UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[MaxQue]

My prediction -

Conservatives win an overall majority for the first time since 1992 winning somewhere around 315 - 325 seats

315-325 isn't a majority. 325 is exactly 50% of seats.

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

It's outdated, Farage confirmed a few weeks ago than he will run somewhere in Kent. Boston and Skegness is in Lincolnshire and the local UKIP imploded since 2013 there (they are now sitting in three groups. 11 in UKIP, 3 in "Independence from Europe" and 2 with "Lincolnshire Independents").

[MaxQue]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

Yes, I do, sir.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/05/where-will-nigel-farage-stand-2015

Given than you are our eurosceptic resident hack, I don't know it's possible to consider your opinion as being something else than partisan wishful thinking.

First of all, it is the thinking of the NewStatesman's author, but yes, I share his views. Secondly, why should a Europhile be a better judge over UKIP's perspektives, or why should left-wing views about Conservatives and vice versa not be considered? Also, wishful thinking could go in both directions, couldn't it? If you do not like me to point out to this article, which comes up with a few answers to the question: just don't read it and stay with your preconceived opinion. But if you read it, tell us where the author gone wrong instead of calling me hack. Just try to be open minded.

It's outdated, Farage confirmed a few weeks ago than he will run somewhere in Kent. Boston and Skegness is in Lincolnshire and the local UKIP imploded since 2013 there (they are now sitting in three groups. 11 in UKIP, 3 in "Independence from Europe" and 2 with "Lincolnshire Independents").

You are absolutly right, that it is outdated! I have just found out just now, thanks to your advice, that it was published 7 May, 2013 and not 2014. F**k google news!

So, what to think about this one?: http://www.ukipdaily.com/general-election-2015-ukip-hotspots/#.U3gVqi9pTsE Wishful thinking, reasonable, or both?

Good analysis, but it shows than UKIP won only 2 seats of those, in a low turnout local elections. UKIP won plenty of areas in 2009 Euros, but 0 seats in the 2010 legislative election. The main difference between those elections is turnout and high turnout seems to favorize big parties, with big machines to get the voters out. Also, some voters use Euros to sent messages, but will return to their party for other elections. We will be able to make a more educated prediction after 2014 locals.

Also, in ridings like "Camborne and Redruth" and other close seats, no doubt than both close parties will have a strong ground campaign there, with leaflets highlighting than it was a two-horse race last time and than UKIP is far, far, far behind (ever heard of the dodgy UK bar charts?)

[MaxQue]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

I suppose they could get supply from some small parties (anyways, you can always get the support of Northern Irish parties against a few goodies (especially SDLP considering it's Labour).

[MaxQue]

There is really people liking Chukka Ummana? I mean, he sounds like a right-wing version of Tony Blair.

[MaxQue]

RedEd has disappointed me, for example, by overseeing to rename the outdated label "Labour" into "Progressives" or "Democrats". And with 100% I knew 2010, that the LDs in coalition would be halved, but with 70% I expected its left wing to depart from Liberals&coalition - also a missed chance!

Is that a joke?

[MaxQue]

Thanks! (As you can se My spellchecker is making fun out off me).

What about a boundary change?! Not even Labour can think that the current system is fair?!

Let's not forget than new boundaries were made for the 2010 election. A new map under current rules wouldn't change much. Labour vote is just better distributed (a Conservative majority is bigger in a safe seat than Labour in its own seats, especially considering how turnout is lower in cities than rural areas. I've also heard people saying than Labour ground game was better in swing ridings. You know, under FPTP, the election isn't really national, it's in the swing seat. It doesn't matter if you win a safe seat by 10k or 15k votes, you must win in swing seats. It's not proportionnal, it's FPTP and expectations aren't the same.
 
Conservatives tried, but it was voted down. Labour said they opposed the reduction in seats (from 650 to 600) and Liberal Democrats weren't liking the proposal map (it was apparently quite bad for them). And there was few other issues (going from a 10% deviation to a 5% one, which caused unlogical seats, because the commission had no leeway) and the insistance of the English commission to not split wards (commission just added whole wards until they had the right number, even if it was linking two random areas, cutting senselessly a city or the horrible "Mersey Bank", which had wards on both sides of the Mersey estuary, even if nobody would consider those areas to be linked and the fact there is no way to cross the river in that area!").

Liberal Democrats and Labour voted to postpone the boundary change. New process will begin in 2015, for new boundaries in 2018.

[MaxQue]

The Tories on their lowest ever with ComRes tonight at 27%.

Terrible news for Ed Miliband.

But UKIP at 17 and Greens at 7 isn't believable.

[MaxQue]

What a good thing I have spent today organising my battleground charts, eh?

Labour currently have 258 MP's (yes, I know they lost Bradford West and gained Corby but this is as of the last election and by-elections don't count), therefore in order to win a majority they need to gain 68 seats. The 68th Labour target is Norwich North and that would go to Labour on a swing of 4.58% (a national Labour lead of 1.86%). For every seat that the SNP gain from Labour, Labour have to gain another seat from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru so if (as some polls have been suggesting) Labour lose 37 of their Scottish seats to the SNP, Labour have to gain another 37 from other sources which would take them to target number 105 Derbyshire South (when allowing for Scottish targets it would be 109 which is Cambridge on a swing of 7.43%, a national Labour lead of 7.56%)

But it would need a swing a little bit smaller than 7.56%, given than if their vote in Scotland is sharply down, their English vote is up a little bit, for the same national voteshare.

[MaxQue]

Thanks for the reply
1.Is she the Green Party leader?
2.Was she elected in a by election or at the last general election? and was she party leader at the time?

She was elected at the last general election and she was the leader then, but stepped down as leader since then.

[MaxQue]

TUV is clearly unionist, not other.

[MaxQue]

When would Gordon ever have been a "winnable target for Ed Miliband"?

Because the Lib Dems collapsed and Malcolm Bruce is retiring. Labour were second in the seat in 2005 and were just a bit behind the SNP in 2010.

Sorry, Afleitch, but that's anti-Labour hackery and you know it.

[MaxQue]

When would Gordon ever have been a "winnable target for Ed Miliband"?

Because the Lib Dems collapsed and Malcolm Bruce is retiring. Labour were second in the seat in 2005 and were just a bit behind the SNP in 2010.

Sorry, Afleitch, but that's anti-Labour hackery and you know it.

It's not hackery to point out that Labour could have targeted Gordon! It only needs an 8% swing which isn't much more than they would need to take Cambridge from the Lib Dems. I'm not saying it was number 1 on their target list, but it's not entirely an un-winnable seat for them demographically speaking.

They never ever won Gordon or any past riding covering the area, nor they ever won it in Scottish Parliament. And it's likely Salmond will win that riding in a landslide anyways, no matter who Labour ran.

[MaxQue]

Mark Pack is a LibDem. Apparently LibDems diversified and now do misleading line charts, instead of sticking only to misleading bar charts.

[MaxQue]

19% of people don't know what UKIP's policies on Europe are?

Well, roughly at least 20% of the population is essentially clueless when it comes to politics.

[MaxQue]

No just no. ICHC doesn't exist anymore and as for Respect, the only appropriate answer is LOL.

[MaxQue]

I seem to remember a similar effect last time out with 1 or 2 pollsters still insisting on a 10-15% Tory lead right up until the day of the 1st debate.

Funny that Angus Reid hasn't been heard of since the last election.

Last poll from them was from April 2013, but they do issues polls in Canada/USA/UK once in a while, last time in May about Ukraine crisis.

[MaxQue]

How surprising! English nationalists hate Wales and Scotland.