UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Vosem]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

[Vosem]

Putting those numbers into Electoral Calculus gives Lab 315 seats, Con 297, LD 11.

Would Labour be able to cobble together a coalition with minor parties, or would this mean Britain goes back to the polls?

I don't think the Lib Dems will do THAT poorly, but if that number is in the ball park, then I could see a super tiny Labour-Lib Dem coalition government.

326 seats is a one-seat majority, so the first member to resign or die will make it a minority government; and I don't think the Lib Dems will want another coalition after 2010-2015.

[Vosem]

If Scotland had become an independent country, what would the balance left in Parliament have been by party?

I believe the plan was to declare independence in 2016 had the referendum passed, so not only would it not have shifted, Scotland could still have participated in the 2015 election.

[Vosem]

A claim that has been made periodically since... what... the 1960s?

To be fair, the way British politics operates has completely changed since the 1960s.

[Vosem]

The fact that the Conservatives are still hovering at 30% while UKIP is in the mid-teens is amazing.  They're doing what the Canadian PC's couldn't - lose their crazy uncles and still remain the primary center-right party.

For now.

But must insert usual statements of 'oldest political party on Earth', 'they've survived worse', etc.

Aren't they usually considered to descend from Robert Peel, while the American Democrats are handed down from Andrew Jackson? Making the Democrats older. Though one could argue both Jackson and Peel rebranded something existing rather than starting something new.

[Vosem]

All this time I thought UKIP was born out of the Referendum Party.  I didn't know it was more of a JPF/PFJ rivalry instead.

Apparently, in 1997 after being way out-classed by the Referendum Party, UKIP was on the brink of collapse, until the Referendum Party leader Goldsmith died and that party was torn apart, resulting in an influx of support for UKIP and their first real success at the EP elections of 1999 when they won 3 seats. From there, it's been straight up.