UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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Anyway, notice how the Tories seemed to have a learned a lesson from 1997 - there aren't really any cabinet members in even semi-marginal seats.

Indeed.

The most marginal is Greening in Putney, right?

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Total random question, but is West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine a potential Scottish pick-up for the Tories, even if they lose the general election?

It's possible, if there's a huge vote split- but it's more likely the SNP would leap to a winning percentage- all I can say for certain is that it' one of Scottish Labour's "impossibles"

Even though the boundaries are different, the SNP got a massive swing in 2011.

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Michael Ignatieff (yes, that one) saying he expects Labour to win almost by default on Daily Politics today. Kiss of death?

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If the leader of the opposition is not seen as a credible potential prime minister history shows they tend to lose general elections.

Yeah, just ask Thatcher in 1979.

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If the leader of the opposition is not seen as a credible potential prime minister history shows they tend to lose general elections.

Yeah, just ask Thatcher in 1979.

Or Tony Abbot, for that matter.

I still see the point though. Miliband's terrible approval rating could well be a problem for Labour in 2015 - particularly if the Tories succeed in making the election into a "presidential" one, with more focus on the PM candidates than on the parties they lead.

They made the last election a presidential one and look how that turned out.

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I don't quite get people assuming a "swing back" from Labour to Liberal. If 2010 Liberals get cold feet about Miliband in 2015, I'd assume they'd sooner not turn up than make Clegg the kingmaker again.

If they couldn't do as well as excepted in 2010 even with all the euphoria around them, I don't see them having many voters being enthusiastic about voting Liberal again.

And in the end, voters who turn up and are happy with the government will vote Tory, voters who turn up and aren't happy will vote Labour (or UKIP, of course).

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Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

Tory minority or another Tory-LD.

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Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

In that case the LibDem.s would surely make a coalition with Labour!

*strokes chin*

Something tells me that Farron would be no more open to Labour than Clegg would be. I seem to remember him mouthing off at one of the by-election counts (Barnsley?) about how Labour have all gone Marxist since 2010.

Lab-Lib would be a disaster for all involved.

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OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

Too good to be true and the local results don't reflect these polls. But still, I feel that every single one of their MPs will be terrified by these numbers.

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OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

A lot of journalistic over-reaction. The EU elections are not taken seriously by anyone in the UK so it's a perfect opportunity for a protest vote. What does the European Parliament do that can't be over ruled by the Commission for example?

I'm not a big fan of Clegg (a third rate actor who comes across as insincere) but I'm guessing the Lib Dem vote will shore-up during the election campaign in April 2015 and they'll win at least 30-35 seats.

After that what happens next depends on the mathematics of the election result just as it did in May 2010.

They won one council area yesterday and even that was close.

That's more than just the election just being a free-hit...

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I wonder if Oakeshott will be kicked out of the party for this? I don't know how much loyalty is enforced in the Lords, but surely this crosses some sort of line...

Oakeshott has resigned from the party.  His parting shot includes two more constituency polls, one in Twickenham showing Cable narrowly behind (Con 34 LD 32 Lab 23 UKIP 5) and one in Inverness et al showing Alexander in a poor third (SNP 32 Lab 25 LD 16 Con 12 UKIP 7).

(Statement here.)

He gets forced out for saying what literally everyone thinks about Clegg, but someone like Rennard gets to stay. Stay classy LibDems.

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I've watched Oakeshott in interviews on numerous occasions on tv and each time he came across as a head strong tetchy idiot.

Ironically the polls he conducted (which used tiny sample sizes) seem to show the Lib Dems would do only marginally better if his hero Vince Cable was leader.

The main problem they have with their ex-voters from 2005 and 2010 is that they went into coalition with the hated Tories and not that Clegg is the party leader (although obviously that is a major problem too).

Cable was the architect of the tuition fee policy. Hardly difficult to see that he's as much of a dead-man-walking as Clegg is.

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Been looking over some of the target seats and the more I look, the more unpredictable this election looks. Surely gonna see the oddest set of results that we've seen for a long time.

Results like a rather healthy swing to Labour in Leeds North West, but a pretty harsh one against them 40 minutes down the road in Rotherham. This being one example of contrast.

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General Elections are not local elections with a high turnout. And even if they were, it wouldn't be advisable to take just one year's results.

You saying that UKIP won't do well in South Yorkshire?

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As expected, Ashcroft is showing LDs getting slaughtered where they're fighting Labour.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Labour-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-2014.pdf

The Libs would lose all seats polled (Bradford East, Brent Central, Manc' Withington, Norwich South) and Brighton Pav' would be too close to call between Labour and the Greens. Even on the "in my own constituency" question, the Libs would fall from 1st to a distant 5th in Norwich South.

But then, none of these poll results here are that shocking. I guess this means even the likes of Mulholland and Hughes are in danger.

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These are the four most marginal LD-Lab seats, all won with smaller than 5% majorities. If Labour were not winning these, something would be seriously wrong with national polling. My guess is that Alexander and Hughes should be safe for the Lib Dems in this category but maybe not Featherstone. Still, thanks to post-97 tactical voting, there aren't that many seats Labour can take from the Lib Dems (maybe 10 on a good day).

