair wouldn't be so reviled. True, he'd be distrusted by the traditional members; but he'd probably be remembered as Labour's Clinton.

Callaghan, I think gets more pathos points than "fond respect"; while Foot is sort of a British left-wing Barry Goldwater - one who blew it, but still is respected for (appearing to) stick to "principles".

Also, I think a lot of people respect Kinnock (and Smith) for doing most of the legwork modernising Labour when the party looked like it was headed to oblivion, before Blair's team waltzed in and took all the credit.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iain_Duncan_Smith

(Pushed out though I guess)

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Another view...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/07/its-poll-lead-holds-labour-divided-between-those-who-fear-defeat-and-those-who-fear

This raises he question how big a problem it would be to raise the taxes enough to pay for the public sector. Could Miliband "tax the rich" enough or would it mean too much capital flight or problems with his own right wing?

I have seen some speculation that NI contributions will rise to pay for the NHS under Labour. That may be broadly accepted.

Oh yeah, and I think the mansion tax will get through. Not sure how much money that will actually raise, but still.

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It's not my biggest problem with him, I just mentioned it ex grege.
But "Labour" is old-fashioned and fits now better to the blue-collarish BNP.
"Progressives" is exactly the counterpart to "Conservatives" and means exactly that the LEFT stands for (20.century WhiteWorkingClass, now Immigrants/CivilServants/Students/UnEmployed/NonWorkers/...).

True, Labour has lost a certain amount of appeal for the white collar classes. But not to the extent of such widespread and irreversible collapse that a name change would be useful - if they change their name it'll just be a " you" to the base; with not much conceivable benefit.

The only name change in European politics that might help electorally is the French Socialists to Social Democrats (like Valls wants) and PASOK to ... anything really.

I'm pretty sure that a Labour solely focused on those groups would be pretty marginal, especially if named the tarred label of "Progressive".

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Incidentally Thanet's district council is also fully up in 2015. Currently UKIP have no councillors there (last election was pre-UKIP bump) , but they performed so spectacularly well that I'm wondering whether they could rocket into first place - perhaps becoming the most likely UKIP local admin in the country?

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The Spectator produced an interesting article on the demographics of Thanet South a month ago:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/07/could-farage-win-if-he-stands-in-thanet-south/

Being local to Thanet South (Ramsgate), I seriously hope we don't give UKIP their first Westminster seat, and Farage standing in Thanet South will end any hope of a Tory hold here next year. But the Tory candidate, Craig Mackinlay (former UKIP), is just as eurosceptic as Farage which will make things interesting. Labour on the otherhand have already started their 2015 campaign, and are standing the young (and some say inexperienced) Will Scobie, the only non-UKIP KCC Thanet representative, from Margate. 

Tories nominating a candidate as Eurosceptic as UKIP didn't help matters in Eastleigh...

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Boston did give the highest vote to UKIP (51%) in the country in the 2014 European elections ... for what it's worth.

In theory at least that's UKIP's most credible target in the country (and by some margin). Tories have to be careful with candidate selection.

In fairness UKIP themselves may have their own difficulties recruiting a (competent) candidate in 2015. The Wikipedia profile for the constituency paints a pretty sordid tale of intra-party bickering amongst local Kippers (as joevsimp just alluded to).