UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[ObserverIE]

It was speculated today that the LibDems might actually gain seats, even if they lose votes overall.

The reasoning behind it: In Tory-LibDem marginals, the Lib->Lab swing is irrelevant. While the LibDems might lose some votes to Labour, the Conservatives will lose even more to UKIP, resulting in LibDem wins.

Any thoughts?

At best, they might make a net gain of seats from the Tories, though I struggle to see seats that they'd take back - Harrogate, Oxford West, Truro? - but of the seats above, the first "red" seat that I'd expect they might hold is probably Caithness.

ToryRampingPoliticalBetting's reliability is another matter entirely.

[ObserverIE]

With regard to the debate about the Lib Dems, my personal feelings are that:

• Any seat with Lab in second: Labour GAIN
• Any seat with Con in second: Lib Dem HOLD

With Ceredigion operating on it's own electoral rules.

I'd expect that all the "red" seats in the first two groups - apart from Caithness and perhaps Bermondsey (we'll see how next year's council elections go in London) - are gone. Beyond that, the student-ish seats (Bristol W, Leeds NW, possibly Hallam) are more vulnerable than they appear but the rest should be held.

Of the "blue" seats, I'd expect any of the ones in the 0-5% group to be at best touch-and-go and a few beyond that (Berwick, Devon North, Southport) might be vulnerable if the incumbent retires.

Have the Lib Dems in Montgomery any chance of recovering from the Opik debacle?

[ObserverIE]

The tragic thing about the Lib Dems is they need to be built into a party of coherent ideology, unlike the loosely defined pre-2010 mess. That means either switching to FDP-style classical liberalism or a progressive social democratic party. Clegg, is broadly sympathetic to the former, but his actions in the coalition seem more inspired by bland centrism. To a degree, Farron is the same - bravely umming and erring through this parliament.

In a way, 2015 could help the Lib Dems lose their dead wood. Whatever happens, their parliamentary nutters - Dave Ward, John Hemmings, Mike Hancock etc. - are dead in the water. Shame that the only two people competent enough to lead the party as a coherent idealogical group - Chris Huhne or David Laws - were dethroned by scandals.

FDP-style classical liberalism is unlikely to win many if any seats under FPTP, least of all the type of seats that the Lib Dems currently hold.

[ObserverIE]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

[ObserverIE]

How do you rate Naomi Long's chances of retaining her seat?

A good deal less than 50:50, thanks to Fleggate and the efforts of Loyalist paramilitaries in cahoots with the two main Unionist parties to get rid of her. It's the one seat in Northern Ireland which is likely to shift next time.

Only possible fly in the ointment would be if TUV were to stand as a fleggier-than-thou spoiler.

Fleggate?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fc5L5p6aYyM

Nationalist proposal to take the Union jack down from city hall was approved by Alliance (largely unionist but non-secterian) in order to give them a majority.

More exactly, a proposal to fly the Union Jack on the fifteen(?) standard days specified in legislation for flying flags over government buildings, as opposed to flying it 365 days a year.

[ObserverIE]

Speculation about a possible 2015 gain for the yellows.

I don't see it to be honest.  I'd expect most anti-Unionist voters in South Belfast to stick with McDonnell in an FPTP election, even if many of them might be quite sympathetic to Lo and Alliance.

Even if it happened (and I generally take Slugger's analyses with a large pinch of salt) the effect of McDonnell voters switching to Lo would most likely be to elect a DUP MP.

[ObserverIE]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

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Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

[ObserverIE]

They thought similarly about DUP -> Alliance votes in Belfast East in 2010. They reckoned it'd elect Ringland for the UUP. That was on a much bigger gap between second place and Alliance.

I don't remember much RW speculation about Ringland getting in, but I do remember that Long was being supported by Dawn Purvis of the PUP, which gave her a credibility in loyalist areas that won't be there next time.

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Slugger spent the year before the 2010 election bigging up UCUNF, to no RW effect. I just don't give Fealty's analyses much credence: there's always too much wishful thinking about the triumph of moderate unionism over nationalism. On the plus side for Slugger, the insufferably tedious Pete Baker doesn't seem to be around anymore as ubiquitous as he was.

I don't know what this has to do with Fealty. It's his blog, but every argument can and should be analysed on its own merits rather than dismissing them because of their source. It's too easy a criticism.

What it has to do with Fealty is the fact that it's his speculation that's forming the basis of this conversation.

And as far as the maths of the situation go, I find it difficult to see unionist voters switching to "an amazing nationalist-immigrant fusion Alliance party candidate" when the DUP are second.

Particularly given that many of these voters would be living in areas like Sandy Row and The Village where considerable, em, "popular", efforts are made to keep out nationalists, immigrants, or indeed any amazing fusion of the two.

