UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[joevsimp]

If I had to bet, Conservative majority.  Lib Dems shattered, maybe a seat for UKIP.  Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but maybe another seat for the Greens. 

lib dems will collapse in Norwich South, but I don't think we'll take it, not with the increases that Labour will get

Ukip will quite possibly get five or six seats, Greens won't gain any without the kind of media hype that UKIP have been getting

[joevsimp]

Anyway, notice how the Tories seemed to have a learned a lesson from 1997 - there aren't really any cabinet members in even semi-marginal seats.

Indeed.

The most marginal is Greening in Putney, right?

wouldn't exactly call Putney marginal this time around, isn't the MP for Hove in the cabinet? or are they a junior minister?

[joevsimp]

do either of you (or anyone else for that matter)  think that Plaid are as likely to lose Arfon to Labour as they are to gain Ceredigion from the LibDems?

[joevsimp]

The EP-election was an other bad news for Labour: The OpinionPolls claimed Lab. to be between UKIP and Con. - and suddenly they ended neck-to-neck with the latter!

I believe that Labour are hoping that Labour voters who voted for UKIP will vote for Labour at the general election, while Tory voters will vote for UKIP, clearly having learned absolutely nothing from their issues with the BNP over the last ten years or so

[joevsimp]

they're too far gone to do anything before the election, the best they can do is damage control and rebuild with Farron at the helm

[joevsimp]

Yes it's still very striking how you can go on a half hour drive and instinctively know whether you're in a Labour or Tory area. Inner cities just feel like Labour strongholds. When you go through many leafy suburban towns you can't imagine anything other than a large Tory majority.

Having said that the class divide is quite a bit less stark than when I was growing up in the 70's and it seems to be gradually lessening with time.

then again you get towns like Reading where both seats (east and west) are Tory-held but the centre and south of town feel very old Labour, like this gem of late 80s municipal loony leftism (not meant as an insult btw, just couldn't think of a better way to put it)

[joevsimp]

Even since the UKIP surge in 2013, I have become convinced that the next election will see the following vote shares:

Conservatives 30%
Labour 30%
UKIP 20%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%

According to Electoral Calculus, that would result in a House of Commons with: Labour 317, Conservatives 274, Liberal Democrats 29, SNP 7, Plaid 3, Greens 1, Northern Ireland 18

greens won't get 5%, we never get that much in fptp elections and lost about half our vote in non-target constituencies last time, (ukip won't get 20% though, maybe 10 or 15)

[joevsimp]

no, they did very well in the county council elections in 2013, but their group has imploded since then

[joevsimp]

Constituency polling is basically junk, so, you know. But Itchen is a potential worry for Labour given the tiny majority and the retirement of Denham who, don't forget, has been the Labour candidate there since 1983.

20% lib dem vote though will probably tank labour's way, plus ukip increasing theirs. its seats like that that make Ed Milliband think he can just wait for the tories to lose the election rather than going out and trying to win it

[joevsimp]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

argyll seems to have changes to SNP since you posted that

not sure how convinced I am by tha site, I know Plaid aren't doing too well, but surely they'll nab Ceredigion off of the lib dems?

[joevsimp]

Does the election forecast's website map have a higher resolution? I want to see their projection in London.

its in svg format so you should be able to copy the file location and open it in an image editor that can handle it

can't seem to zoom it enough in the browser for some reason

[joevsimp]

Another forecasting site, possibly trying to be more of a British 538 than the others: http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Their headline forecast appears to be Lab 307, Con 286, LD 25, SNP 8, Plaid 3, Green 1.

They also have a map giving individual seat predictions, based on a model using "raw polling data" (I think this means Ashcroft constituency polls and YouGov crossbreaks as well as headline figures, so I doubt Al will think much of it) rather than simply UNS.  This shows the Lib Dems pretty much being wiped out in their defences against Labour, up to and including Leeds NW, and not doing that well against the Tories either.  I was a bit surprised to see Argyll & Bute blue, but there are four possible winners there and it could be won on a very low vote share.

argyll seems to have changes to SNP since you posted that

Yes, and Leeds NW and Cambridge (but not Bristol W) have gone back to the Lib Dems.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That needs a big swing; it wouldn't surprise me that much if it happened but a model like this is only going to predict it if it is predicting a near total Lib Dem wipeout.

hmm, Lib dems only had a 200 vote majority in 2005 but got a 10% swing in 2010, bizarre, didn't realise that it was so high, not sure plaid can quite manage that now on their current form, plus they'll be after Ynys Mon as well and trying to avoid losing Arfon

[joevsimp]

Last time Farage himself took a brave stand against tradition be standing against Bercow. He was beaten by a man dressed as a dolphin, but still.

