UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Phony Moderate]

May as well, since we now have a thread for the Canadian one.

So predictions, etc?

[Phony Moderate]

Anyway, notice how the Tories seemed to have a learned a lesson from 1997 - there aren't really any cabinet members in even semi-marginal seats.

[Phony Moderate]

My feelings:

Tories largest party with about 295-305 seats with Labour in the 280s and Lib Dems between 30 and 40. Another Tory-LD coalition is formed, lasts less than two years.

UKIP manage 10-12% of the vote but fail to win a single seat. In the aftermath of the election they become staunch advocates of electoral reform.

Caroline Lucas loses Brighton Pavilion by about 3,000 votes.

George Galloway holds on in Bradford West by about 1,000.

Plaid hold steady.

SNP make gains due to an unexpectedly close No victory in the referendum.

Probably little change in Northern Ireland.

[Phony Moderate]

Boris Johnson wants to become Tory leader an MP again.

[Phony Moderate]

Just a thought - how hilarious would the results in Liverpool be if Labour were led by Burnham and the Tories by Boris next year?

[Phony Moderate]

What happens if we see a result along these lines?

Lab - 290 seats
Con - 290 seats
SNP - 35 seats
Lib Dems - 20 seats

[Phony Moderate]

The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

The PCs started the 1993 campaign level pegging with the Liberals...

[Phony Moderate]

If the polls are still displaying roughly the same picture on May 7th 2015 as they are now then will anyone really bother doing an exit poll?

[Phony Moderate]

Anywhere where TUSC or the Communists can win a seat?

[Phony Moderate]

I wonder how well the English Dumbacrats will do there.

[Phony Moderate]

Scotland should become independent!

[Phony Moderate]

What constituencies are the UKers here in? Mine (the one I'll be voting in) is Bath. Sources tell me that the Tories are confident. Can't see it; the Lib Dem share will fall more sharply than in most of their seats in which the Tories are second due to A. Foster hugely increasing his share in 2010 and B. Student backlash, but it'll still be a 3-5,000 hold imo. The Labour candidate is a 20ish year-old student btw. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Phony Moderate]

The Tories need to be ahead by at minimum 2-3% in the popular vote to remain in office imo. The Tory lead at this stage in the previous parliament was only 3% higher than it achieved in the election. So you'd still have to (just) place your money on a Labour-led government. But the campaign itself will be more crucial than usual.

[Phony Moderate]

"But a monkey in a suit could have led Labour to victory in 1997 and 2001"

They also said that in 1992 and look what happened.

Yeah, the Tories swiftly dumped Thatcher and subsequently overtook Labour in the polls.

[Phony Moderate]

52% for right-wing parties? Vomit.

[Phony Moderate]

A recent constituency poll showed Lucas ahead by 10% and the constituency poll conducted around this point in the previous parliament predicted her victory too.

[Phony Moderate]

Wrt the other debate, more on that later but for now... um... some people seem to be forgetting what political life was like in the 1990s. The Major government was a slow-motion trainwreck's slow-motion trainwreck...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/04/tony-blair-vacuum-british-politics-centre-ground

As if right on cue Andrew Rawnsley has written this interesting piece about Tony Blair in the Guardian today. As usual with anything to do with Blair you get the usual snide and spiteful comments from Joe Public in the comments section underneath it.

On Labour disliking coalition as they don't want to share power with a bourgeois party Rawnsley neatly sums this up this type of thinking (although this time on who voted for Blair) in the same article by calling it a tribal ghetto mentality.

Is this a recent thing?  I believe most Labour governments were of the majority variety but I'm aware when they were in a minority in the 1970s they formed a government with the support of the precursor of the Liberal Democrats.  And, they were also part of the coalition governments during the war.

The Liberals gave Labour 'confidence and supply' during the Callaghan years, but it wasn't a formal coalition.

Also, the exact election date is now in the thread title.

[Phony Moderate]

First YouGov of the year: 34/31/14/7/8

Also, it seems that the official campaign has begun, and it will be four months long. Yet another argument for the repeal of that idiotic Fixed Terms (aka Americanization) bill.

[Phony Moderate]

So when are we going to hear more on debate proposals? Will it be a 4/3/2-way deal as suggested by Cameron? Hope not.

[Phony Moderate]

He's right on this one though.

[Phony Moderate]

Have we ever had a party leader this threatened before?

Not since Jeremy Thorpe in 1970.

[Phony Moderate]

Both showing a similar Tory share though. I'll begin to panic if/when they begin to make the 37-38% range.

[Phony Moderate]

As underwhelming as Ed may be, Labour would be doing worse if his brother were leader. If he couldn't manage to defeat his brother then he sure as heck wouldn't be on course to defeat David Cameron.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, since there hasn't been much cross over support this parliament between Lab and Con and most of the protest vote hasn't gone to Lab, surely the 'swingback' this time will be UKIP/Greens/SNP coming home?

Yes, and the main reason for the wipeout of the Labour lead over the past few months appears to be a leaking of Labour support to those three parties. If those voters come home, then for the most part the said home will not be the Conservative Party.

Best case scenario for both Labour and the Tories in the PV is a 5% win imo. The Tories need a disasterous Miliband campaign and to win back some UKIPers to achieve theirs and Labour needs to claw back Greens/UKIP/SNP defectors (coupled with at least a decent campaign) for theirs.

[Phony Moderate]

Regarding one-on-one situations, Brown was hardly a master at it (aside from the obvious 'Bigotgate', he completely ignored a question from a voter by dashing into his car very early on in the previous campaign) but the polls didn't detect a major effect from it. The UK isn't Canada; the only major polling event during campaigns has always almost been merely a moderate surge in centre party support.