UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[politicus]

UKIP splits the Tory vote and Labour wins a 30-40 seat majority. Lib Dems reduced to 10-12 seats. Cameron resigns and some right wing nutjob takes over as Tory leader.

Not sure how many seats UKIP would actually get.

[politicus]

Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

The one possibility of a silver-lining I can see for the next election (and by electoral reform, I don't mean worthless sh**te like AV).

Do people on the far-left really want proportional representation though? Seems like an easy way to open the floodgates to hard-right/far right parties.

Not necessarily a bad thing for the far left since it would make it harder to establish a viable Conservative government.

PR is their only chance to influence Labour, they have zero influence on the Labour leadership today.

[politicus]

Hopefully electoral reform ensues.

The one possibility of a silver-lining I can see for the next election (and by electoral reform, I don't mean worthless sh**te like AV).

Do people on the far-left really want proportional representation though? Seems like an easy way to open the floodgates to hard-right/far right parties.

You think we'd wish to stay disenfranchised through worry that opening the voting system might also benefit the far-right? We've already got the governing party trying to appease a hard right party (& a faction within its own ranks), and I think the prevailing consensus only helps to instil the Right's message and increase their support, with them being locked out of parliament no comfort when they're shifting the centre-ground (and the parties hugging it) ever rightwards.

Out of curiosity how much do you think a Labour Left party could get if you had PR? Maybe 12-15%?

I suppose it would be closer to the Scandinavian "Socialist Left" parties than Die Linke in Germany or the French left wing. So undogmatic on economics and emphasis on green issues and pacifism.

[politicus]

Just to add something else...

I suppose it would be closer to the Scandinavian "Socialist Left" parties than Die Linke in Germany or the French left wing. So undogmatic on economics and emphasis on green issues and pacifism.

The harder Left is not exactly green, for the most part.

Okay, so the Arthur Scargill types are still there?

Anyway, I probably presented it the wrong way by calling it "Labour Left". With PR there should be room for a party to the left of Labour,which would not necessarily have to develop from a party split but could also come about with the merger of various smaller groups into an alliance.
 
I just wondered how strong a potential you thought it would have.

EDIT: I tend to have a structural view of party systems were certain niches are - sooner or later - filled. And in a Western European PR system there is going to be a position to the left of the major SD party which will be filled by someone.

[politicus]

There's a lot of unknown knowns. Southport could be held just by virtue of the local Tories collapsing like a souflee in a cupboard.

Seems like a very British place to place a a souflee.

[politicus]

The Labour Party does not do that.

Isn't that just until they do?

Before 1992 no one had ever challenged a sitting SD Chairman in Denmark and everybody thought it would never happen, then a leader proved incapable of getting the party into government and out of nowhere a successful challenge did happen.

[politicus]

Another view...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/07/its-poll-lead-holds-labour-divided-between-those-who-fear-defeat-and-those-who-fear

This raises he question how big a problem it would be to raise the taxes enough to pay for the public sector. Could Miliband "tax the rich" enough or would it mean too much capital flight or problems with his own right wing?

[politicus]

SD parties just don't change their names, as former Norwegian Labour PM Jens Stoltenberg said when a journalist from Aftenposten (The Evening Post) asked him if the name wasn't outdated and ought to be changed now that only a minority of its voters where workers:

"The Labour Party is called the Labour Party, just as Aftenposten is called Aftenposten, even if its published in the morning".

"New" Labour was bad enough. Progressives in a European context would be awful. European parties that call themselves something with Progress or Progressives are generally reactionaries and/or corrupt.

[politicus]

Didn't the Centre Party in Sweden used to be called the Agrarian party or the Farmer's party or something like that? i know that the Moderate Party in Sweden used to be called the Right Party.

I know that in this day an age people think that winning elections is all about new imaginative campaign slogans and flashy websites... but no one really cares about that. People will vote for Labour if they agree with their policies, think they have a competent leadership, and hate the Tories. Calling them the Progressive Party, or the Blueberry Party, or We-Hate-The-Tory-Party Party, would make zero, zilch, nada difference. None what so ever! If any affect, it would be confusing a few pensioners who'd be wondering what happened to the party they were planning to vote for.

Yeah, its a bit ironic this comment was made by a Swedish poster, since all their three historical centre-right parties have changed their names (from ideological or occupational names to wishy-washy names like centre, moderates and peoples party).

Generally centre-right parties are more likely to change their names completely than SDs.

[politicus]

The People's Party have been called the People's Party since it's foundation in 1934 when it's two predecessors merged, and one of those predecessors were called the People's Party even before that, so I'm not sure where Politicus gets the idea that they've changed their name from.
  

Its was a fusion of The Freeminded People's Party (which at least indicates liberalism) and the  Liberal Party of Sweden. It was then unideological wishy-washy from 1934 to 1990 when they added Liberalerna.

[politicus]

These figures show only two seats where LibDem have a higher than 10 pt lead : Orkney and Shetland, of course, and Sheffield Hallam. I would be worried if I were Clegg.