McDonnell may be pompous and not a particularly good party leader, but he's not mired in scandal, so I don't see the incentive for SDLP voters to kick him out and run the risk of electing a unionist.

[ObserverIE]

http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2011/Cen2011IrelandNorthernIreland.pdf

Immigrants tend to concentrate in lower-paid service or industrial work. They tend to live in relatively cheap private rented housing.

For demographic reasons, this type of housing tends to be commonest in historically Protestant working-class areas of cities or towns - mainly Belfast, but also towns in a manufacturing/factory farming belt in north Armagh/east Tyrone. (Ironically, quite a lot of this type of housing in these types of area would have been bought up by Southern investors as investment properties during the Tyger years.)

The locals, many of whom have issues with a perception of being "outbred" by others, often tend not to take kindly to the new arrivals.

[ObserverIE]

Sinn Féin will bleed 3k votes from the SDLP without trying too hard. Then Alliance will try to win, as political parties do. They will seek to take chunks of the 2010 McDonnell and Paula Bradshaw votes, two middle-class and liberal bloc relative to the province, not particularly hostile to immigration, not linked to loyalist paramilitaries. Belfast South SDLP people are not really traditional nationalists, as the history and demography of the constituency demonstrate. Is it likely? No. Is it possible? Yes.

Given the most likely outcome of switching from McDonnell to Lo (unless it's on a truly massive scale) will be to elect either a DUP or agreed Unionist candidate, I think it's highly unlikely.

Bradshaw was considerably more personally liberal than her remaining voters in 2010 were likely to be. If they switch, it's more likely to be to the DUP in the hope of electing a Unionist.

[ObserverIE]

The big problem for Labour in Scotland is that the aftermath of the referendum might be a gift that keeps on giving

Such as this charming photo of Dame Anne Begg, MP for Aberdeen South and Dave MacDonald leader of the Scottish wing of the National Front.

What's going on in the pic on the left?

They're both holding Labour "No" material. (Anne Begg is a long-term wheelchair user.)

The photographs on the NF website show McDonald and some other Nazi first standing in front of their own party banner and then moving on to stand in front of a Labour stand and apparently posing as Labour supporters.

[ObserverIE]

Jeremy Browne stepping down in Taunton Deane. Don't think many saw this coming and it's one less candidate in a LD leadership election next year.

I'll be shocked if this isn't a Tory gain.

How could they tell the difference?

[ObserverIE]

I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

[ObserverIE]

I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't even been a leadership challenge. I realize that choosing a new leader won't solve the Liberal-Democrats' problems - but it's not as if things can get much worse for them, right?

Well that's exactly the point. Who'd wanna trigger a leadership challenge, only to come out with 20 seats in May anyway? Best bet for any leadership candidates is to wait until after the election.

Similar thing with Labour in the last parliament.

I remember an "orthodox" Lib Dem on politicalbetting.com (Yellow Submarine) talking after the 2010 election about the Clegg/Orange Book party leadership having a "Project FDP" in mind - the Lib Dems permanently in government as a market-liberal junior partner under some form of PR. That term is looking worryingly prophetic by now.

Well exactly.

That might've worked if the electorate had felt anyway included in the post-election manoeuvrings by the parties, but they didn't. I think the way the Liberal Democrats sort've think they deserve to be in government post-election (even if they do fall from 24% to, say, 8%) is quite offensive to the electorate.

The LibDem result is going to be more of a rejection than 1997 way for the Tories and definitely more than 2010 was for Labour.

My recollection is that the dramatic fall in their support came after the first Osborne budget, when it became obvious to their voters what the leadership had signed up for. (Yellow Submarine, to be fair to him/her, was a "Project FDP" skeptic.)

[ObserverIE]

My Northern Ireland Forecast (working on the assumption of Unity Unionist candidates)



Antrim South (too close to call)

I would expect the DUP to pick up East Belfast and hold on in North Belfast regardless of official pacts, but the other two seats should stay put.

[ObserverIE]

as to Fermanagh I think it will be a straight Independent Unity Unionist vs Sinn Fein candidate with the SDLP tipping it towards the Unionists (as they will realise that a Sinn Fein MP will not have any influence in a very hung parliament)

A SF MP might not have any influence at Westminster but a Unity Unionist MP would - and would exercise it against the interests of SDLP voters. Gildernew to hold on more comfortably than last time.

[ObserverIE]

While the one out tonight from them (and curiously the Sun made less fuss of this, does anyone have any theories as to why?) reads: Labour 34, Con 33, UKIP 14, Green 8, LDem 6

"Nicole, 22, from Bournemouth" was too busy to phone in her analysis?

