UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Clyde1998]

They're predicting Clegg to lose his seat...

Interesting Ashcroft poll for Sheffield Hallam:

If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (Of those likely to vote)
LAB - 33% (+17% compared to 2010 election)
CON - 23% (-1%)
LIB - 17% (-36%)
UKIP - 14% (+12%)
GRN - 12% (+10%)
OTH - 1% (-3%)
Swing - 26.5% from LIB to LAB

And thinking specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency at the next general election? (Of those likely to vote)
LAB - 32% (-1% on previous question)
LIB - 26% (+9%)
CON - 18% (-5%)
UKIP - 14% (N/C)
GRN - 11% (-1%)
OTH - <0.5%
Swing - 8% from LIB to LAB

Both polls are unweighted on 2010 voting share. The second question with weighing on 2010 vote shows are 3% Lib Dem lead.

Could be a Labour gain...

Interesting the change in opinion when asked specifically about their own constituency as well...

[Clyde1998]

I tend to think that a noisy Labour campaign would be counterproductive. Of course activists and resources won't be directed there anyway; as fun as trolling can be, this is a seat where Labour only polled 16% in 2010. If a freak win happens a freak win happens, but its not worth trying for.

If it does happen it would be the "Portillo moment" of the election.

I think though - it's Lib Dem voters in 2010 moving to Labour that will be the only way Labour would win that seat. I doubt enough will move for a Labour gain.

[Clyde1998]

SCOTLAND POLL - SURVATION
SNP - 48% (+2% on November poll; +28% on 2010 election)
LAB - 24% (N/C on Nov; -18% on 2010)
CON - 16% (-1% on Nov; -1% on 2010)
LIB - 5% (-1% on Nov; -14% on 2010)
UKIP - 4% (N/C on Nov; +3% on 2010)
GRN - 1% (-1% on Nov; N/C on 2010)

SNP landslide looking likely, with the Daily Record predicting (using UNS)
SNP - 54 seats (+48)
LAB - 4 seats (-37)
LIB - 1 seat (-10)
CON - 0 seats (-1)

[Clyde1998]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

Meanwhile, the same poll projects that Labour will lose all of their constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament if an election was held today, with another SNP majority.

Labour falling apart in Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

And if Labour have a good campaign and eek out a majority without Scotland, Canadian Liberal style, then lol

I doubt Labour would be able to manage that - they might have to rely on SNP support to govern.

I kind reminder than most were still predicting a Cameron landslide this time 5 years ago.

The Conservative vote share only dropped by 3% between the final few polls of 2009 and the election. Labour's vote pretty much stayed the same. But the Lib Dem vote increased by about 6%.

There wasn't much overall change between the voting intentions at the end of 2009 and the election results.

[Clyde1998]

Newbury. Conservative landslide probably, unless the Lib Dems do something major.

However, in the Hungerford by-election for the local council, the Lib Dems cut the Conservative majority from around 300 to around 50 last year...

[Clyde1998]

I'll be voting for the first time in Bolton South East.  Safe Labour seat, nothing to see here and I don't think any of the other parties have even selected a candidate yet.

Last time I voted in Bolton West which turned out to be a knife-edge marginal.

Depending on the UKIP factor, I could see Labour getting over 50% in that seat. I'd be very surprised if Labour don't win it.

[Clyde1998]

I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.

Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

[Clyde1998]

For the record I'm voting SNP in the GE (while I have done at Holyrood, the Tories have got my GE votes in the past even though they count for nothing)

Which constituency do you live in?

[Clyde1998]

The Guardian are reporting about the possibility of a "national coalition" - between the Conservatives and Labour to prevent a "full-blown constitutional crisis". (https://archive.today/ww2Yf)

The current projection (from http://electionforecast.co.uk/)/b]
LAB - 289 seats (37 short)
CON - 276
N/G - 37
SNP - 34
LIB - 26
DUP - 8
UKIP - 3
SDLP - 3
PC - 2
GRN - 1
OTH - 8 (I expect SF - 5)
SNP, PC and GRN currently operate as one block in parliament - shown as "N/G".

Target - 326 (or 323 without SF)

So - the other scenarios are:
LAB + N/G + SDLP - 329 (3 maj)
LAB + N/G - 326 (0 maj)
LAB + LIB + SDLP - 318 (8 short)
LAB + LIB - 315 (11 short)
CON + LIB + DUP + UKIP - 313 (13 short)
CON + LIB + DUP - 310 (16 short)
CON + LIB - 302 (24 short)

Could be interesting...

[Clyde1998]

"one Downing Street insider punt the concept of a Tory-Lib Dem-Green coalition, a senior Tory suggest a Conservative-SNP deal based on faster devolution, and a Labour figure float a Labour-Lib Dem-SNP-Plaid Cymru agreement reliant on big tax rises and slower spending cuts."

This seems very, ehm ... creative. How credible is the writer?