It's not that Labour are winning these seats in this poll that is notable, it's the size of the swings.  On those swings, even on the second question Hughes and Mulholland would indeed be in trouble if their seats were to behave the same way.  Two of the seats show 19% swings from Lib Dem to Lab, a size of swing I am very keen on for some reason.

Yes. But the informed observer would have guessed there would be big swingback to Labour in these seats. They are mainly first-time, notional pick-ups for the Lib Dems, in what was their closest-ever election to Labour by a distance. You can categorise Redcar and Burnley in that bracket too, even though they're notionally safer, whereas the big Manchester, Withington swing is more interesting - Labour and the Lib Dems are back to their 2001 figures there. Anyway, this will be very much the tertiary battleground of the election. About a handful of seats are really up for grabs between the two parties. The net beneficiaries of the Lib Dem deflation will be the Tories if, as I think is likely, they end up with 20 to 30 seats.

The Libs will obviously do better against the Tories than Labour, but there'll still be some massive swings to the Tories from the Libs. Probably stating the obvious, but they'll hold seats they have no business holding (Eastleigh, anyone?) and lose ones which everyone has down as safe for them (Fife NE?).

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The effect of the Lib Dem vote depression will be primarily seen in seats where they never had any chance and perpetually took around 15% of the vote. Because under normal circumstances so much of the Liberals vote is wasted, they can afford to lose huge chunks of their national vote and still gain a decent caucus. If the party is polling nationally in the early teens, but they only managed to get 2% in Newark; that means the remaining LD voters are super concentrated.

Not necessarily good news across the board for their incumbents though. Everyone says to look at Eastleigh to show they can hold on, but their vote fell further than the Tory's vote there and they only got back in because of UKIP, which they won't have to help them in all their seats.

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But I cannot imagine, that in duells with the Tories Progressives won't vote tactically.

Presumibly because Labour supporters (and other progressives) doesn't view the LibDems as the least of two evils any longer, but equally bad as the Tories. 

I think some will think that way, while others will continue to hold their noses and vote for the Lib Dem.

For me it would depend on the Lib Dem.  For example, I'd be happy to vote for the sitting MPs in Torbay or St. Ive's, but not in Yeovil or in Taunton Deane; in the latter case I feel a Tory gain might be a shift left.

Then you have seats like Hallam and Leeds NW where Labour are clearly in second now, but finished in a distant third last time...

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Talking of the SNP, have we seen any general election polls just for Scotland? Will the Nats take advantage of their sweep in 2011? (Assuming a "No" vote in the referendum, of course)

Some earlier in the parliament, but no 'proper' polls for Scotland in a while because of the referendum. What seems to be happening in Scotland, at a quick glance, is pretty noticeable fall for Labour, with no Gordon Brown and LibDems seem to be going to the SNP rather than Labour in most places.

Anything could happen to voting intentions up there after a 'no' vote though.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html

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If one speaks about LAB's terrible losses to UKIP at EP and Newark, one should remind, that LAB-losses begin to outnumber those of the CON only, if UKIP climbs above ~16% - what happened 2014, but what won't happen 2015. So UKIP remains a grave problem for the Tories alone.

I wouldn't be so sure. UKIP present a problem to both parties, but in different measure. Both are losing significant parts of their base which would normally have no business but to vote the party that they've voted for their whole life.

Of course, it helps Labour in the marginals, but should UKIP actually come close to winning any seats, they'll surely beat Labour in battleground seats like Great Yarmouth and the Thanets. And both parties would be quite embarrassed to see UKIP running down their margins in their safe seats, but that means nothing on paper.

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As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

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LD will probably loose only 5-10 to CON and surely 14 to LAB: NorwichS, BradfordE, BrentC, Withington, Burnley, EastDunbartons, Yardley, EdinburghW, Redcar, Hornsey, CardiffC, Cambridge, Bermondsey, BristolW and perhaps LeedsNW. The seats in rural&remote Scotland&Wales are endangered more by SNP&PC.

There's only 2 seats with Labour in second where I'd say the Lib incumbent is 100% safe: Carmichael and Kennedy.

Their urban Scottish seats will swing to Labour and the SNP will do really well in the LD rural seats, I'd guess.

But we only have recent polling to go off, obviously. The LibDems were at about 10% in the EU election, until they actually started campaigning... The campaign itself could mean it becomes worse for the Libs than anyone really expects as of today.

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Yes, the 2 mentioned Highlands&Islands-LDs should be safe. The other 2 (Caithness&Inverness) are in doubt - three ways?

I was talking about the whole of the UK, but up in Scotland I'd say the Libs were favoured in Caithness & Inverness, but not safe.

I'd say that Argyll & Bute will be race between the SNP and Labour. The SNP should gain Gordon and they have a chance in Fife NE.

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And both coalition-parties will surely do clearly better than in the polls now

I wouldn't bet on it.

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As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

Saving himself the embarrassment.

10/57 LDs retiring (so far).

Wikipedia lists 9 LD-retirements. Who is the tenth?

Mike Hancock, a de facto retirement.