That said, I do like the idea of a non-partisan Speaker, but I do feel a bit bad for people living in Buckingham, who have even less influence with their vote than the rest of us plebs.

it works better in Ireland, because they have 3-5 seats per constituency and the speaker (Ceann Comharlie if I've spelled that right is automatically returned on the first count

[joevsimp]

If the polls are still displaying roughly the same picture on May 7th 2015 as they are now then will anyone really bother doing an exit poll?

In 2010 the final polls all had the Lib Dems significantly higher and Labour significantly lower than the exit poll and the final results.

yes,  I remember Election Night Special that year, they spent nearly an hour discussing what might have  caused the exit poll to be so far off until it emerged that it was spot on and the LibDems were actually losing seats.

[joevsimp]

Neil Hamilton has withdrawn from his candidacy for Boston and Skegness UKIP selection.

has he done something or has he just realised that no-one likes him?

[joevsimp]

otherwise the current general election polling would mean a swing of Lib Dem voters directly to Ukip.

What's so absurd about that possibility? Of course a very, very significant percentage of the electorate are not really 'Party X Voters' at all, and then will be people who voted in 2010 who will not do so in 2015 and vice versa...

It's much too large. Half of 2010 Lib Dems have not become Ukip voters, but that is what naive credence of the figures would suggest. As for churn, it doesn't help that 2010 old people were not particularly Lib Dem, nor will 2015 young people be particularly Ukip (unlike similar parties elsewhere in Europe).

Somewhere around 10% seems correct for Lib Dem -> Ukip. But, by the same token, somewhere around 10% seems correct for Labour -> Ukip, too.

UKPR posted this churn graphic based on YouGov's crossbreaks a few weeks ago

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049

[joevsimp]

yet people still think that Gordon Brown should've gone for it in 2007 when he could've won

[joevsimp]

Third, AV would actually have turned the screw on the Lib Dems, as Ukip second preferences would turn the tide in favour of Conservatives in the C/LD contests which characterise most of their seats.

absolutely, just look at Fianna Fail and the Irish Greens in 2011, they were incredibly transfer toxic as they say and ended up losing more seats than their already dismal first preferences would suggest

the Jenkins Report had calculations on the possible effect of AV on the 1997 election and came to the conclusion that Labour would've won a slightly larger majority and the Tories would've ended up below 100 seats and behind the lib Dems

edit: wasn't quite that extreme http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140131031506/http://www.archive.official-documents.co.uk/document/cm40/4090/contents.htm

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[joevsimp]

UKIP have suspended their general secretary. Something to do with candidate selection.

Looks like it was to do with this.

And apparently it's looking like Neil Hamilton may fill the gap it's left as candidate in one of their more winnable seats (South Basildon & East Thurrock).

ffs, he's like a turd that won't flush, that one

[joevsimp]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

no it won't. all our resources in South Yorks are going into Sheffield Central,

[joevsimp]

Reading East, Tory-held marginal that Labour might regain, also on the Greens' list of twelve targets for the future so I'll probably be dragooned into canvassing sometime soon

[joevsimp]

If Clegg wins, it'll be because of Green voters splitting the Labour vote.

The Labour vote in Hallam has been below 21% for the last three decades. Greens may well win former supporters of other parties that Labour would like to take instead, but by that logic, everyone splits the Labour vote.

that is Labour's logic IME

[joevsimp]

what's happened to South Antrim there? not a DUP hold?

and do you not think that enough extra SF voters will turn out in F&ST after the four-vote margin last time?

[joevsimp]

http://may2015.com/category/gqrr/

Fun with the demographic breakdowns in polls.

looks like ashcroft's got his sums wrong again, 1497% of people who voted conservative in 2010 will be doing so next year, which should come in handy in those key marginals

[joevsimp]

What on earth would these 23 others be ? Plaid and Ulster ? Greens ?

Well, in 2010 you had:
<snip>

Seats were:

Sinn Fein 5
DUP    8    
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3   
Alliance 1
Greens 1
Sylvia Hermon (Indie, ex UUP) 1

That is 22 right there.

speaker?