I'm not sure really, but they're not the only ones reporting it...

FT - https://archive.today/F60Oj
Spectator - https://archive.today/RGEIC
New Statesman - https://archive.today/IQYmK

The Tories and Labour are out of touch at the moment though...

Conservative-SNP deal will never happen.

[Clyde1998]

I would like to see the following debate format

England
Debate One: All parties with a Party Election Broadcast
Debate Two: All parties with more than 10% of the popular vote in 2010
Debate Three: All parties fielding more than 326 candidates and polling more than 10% averaged over the last twenty eight polls

Scotland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MSP
Debate Two: All parties fielding 59 candidates

Wales
Debate One: All parties with at least one AM
Debate Two: All parties fielding 40 candidates

Northern Ireland
Debate One: All parties with at least one MLA
Debate Two: All Unionist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Three: All Nationalist Parties with at least one MLA
Debate Four: All Other Parties with at least one MLA

So...

England
Debate 1: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP, Green, BNP* , English Democrats*
Debate 2: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem
Debate 3: Conservative, Labour, UKIP

Scotland
Debate 1: SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Green
Debate 2: SNP, Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Green*, UKIP*

Wales
Debate 1: Labour, Conservative, Plaid, Lib Dem
Debate 2: Labour, Conservative, Plaid, Lib Dem, Green*, UKIP*

Northern Ireland
Debate 1: DUP, Sinn Fein, SDLP, UUP, Alliance, NI21, Green, TUV, UKIP
Debate 2: DUP, UUP, NI21, UKIP, TUV
Debate 3: Sinn Fein, SDLP
Debate 4: Alliance, Green

*I'm not quite sure if they would fit 100%, but it's a best guess.

EDIT: Correcting Northern Ireland errors.

[Clyde1998]

TUV is clearly unionist, not other.

Whoops. I've change that.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov - http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xmabfwwp6h/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-120115.pdf/b]
LAB - 33% (28% in Scotland)
CON - 32% (16% in Scotland)
UKIP - 17% (7% in Scotland)
LIB - 6% (3% in Scotland)
GRN - 6% (2% in Scotland)
NAT - 4% (43% in Scotland)
OTH - 2% (1% in Scotland)

[Clyde1998]

Labour have put up probably the worst possible candidate they could have in Gordon.

What has he done?

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-cream-of-the-crop/

[Clyde1998]

An interesting graph from ncpolitics (which is a bit of a stat wank site but all good fun) on 'swingback.' While there are big heavy caveats it does suggest that if the swingback to the government is anything like the average, then the Tories could repeat their 7point lead over Labour.

So we should expect to improve their current position by around 4% by the general election?

[Clyde1998]

Have you got a map for Scotland?

[Clyde1998]

Wings Over Scotland/Panelbase Poll:
THE VOTING AGE SHOULD BE LOWERED TO 16
Scotland - Agree: 43%; Disagree 49%; Net agreement: -6%
rUK - Agree: 25%; Disagree: 66%; Net agreement: -41%

PEOPLE SHOULD BE PROSECUTED FOR OFFENSIVE, BUT NON-THREATENING, COMMENTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA LIKE TWITTER AND FACEBOOK
Scotland - Agree: 47%; Disagree: 37%; Net agreement: +10
rUK - Agree: 46%; Disagree: 37%; Net agreement: +9

THE DEATH PENALTY SHOULD BE BROUGHT BACK FOR MURDER
Scotland - Agree: 55%; Disagree: 33%; Net agreement: +22
rUK - Agree: 49%; Disagree: 36%; Net agreement: +13

PEOPLE CONVICTED OF ILLEGALLY DOWNLOADING MUSIC, FILMS OR VIDEOGAMES SHOULD BE IMPRISONED
Scotland - Agree: 10%; Disagree: 76%; Net agreement: -66
rUK - Agree: 11%; Disagree: 75%; Net agreement: -64

THE SECURITY SERVICES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MONITOR ANYONE’S PHONE CALLS, EMAILS ETC AT WILL
Scotland - Agree: 29%; Disagree: 61%; Net agreement: -32
rUK - Agree: 36%; Disagree: 54%; Net agreement: -18

CHED EVANS SHOULD BE PERMITTED TO RESUME HIS FOOTBALL CAREER AFTER SERVING A PRISON TERM FOR RAPE
Scotland - Agree: 28%; Disagree: 53%; Net agreement: -25
rUK - Agree: 29%; Disagree: 51%; Net agreement: -22

More to follow.

The poll sampled 1007 respondents in Scotland and 1031 across the rest of the UK. Fieldwork 9-14 Jan 2015. Full data tables will be available on the Panelbase website.

[Clyde1998]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas

Well, ya, but Brighton Kemptown and Hove voted for the conservatives. Is this a sort of "disunion of the left" type deal due to vote-splitting?

Also, why did the Greens get prominent down there and not the LibDems.

There's a large student vote. The polls suggest that the Greens are currently second amount younger voters (18-24 year olds). The Greens finished well among that age category in the last election as well.

[Clyde1998]

Scotland Full-Scale Poll (Panelbase)

SNP - 41% (-4% on November poll)
LAB - 31% (+3%)
CON - 14% (-1%)
UKIP - 7% (N/C)
LIB - 3% (N/C)
Others - 3% (+1)

Seats:
SNP - 35 (+29)
LAB - 20 (-21)
CON - 2 (+1)
LIB - 2 (-9)

[Clyde1998]

SCOTLAND POLL - SURVATION
SNP - 45.8% (52 seats)
LAB - 26.2% (6 seats)
CON - 14.2% (0 seats)
LIB - 6.7% (1 seat)
UKIP - 3.8%
GRN - 2.6%

[Clyde1998]

It would be better to ignore all 'seat projections' as they are invariably total bullsh!t.

I think it's based on uniform swing, but they were the numbers Survation themselves were giving - so they might have more data that they haven't released about constituencies.

The sub-samples put the SNP at 40% in South Scotland, Labour on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%, which could lead to the SNP capture of Dumfriesshire (which seems doubtful, at this stage).

Although one poll means nothing on its own, but Survation are the only pollster that release the regional voting data.

[Clyde1998]

SNP at 52% in Scotland with Ipsos Mori

What has been their best polling so far?

Their previous best was also 52%, also in a Mori poll, back in October:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland

Poll to two decimal figures:
SNP - 52.54% (should be rounded up to 53% on the headline figures)
Labour - 24.04%
Conservative - 12.33%
Liberal Democrat - 4.31%
Green - 3.70%
UKIP - 1.23%
Socialists - 0.92%
Independents - 0.77%
Other - 0.15%

33% of SNP voters say they are "much less likely" to vote Labour now Jim Murphy has become Scottish Labour leader, and he has a trust rating of -42% among SNP supporters.

[Clyde1998]

Or it quickly becomes a game of 6 vs. 1.

And fair enough to the Greens, but why SNP and Plaid? 85% of the country can't even vote for them.

They had separate Scottish, Welsh and NI debates last time. What's wrong with that?

Yes, there will be more people critical of Cameron, though they will also criticise Labour. However, there will be weak coherence of each participant's critique and it will be less convincing than a sustained argument from one or two leaders. It is noteworthy that with the Greens, Plaid and SNP each represented, the proposed format will give strong representation to left-wing critiques of the UK government.

SNP have won more votes and MPs than the Greens at every general election and were therefore chosen by more British people when it mattered - perhaps the question I should be asking is how "choosable" they were. There the SNP do worse, but nonetheless in 2010, a majority of the country couldn't vote for the Green Party of England and Wales.

My experience in Canadian politics is that separatist parties make for crappy debates.

The 2011 Scottish election debate convinced a lot of people to vote SNP - here's the STV debate if you want to watch it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZWow6nKvDk

The opinion poll at the start of the programme suggests the SNP and Labour were level before this debate - and the SNP won the election by a landslide.

The SNP will probably want answers about the Smith Commission, on more powers to Scotland, and Plaid Cymru will probably be asking for more powers for Wales. But both won't focus on this for the entire debate - and I'll expect both to bring up issues about poverty and inequality in a debate.

[Clyde1998]

SNP lead shrinking in Scotland in the two latest polls:

http://may2015.com/featured/is-labour-starting-to-turn-the-tide-in-scotland/

Not based on those polls, no. The Panelbase poll that saw a huge drop in SNP support asked the Voting Intention question third. The first question was about how oil prices affected your view on independence. You really shouldn't do that. It's how they got interesting polls results during the referendum campaign. So the fact they got a result that is out of line with other polls isn't surprising. Survation saw SNP down two and SNP up two. Mori saw Labour up 1 and the SNP steady, though in fact the figure reported as 52% for the SNP was infact 52.5% and would usually be rounded up. So technically both parties were up one on that poll.

At the moment, it would be not be accurate to say that the SNP lead is falling. It's been pretty much the same as it has been since December.

The SNP and Labour are just moving around a certain point for each pollster.

The Panelbase order was very strange. They've done a similar thing before though - in a referendum poll that put the Yes campaign ahead in August 2013.

***

On a partially related note - there was a by-election for the Fife council yesterday:

Kirkcaldy East
SNP - 47.3% (+10.9%)
LAB - 35.3% (-14.7%)
CON - 7.2% (+1.2%)
GRN - 4.1% (+4.1%)
UKIP - 3.8% (+3.8%)
LIB - 1.3% (-1.5%)
OTH/IND - 1.0% (-3.8%)
Turnout - 27.27% (-7.3% on 2012 Election)
Swing - 12.8% from Labour to SNP.

A massive swing to the SNP in Gordon Brown's backyard - although I do note the low turnout.