UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[doktorb]

My personal feelings are:
Vote Share: Con 30%, Lab 30%, UKIP 20%, Lib Dem 10%, Others 10%
Seat Share: Con and Lab both around 300 with Lib Dems winning 0 - 5 seats making a coalition impossible. General Election held in November 2015 or Grand Coalition

300 seats each for the Conservative and Labour parties and up to 5 for us? Check your writings, Harry!

[doktorb]

Conservatives 36%
Labour 33%
Liberal Democrats 14%
UK Independence Party 9%
Others 8%

Tories 294 seats, Labour 291, Lib Dems 36, UKIP 0, Others 29

Anyone's guess what will happen if the result is anything like this. Clegg would probably step down though to be replaced by Farren as another coalition with Clegg there would do the LibDems nothing but more harm.

In that case the LibDem.s would surely make a coalition with Labour!

*strokes chin*

[doktorb]

I'm a LibDem of 14 years and counting. A Lab/Lib coalition is the last thing I want.

[doktorb]

So does anyone here think UKIP will pick up any seats?

UKIP will fail to pick up any seats. They will, I suspect, hand the election to Labour.

[doktorb]

Istr Charles has been reselected.

[doktorb]

OMG YL, have you seen this

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/nick-clegg-and-lib-dems-face-battle-for-survival

I doubt it, but it would make my first general election vote extremely worthwhile if I got to uproot a party leader.

I wouldn't give much credence to that poll

[doktorb]

There's a lot of unknown knowns. Southport could be held just by virtue of the local Tories collapsing like a souflee in a cupboard.

[doktorb]

Two very safe Labour seats now looking for new candidates/MPs presumptive, - Bootle, and from today Workington.

[doktorb]

As his seat of Redcar has been mentioned, it may be worth adding that its LibDem MP Ian Swales has announced he will not contest the next election

[doktorb]

I live and will vote in Preston. Safe Labour, nothing to see here. If you want marginal (or at least competitive) you have to go outside our immediate borders into South Ribble, or Chorley.

[doktorb]

I'm so excited for this campaign to get under way.

It is likely to be the harshest, rudest, most un-British campaign since, ooh, the last one. I remember as a youngster hearing how shocked people were at the tone of the 1992 election: this won't have nowt on that, I tell's thee.

There has been a change in party spending limits, incidentally, so not only will 2015 be the most highly charged election, it'll be the most expensive too. If the only curious thing about our general elections which attracted you was the sight of all the candidates lined up like prized pigs at a country fair during results night, I suspect there's going to be an entire shed-load of things to keep you engrossed this time.

[doktorb]

I'm so excited for this campaign to get under way.

It is likely to be the harshest, rudest, most un-British campaign since, ooh, the last one. I remember as a youngster hearing how shocked people were at the tone of the 1992 election: this won't have nowt on that, I tell's thee.

There has been a change in party spending limits, incidentally, so not only will 2015 be the most highly charged election, it'll be the most expensive too. If the only curious thing about our general elections which attracted you was the sight of all the candidates lined up like prized pigs at a country fair during results night, I suspect there's going to be an entire shed-load of things to keep you engrossed this time.

The big wildcard of the campaign is Ed Miliband himself. Ed. Every day. With real people. That's not happened before and hasn't been allowed to happen. It might go exceptionally well, or if he just comes across as odd for four weeks could bring Labour's campaign crashing down.

Absolutely. Each appearance has been few and far between (often because of the mopping up afterwards). They can't hide him for two months between March and May. We're not looking at a "Sarah Palin moment", I don't think, but if anybody in the current UK party leaderships looks likely to sink an entire campaign on their own, it's Ed.

[doktorb]

I'm tipping another election within a few months, or otherwise a Labor minority government.

Can anyone clarify the following for me? If the next election produces a result where no viable coalition can be created am I right in thinking that Cameron would stand down as PM, Milliband would be invited and then stand down as PM and Parliament would have to vote to dissolve itself under the rules of the Fixed Term Parliament Act?

I *think* that's how it works, yes.

[doktorb]

Journalists are trying to who up two stories in the past week or so: Clegg losing, or a Grand Coalition. Both very interesting dinner party chin-strokers, I'm sure, but otherwise nowt but politico clickbait

[doktorb]

If those people really exist in such a great number, they're angry at the voting system, not us.

[doktorb]

Miliband is quite good at PMQs and didn't embarrass himself in the debates for Labour leader. It shouldn't be assumed that he'd struggle at the format.

Oh give over.

[doktorb]

Don't forget the Respect party!

[Snide Voice]

Why, everybody else has

[/Snide Voice]

[doktorb]

The death of uniform swing will make Jeremy Vine's graphics even more desperate, I fear

[doktorb]

I suspect that you are correct

[doktorb]

I think by this point its clear that we can just say that 'The LibDems were foolish' and leave it at that...

Providing stable government when the country needed it, not foolish

[doktorb]

Presumably if Lib Dem pressure in 2010 had got a PR referendum, it would have faced exactly the same Tory misrepresentation as the AV referendum did. At least there is still the remote chance that at some future date PR will re-emerge on to the agenda, which would have been prevented if a PR referendum had been lost.

AV was lost because it was too complicated a system and it looked desperately self serving on the part of the LibDems.

AV was lost because of self serving media manipulation and a spineless, bitter, timid Labour Party. There is nothing complicated about AV. There is nothing duplicitous or suspicious about it.

I can never, ever, forgive Labour for their role in killing off constitutional reform.

[doktorb]

This week's YouGov polls:

10 Feb: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
11 Feb: Lab 35 Con 33 UKIP 13 Green 8 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
12 Feb: Lab 33 Con 32 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 4
13 Feb: Lab 34 Con 31 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
15 Feb: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 7 SNP/Plaid 4

There's been no significant movement for months. If we do have leadership debates, the impact is going to be very interesting

[doktorb]

UKIP's parachuting of George Hargreaves into Coventry South is apparently off, and the original candidate has been reinstated:
http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/ukip-scraps-general-election-plan-8670771

Shocked, I am, shocked.