Also, the figures for Buckingham are hilarious, and I didn't know why. I went and learned that the Speaker is uncontested in general elections, which is yet another moronic aspect of tradition in British politics. The thing where an MP is unable to resign and has to be appointed to one of two obscure fake offices of Stewards is another one that I just recently learned about for Clacton. Seriously, why can't the British just implement a real constitution and stop this bullsh**t ? Nobody takes them seriously...

Still, I don't think Plaid Cymru or the SNP will run in Buckingham, so these figures look bizarre.

Implementing a 'real constitution' would make things even more dull than they already are...

Why mess with success? There's no need to muddle through 5 Republics to get it right.

Regarding civil liberties the current situation in the UK is hardly a success. A written constitution sets clearer boundaries on what  the authorities can and cant do.

[politicus]

Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson selected as Tory candidate for Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

I suppose its mandatory to be a Tory with a name like that.

[politicus]

If Scotland had become an independent country, what would the balance left in Parliament have been by party?

I was wondering the same thing.  Would Labour even be capable of winning a majority without Scotland?

Of the 59 Scottish MPs elected in 2009 41 were Labour (1 has since been expelled and is an independent), 11 LibDems, 6 SNP and one Tory. So is just a matter of subtracting the Scottish seats from the current numbers.

The question about whether Labour can win on its own has been asked around a dozen times before, so search for them. There is no consensus about this, but they have done so before.

You get 591 seats (650-59) and 302 Tories (303-1), 217 Labour (257-40) and 45 LibDems (56-11) and of course no SNP.
      

[politicus]

I also am of the opinion that parts of Wales (especially Monmouthshire) would actually fit better in a region also containing areas such as Gloucestershire, Herefordshire and Worcestershire, but that's a topic for another day.

Perhaps, but since you have also previously said that "Wales doesn't have much of a common identity apart from sports" I still wonder, what is your basis for not considering Wales a cultural nation and a country with its own separate identity?

[politicus]

Okay, I am quite familiar the history of Wales, but its just my impression that the Welsh in general very much identify with being Welsh and have a feeling of being distinct from England and one separate country despite the linguistic divide.

[politicus]

Northhumbria, Mercia and Wessex ftw.

(I guess Essex, Sussex and Kent are too small)

[politicus]

Ah I see things that need to be addressed at some point.

Looking forward to that, it would be interesting with your view of those things.

[politicus]

just on farage, when the people of thanet elect him, i really hope to see more of this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4

What is so great about some upper class twit saying that EU president Herman van Rompuy has "the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk"?

Do you think rudeness improves international relations?

[politicus]

If the rise of the UKIP will result in the House of Commons finally being elected by some form of proportional representation, then they will have been a net force for good.

Wow, gross.

The rise of a racist party that makes many feel like unwanted guests in their own country, a party which has trashed even further our political discourse, but HEY, but our votes might be counted in a different way. Great.

You are trivializing this. PR could potentially change both the political process and landscape quite a bit. You could argue that FPTP simply isn't real democracy, because you are forced to either waste your vote or vote for the lesser evil.

[politicus]

And who knows? If Cameron and the Greens get their way, we could see "Lucasmania" after the debates.

If only the Greens were lucky enough to still have Lucas as their leader though. Natalie Bennett is a gift to her opponents.

Yeah, Bennett was a bad choice. The Greens truly chose the wrong person when Lucas stepped down. However Cameron's idea was for Lucas to be invited and not Bennett, for some reason.

Choosing Bennett would be counterproductive if he wants to actually damage Labour.

[politicus]

There's a big difference in lib dem voters between regions. Lib Dem voters in, say, cornwall are very different socially and politically from Lib Dem voters in, say, Sheffield Hallam.

It would be very interesting if one of you Brits could make a short description of the (stereo)typical LibDem voter in each of their strongest areas.
(or give us a link if someone has already done it)

[politicus]

Again, 'a stereotypical LibDem voter' is very different today to what it was pre-Coalition.

They've lost a lot of their 'stereotypes' to Labour, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid it seems.

Its the regional breakdown thats interestig. Who typically votes LibDem in Sheffield, Cornwall, Highlands etc.

[politicus]

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Kennedy?  Lose to whom?  How can an MP who won 52% of the vote in the last election now be considered vulnerable?

In this scenario with a 52% SNP national vote a lot will change. They are simply calculating what will happen with a swing this large. Move 19% from LD to SNP and its 34-33 to the Nats. - and the necessary  LD-NP swing would be even less because half the 15% Labour vote would go SNP.

[politicus]

Jim Murphy MP wins Scottish Labour leadership 56-35-9 against Findlay and Boyack. Dugdale wins deputy leadership.

Murphy and Dugdale won better than their overall result among Labour politicians and ordinary members, while losing the union vote to left-wingers.

Lefties weep, but it seems that most of Scottish Labour did not agree that Miliband's problem is being too right-wing.

Good news for SNP. It will make it hard for Labour to attack them from the left.

[politicus]

Given that it seems Labour's collapse is stronger in their core areas the uniform swing map might be defective. They might hold on in their Glasgow suburban core.

If the collapse is stronger in their core areas, why would that make it more likely for Labour to hold on to them?