[ObserverIE]

Who knows? Respect have (already!) fallen apart in Bradford somewhat (for the usual reasons), but the so-called party is rather less important to Galloway's appeal than the loathsome half-genius himself.

Is it too cynical to assume that the biraderi element in the local party, faced with an all-woman shortlist imposed from Head Office, decided to make the choice most likely to give them the chance to choose a favourite son in 2020?

[ObserverIE]

Who knows? Respect have (already!) fallen apart in Bradford somewhat (for the usual reasons), but the so-called party is rather less important to Galloway's appeal than the loathsome half-genius himself.

Is it too cynical to assume that the biraderi element in the local party, faced with an all-woman shortlist imposed from Head Office, decided to make the choice most likely to give them the chance to choose a favourite son in 2020?

Is there any evidence to that effect?

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http://www.asiansunday.co.uk/who-will-rid-bradford-of-the-biraderi-stain/

[ObserverIE]

So we could be looking at quite a few 'Portillo moments'. The Alexanders, Murphy, Kennedy, Clegg, Hughes...

A bit harsh on Kennedy, who has never been a fan of the coalition, to bracket him with Portillo 1997.

[ObserverIE]

The UUP must have a chance of beating Sinn Féin in FST, given the pact, but you'd probably have to make SF slight favourites given that a unity Unionist candidate fell just short last time.

Elliot is the sort of, em, abrasive personality who is more likely to motivate soft SDLP voters to turn up and lend the vote to Gildernew than Rodney Connor would have been in 2010.

[ObserverIE]

But logically thought through and well argued, and sometimes that's the main thing.

Based on local results, I'd have put down Cheltenham and the two Sutton seats as "likely" rather than "lean" (and Twickenham would move in the opposite direction), and I wouldn't be surprised to see them holding Cheadle.

I suspect Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is their best hope in Scotland barring Orkney and Shetland and Kennedy's seat, whereas North Devon strikes me as very vulnerable and Cambridge as unlikely. Portsmouth South? - God alone knows.

I'm trying to think of anywhere where they might sneak a win based on strong local presence and a freak vote split elsewhere - South East Cornwall? Watford? Bosworth? Montgomeryshire (if Lembit Öpik hasn't irretrievably poisoned the well there)?

[ObserverIE]

^ Wouldn't that just annoy the UUP (what's left of it)?

The UUP are just as xenophobic as the DUP, so not really.

[ObserverIE]

Speaking of NI, and I vaguely remember asking this before (and either way have long forgotten the answer), but why are there no ideologically conservative parties on the nationalist side, and no ideologically progressive parties on the unionist side (other than the tiny PUP and the disastrous NI21)?

That depends on how you define ideologically conservative or progressive.

Most parties in Northern Ireland primarily base their appeal on national identity. Economically, most of them are centrist or centre-leftish; public spending makes up a much bigger component of the Northern economy than in just about anywhere else in Europe, and when the pork goes to so many plates, there's not going to be a huge interest in slash-and-burn economics.

SF are notably to the left of most other parties (in part because they're keeping an eye on matters South of the border). The SDLP are ideologically - insofar as the SDLP do ideology - fairly mild social democrats.

On "social" issues, both are within the Irish mainstream of being conservative (the SDLP very much so) on abortion (although there are some pro-choicers within SF) and relaxed to supportive of gay rights and gay marriage. They're not going to run ahead of their voter base. Neither will touch ACLU-style laïcité with a bargepole.

The UUP were until 1985 allied to the British Tory party and contain whatever most of whatever semi-coherent economic right-wingers there are in NI politics. These include the group of bloggers who agitated for the UCUNF pact with the Conservatives at the 2010 elections and whose main legacy was to drive Sylvia Hermon out of the party and thereby remove the UUP's presence in the House of Commons. Their support base is traditionally more middle-class than the DUP's but they're also fond of pork, especially the sort that the middle-classes and security forces benefit from. They're more relaxed about welfare cuts because they believe that welfare mainly benefits "themmuns".

(And the fact that Unionism traditionally allied itself with the British right meant that Nationalism traditionally allied itself against the British right - first with the Liberals until the War of Independence and then with Labour.)

The DUP is a right-populist party with strong religious strains, and again only favour the type of public spending cuts that they believe will disproportionally hit "the other sort". It may contain economic right-wingers but it's not very economically right-wing as such.

As for the PUP, it is first and foremost the front organisation of the UVF; it may mouth vaguely leftish
utterances but they're not the reason why its supporters vote for it.

There's also Alliance, which tends to attract secular left-wingers and ecumenist types, and there are the micro-parties of both right (NI Conservatives, UKIP) and left (PBP, SP) where the economic true believers go.

[ObserverIE]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

I think you can regard that as the Executive Summary of the previous, longer, post.