UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[tpfkaw]

Here's what the Lib Dem seats would look like on a uniform swing to those percentages; as you can see they're cruising for a bruising (especially as this understates how poorly they're doing, since they didn't have 13.9% of the vote to lose in the first place in many constituencies). However, because Labour is also doing so poorly, they wouldn't stand to benefit.

SNP gains from LD

Gordon (Malcolm Bruce)

Old: LD 13.8 over SNP
New: SNP 14.2 over LD

Argyll and Bute (Alan Reid)

Old: LD 7.6 over Con, 8.9 over Lab
New: SNP 7.3 over Con

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (Danny Alexander)

Old: LD 18.6 over Lab
New: SNP 6.0 over LD

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (John Thurso)

Old: LD 16.8 over Lab
New: SNP 5.8 over LD

Edinburgh West (Mike Crockart)

Old: LD 8.2 over Lab
New: SNP 2.8 over Con, 5.3 over LD, 9.6 over Lab

Con gains from LD

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Michael Moore)

Old: LD 11.6 over Con
New: Con 3.6 over LD

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Robert Smith)

Old: LD 8.1 over Con
New: Con 1.8 over SNP, 7.1 over LD

LD hold

Orkney and Shetland (Alistair Carmichael)

Old: LD 51.3 over Lab
New: LD 23.4 over SNP

Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Charles Kennedy)

Old: LD 37.5 over Lab
New: LD 9.5 over SNP

North East Fife (Menzies Campbell)

Old: LD 22.5 over Con
New: LD 2.1 over SNP, 7.3 over Con

East Dunbartonshire (Jo Swinson)

Old: LD 4.6 over Lab
New: LD 0.2 over SNP, 0.7 over Lab, 8.0 over Con

[tpfkaw]

And the Labour seats (the SNP and Tories would hold all of theirs safely). In some of these a uniform swing has the Lib Dems getting a negative percentage of the vote. Given the referendum results, it's a reasonable hypothesis that the Labour losses have been concentrated in the Glasgow region.

SNP gains from Lab

Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks)

Old: Lab 10.3 over SNP
New: SNP 13.8 over Lab

Falkirk (Eric Joyce)

Old: Lab 15.4 over SNP
New: SNP 8.7 over Lab

Dundee West (Jim McGovern)

Old: Lab 19.6 over SNP
New: SNP 4.5 over Lab

North Ayrshire and Arran (Katy Clark)

Old: Lab 21.5 over SNP
New: SNP 2.6 over Lab

Aberdeen North (Frank Doran)

Old: Lab 22.2 over SNP
New: SNP 1.9 over Lab

Livingston (Graeme Morrice)

Old: Lab 22.6 over SNP
New: SNP 1.5 over Lab

Edinburgh East (Sheila Gilmore)

Old: Lab 23.0 over SNP
New: SNP 1.1 over Lab

Lab holds

Glasgow North East (Willie Bain)

Old: Lab 54.2 over SNP
New: Lab 30.1 over SNP

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown)

Old: Lab 50.2 over SNP
New: Lab 26.1 over SNP

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Tom Clarke)

Old: Lab 49.7 over SNP
New: Lab 25.6 over SNP

Airdrie and Shotts (Pamela Nash)

Old: Lab 34.7 over LD
New: Lab 22.2 over SNP

Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Tom Greatrex)

Old: Lab 44.7 over SNP
New: Lab 20.6 over SNP

Paisley and Renfrewshire South (Douglas Alexander)

Old: Lab 41.5 over SNP
New: Lab 17.4 over SNP

West Dunbartonshire (Gemma Doyle)

Old: Lab 41.2 over SNP
New: Lab 17.1 over SNP

Glasgow North West (John Robertson)

Old: Lab 38.3 over LD
New: Lab 14.7 over SNP

Inverclyde (Iain McKenzie)

Old: Lab 38.5 over SNP
New: Lab 14.4 over SNP

Glasgow East (Margaret Curran)

Old: Lab 36.9 over SNP
New: Lab 12.8 over SNP

Glasgow South West (Ian Davidson)

Old: Lab 36.2 over SNP
New: Lab 12.1 over SNP

Dunfermline and West Fife (Thomas Docherty)

Old: Lab 11.2 over LD
New: Lab 11.6 over SNP

Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Jim Sheridan)

Old: Lab 34.9 over SNP
New: Lab 10.8 over SNP

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Gregg McClymont)

Old: Lab 33.4 over SNP
New: Lab 9.3 over SNP

East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy)

