Four years from today, who will be.....?

[Insula Dei]

...president of France? Marine le Pen

...president of France? Marine Le Pen

Marine LePen will never be elected President of France.

N.E.V.E.R

I think it is fairly certain she will reach the second round. If her opponent is Sarkozy turnout could get really low and le Pen would be favoured in that scenario.

There'd  be some sort of Union Sacrée against her. If not officially, at least in people's heads.

[TNF]

...president of France? Marine le Pen

...president of France? Marine Le Pen

Marine LePen will never be elected President of France.

N.E.V.E.R

I think it is fairly certain she will reach the second round. If her opponent is Sarkozy turnout could get really low and le Pen would be favoured in that scenario.

Especially if the economy crashes again in the next year or so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't say "never", but she almost certainly won't win in 2017.

[politicus]

I won't say "never", but she almost certainly won't win in 2017.

I would have thought going up against someone as hated as Sarkozy would be her big chance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't say "never", but she almost certainly won't win in 2017.

I would have thought going up against someone as hated as Sarkozy would be her big chance.

Low turnout and possibly even left-wing support could help her do pretty well (perhaps as much as 45%) but the share of people who would never support her is still slightly above 50% at this point. Come 2022, anything will be possible.

[DavidB.]

POTUS: Jeb Bush
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel (or Ursula von der Leyen)
France: Nicolas Sarkozy
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canada: Justin Trudeau
Australia: ALP

[morgieb]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau

[Middle-aged Europe]

There sure is a lot of Hannelore Kraft hype going on here. The thing is, she probably won't even be the SPD's chancellor-candidate. Sigmar Gabriel is the most likely bet. Gabriel probably won't form a coalition with the Left though (neither it is assured that Kraft would for that matter) and the SPD surely won't become stronger than CDU/CSU in parliament.

So, the best the SPD can hope for is becoming junior partner in a Grand coalition again. Although a CDU/Green coalition is certainly also a strong possibility for 2017. Probably not with Merkel though. Scuttblebutt is that she wants out and even had to deny past reports that she plans to retire prior to the 2017 election.

Appointing Ursula van der Leyen as defense minister was also widely interpreted as an attempt to build up a successor, even though von der Leyen has come under criticism for a mediocre performance as head of the defense ministry lately. So vdL is not the shoo-in anymore she was once considered. Thomas de Maizière is another possibility. He's widely regarded as competent, but he's also boring as hell (inoffensive, uncharismatic, centrist technocrat ).

[swl]

Is there anyone within the CDU openly campaigning to succeed Merkel, or are they keeping a low profile for now?

[Talleyrand]

...president of the United States? Jeb Bush
...chancellor of Germany? Ursula von der Leyen
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Boris Johnson
...prime minister of Australia? Julie Bishop
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is there anyone within the CDU openly campaigning to succeed Merkel, ...

Not really. Mostly because Merkel will decide when she retires and she will have a lot to say on who is going to succeed her, pending approval by the CDU's executive committee. Ursula von der Leyen is basically the heir apparent, but in order to keep that position she'll have to do a good job as defense minister (so far, her performance is seen as a mixed bag though). Thomas de Maizière is considered next in line after VdL, but he seems to lack the ambition to actively pursue the office of the Chancellor, so he's more of a backup if nobody else steps in or if the person who steps in is vetoed by one the party's wings.

[Beet]

This thread is depressing.

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support. 

[morgieb]

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support. 

It was already on life support when he made the prediction.

[Mr. Morden]

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

This prediction is only a week old, and is already on life support. 

It was already on life support when he made the prediction.

True.  But it's now more on life support than it was a week ago.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

OK, so it looks like Miliband isn't going to happen.

[Bacon King]

a few longshot bets:

Hillary Clinton
Thomas de Maizière
Marine Le Pen
Ed Milliband
Stephen Harper
Julia Gillard

[morgieb]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Hannelore Kraft
...president of France? Nicholas Sarkozy
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Australia? Bill Shorten
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau

Well there's one wrong.

And at the risk of sounding like Talleyrand, I suspect by 2019, we may have wall-to-wall Conservative governments across all six countries.

Pretty sure Shorten will get Milibanded, now.

[BaconBacon96]

President of the United States: Hillary Clinton
Chancellor of Germany: I really don't know
President of France: Nicolas Sarkozy
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson
Prime Minister of Australia: Malcolm Turnbull
Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

USA: the bum end of a terminally unpopular Scott Walker Presidency.

UK: David Cameron, ready to hand over to Theresa May.

Australia: Whatever ALP weirdo decides to knife Shorten. Maybe plibersek.

Canada: I'm going to go off on a curveball and suggest Thomas Mulcair

France: Alain Juppe. Hopefully Sarko will be in prison.

Germany: Hannelore Kraft

Spain: Pedro Sanchez (tenuously)

Italy: Matteo Renzi

Ireland: Enda Kenny, somehow.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

Oops.

[DavidB.]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott will be re-elected

Oops.

Well, given Australian parties' tradition of ousting leaders, I won't even be surprised if Abbott manages to become party leader again before the next elections...

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Those who predicted Cameron and Trudeau are looking good.  Probably Turnbull too, though that's less certain.

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Those who predicted Cameron and Trudeau are looking good.  Probably Turnbull too, though that's less certain.

Hmmm....

[Antonio the Sixth]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Alain Juppé (please...)
...prime minister of the UK? Is that McDonnell guy talked about as more likely to succeed Corbyn? If so, hopefully him.
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnbull