UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Хahar 🤔]

The thing about the Miliband concern trolling is that it's so incredibly boring. You'd expect something like this to at least be interesting, but it's not.

[Хahar 🤔]

Even since the UKIP surge in 2013, I have become convinced that the next election will see the following vote shares:

Conservatives 30%
Labour 30%
UKIP 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%

According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in a House of Commons with: Labour 317, Conservatives 274, Liberal Democrats 29, SNP 7, Plaid 3, Greens 1, Northern Ireland 18

UNS will be even more irrelevant this time round. I think UKIP could get more than 10 if that was the vote share.

What seats would UKIP possibly win, other than Farage's?

[Хahar 🤔]

What result would be good enough for Clegg to remain leader?

[Хahar 🤔]

Bradford West will be the most interesting result in England, at least for me.

[Хahar 🤔]

Who knows? Respect have (already!) fallen apart in Bradford somewhat (for the usual reasons), but the so-called party is rather less important to Galloway's appeal than the loathsome half-genius himself.

Is it too cynical to assume that the biraderi element in the local party, faced with an all-woman shortlist imposed from Head Office, decided to make the choice most likely to give them the chance to choose a favourite son in 2020?

Is there any evidence to that effect?

[Хahar 🤔]

Belfast East is almost certainly a lost cause, but it seems unlikely that anything else changes this year. Gerry Kelly picking up Belfast North for Sinn Féin seems like a matter of "when" rather than "if".