Old: Lab 20.4 over Con
New: Lab 9.1 over Con

Glasgow North (Ann McKechin)

Old: Lab 13.2 over LD
New: Lab 8.5 over SNP

Glasgow South (Tom Harris)

Old: Lab 31.6 over SNP
New: Lab 7.5 over SNP

Glenrothes (Lindsay Roy)

Old: Lab 30.6 over SNP
New: Lab 6.5 over SNP

Edinburgh South West (Alistair Darling)

Old: Lab 18.5 over Con
New: Lab 6.5 over SNP, 7.2 over Con

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Sandra Osborne)

Old: Lab 21.6 over Con
New: Lab 5.0 over SNP

Lanark and Hamilton East

Old: Lab 29.0 over SNP
New: Lab 4.9 over SNP

Central Ayrshire (Brian Donohoe)

Old: Lab 27.3 over Con
New: Lab 4.6 over SNP

East Lothian (Fiona O'Donnell)

Old: Lab 24.9 over Con
New: Lab 4.5 over SNP

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow (Michael McCann)

Old: Lab 28.5 over SNP
New: Lab 4.4 over SNP

Edinburgh North and Leith (Mark Lazarowicz)

Old: Lab 3.7 over LD
New: Lab 3.8 over SNP, 7.6 over LD

Dumfries and Galloway (Russell Brown)

Old: Lab 14.3 over Con
New: Lab 3.0 over Con, 9.5 over SNP

Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Cathy Jamieson)

Old: Lab 26.5 over SNP
New: Lab 2.4 over SNP

Midlothian (David Hamilton)

Old: Lab 26.4 over SNP
New: Lab 2.3 over SNP

Edinburgh South (Ian Murray)

Old: Lab 0.7 over LD
New: Lab 1.8 over Con, 2.9 over SNP, 4.6 over LD

Aberdeen South (Anne Begg)

Old: Lab 8.1 over LD
New: Lab 0.5 over SNP, 4.5 over Con

Glasgow Central (Anas Sarwar)

Old: Lab 24.5 over SNP
New: Lab 0.4 over SNP

Stirling (Anne McGuire)

Old: Lab 17.9 over Con
New: Lab 0.4 over SNP, 6.4 over Con

Linlithgow and East Falkirk (Michael Connarty)

Old: Lab 24.4 over SNP
New: Lab 0.3 over SNP

[tpfkaw]

So on those numbers we can make projections of:

Labour: Between 14 and 42 seats (-27 to +1), 34 on a uniform swing
SNP: Between 8 and 41 seats (+2 to +35), 18 "
Tories: Between 1 and 13 seats (even to +12), 3 "
Lib Dems: Between 1 and 11 seats (-10 to even), 4 "

Labour has more room for error than the SNP but they should neglect Scotland at their peril, since the SNP has the potential to nearly wipe them out there (and become the Scottish Bloc Québécois) if Afleitch's poll numbers are accurate. On the other hand, the SNP might want to manage expectations before the election, so that a weaker-than-expected result doesn't hurt the party too much.

It could also be somewhat of a breakout election for the Scottish Tories if they can consolidate the 6% UKIP voters, run a strong campaign, and get lucky with how the center-left votes split.

The Lib Dems are on the verge of wipeout; at this point, all they can hope for is to get lucky with how the other parties split their votes.

[tpfkaw]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2788816/Bullish-Ukip-swoops-Kent-target.html

Shock poll, UKIP at 25%, Labour and Conservatives both at 31%, Lib Dems at 8%

"Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, Ukip 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71."

[tpfkaw]

Shouldn't it be the Lib Dems who are the oldest political party anyway, since (no matter what date you put it at) the Tories/Conservatives split from the Whigs?

[tpfkaw]

Nick Clegg surged after the debates because he was the 'trendy' option. UKIP is surging now because they're the 'trendy' option.

With completely different demographics, however.

[tpfkaw]

I will remind everyone again that the people who vote - or at least voted - LibDem are not necessarily the people that you all seem to be assuming do/did. Surveys used to show that the most popular newspaper amongst regular LibDem voters was the Daily Mail...

Well, that's because the Daily Mail is the overwhelmingly most popular middle-class newspaper, with left-wing newspapers barely featuring in circulation figures. It doesn't mean that Lib Dem voters weren't more liberal and left-wing than the country as a whole.

I don't see evidence that everyone/all people on this thread are less informed about the party's current or former support base.

Yeah, the Mail currently has 9 times the circulation of the Guardian, so that factoid is pretty meaningless. What matters is the ratio.