Four years from today, who will be.....?

[morgieb]

Clinton
Merkel
Hollande
Milliband
Harper
Abbott

Don't really know enough about Germany and France, so they're a little up in the air.

[Czarcasm]

These are basically "what polls show now"; obviously, things will change and these will look hilarious in the actual 2017.

Just like reading through the 2004 threads where John Edwards was cited as the "future of the Democratic Party."

...president of the United States? Joe Biden, D! (but seriously, I get the feeling things are going to change and prevent Christie, Paul, or Clinton from winning their parties' primaries, and c'mon, Biden SNL spoofs would be even better than the Bush II ones.)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel, retained Rösler for CDU/FDP coalition
...president of France? Jean-Francois Cope, UMP
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband, Labour
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper, Conservative
...prime minister of Australia? Heck if I know.

[Qavvavak]

...president of the United States? Ermm... I don't really know, perhaps Hillary Clinton?
...chancellor of Germany? Peer Steinbruck?
...president of France? definitely Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Thomas Mulcair (no way to Justin Trudeau I dont wanna him become PM!)
...prime minister of Australia? either Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thomas de Maizière

Damaged goods due to the ongoing Euro Hawk scandal. Right now, he's struggling to remain defense minister.

...chancellor of Germany? Peer Steinbruck?

Steinbrück just had to fire his spokesman and is busy denying rumours (which are probably true) that his own party chairman thinks of him as a loser. Mitt Romney had a better chance of winning at this point in 2012 than Steinbrück has now.

[Hash]

Who are some up-and-coming CDU or opposition leaders who would make some Chancellors down the road, once Merkel quits?

[Franknburger]

Who are some up-and-coming CDU or opposition leaders who would make some Chancellors down the road, once Merkel quits?

During her first years in office, Merkel has been very effective in side-lining any potential rivals inside the CDU like Lower Saxony PM Wulff, or Hessen PM Koch.  More recently, voters have done that job for her (David McAllister in Lower Saxony, Norbert Röttgen in North-Rhine Westfalia). Ursula von der Leyen, currently Federal Minister of Labour, and daughter of former Lower Saxony PM Ernst Albrecht, has for a long time been high on the list of possible successors, but seems to have been falling out of favour after publicly criticising the CDU's family policy as being too conservative.
There have been quite a number of press articles in Germany about the obvious lack of leadership alternatives to Merkel (and other party seniors like, e.g., Schäuble) within the CDU. As concerns State PMs, among which Chancellors are typically recruited, the CDU has lost most major states (Hessen is likely to follow this autumn), and currently only governs Saarland, Thuringia, Sachsen-Anhalt and Saxony. Saxony PM Stanislaw Tillich would probably have the best chances from that field. There is of course Bavaria and the CSU, but after two CSU candidates (Strauss in 1980, Stoiber in 2002) losing seemingly 'safe' federal elections, I doubt the CDU will give it a third try.

As concerns the SPD, party leader Sigmar Gabriel combines great political talent with the charisma of a sand bag. He could have become candidate for the upcoming election, but denied, so I wonder whether he would run in 2017. Inside the SPD, there are great hopes on North-Rhine Westfalia's PM Hannelore Kraft , but she has repeatedly denied any ambitions for chancellorship. Otherwise, from the field of State PM's, Hamburg Mayor and former party secretary Olaf Scholz might have ambition, potential and networks, provided he wins his next election in Hamburg. Wowereit (Berlin) and Platzeck (Brandenburg) are most likely linked too much to the Berlin-Brandenburg airport mess to have any chances, while most other SPD PMs have not been in office for long enough to be considered for chancellorship.

[Franknburger]

And here is the substitute's benches:



Ronald Pofalla (* 1959), former CDU Secretary General and now Merkel's Chief of Staff.  Kind of the Steinbrück type, has been attacking some CDU colleagues quite rudely, so he might not even be able to shore up enough support within the CDU. In any case, rather a good number two than a frontman, and also a bit old to be the party's hope for the future.


Kristina Schrüder (* 1977), Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Women and Youth. Obviously being built up by Merkel (that Ministry used to be her first Cabinet post as well), but Schröder seems to lack the class that her predecessor, Ursula von der Leyen, undoubtedly possesses. Has not come out with any significant policy proposal during her nearly four years in office.


Manuela Schwesig (* 1974), Deputy Chairwoman of the Federal SPD (one out of five), and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern State Minister of Labour and Social Affairs.  The SPD's answer to Kristina Schroder. Haven't noticed much of her so far, but with a master degree in public finance, she should be able to work beyond the traditional "family, youth & women" focus. In Peer Steinbrück's 'shadow cabinet', she is responsible for reconstruction / development of East Germany.


Andrea Nahles (* 1970), SPD Secretary General since 2009. Strong critic of the Schroder government's social security reforms, with acceptance problems in the general public (too 'left', too 'feminist'). Probably similar to Pofalla - good number two, but no front-woman.


Hubertus Heil (*1972), SPD Secretary General from 2005 to 2009, and now Deputy parliamentary whip. Sigmar Gabriel's protégé, with similar political talent and charisma.

 
Aydan Özoğuz (* 1967), Deputy Chairwoman of the Federal SPD, Bundestag member since 2009, married to Hamburg Senator (State Minister) of Internal Affairs Michael Neumann.  Olaf Scholz's protégé. Quite a long shot, as two of her brothers are being linked to Islamist groups.

[tpfkaw]

...president of the United States? - Rand Paul [/hack]
...chancellor of Germany? - SPD guy/gal
...president of France? - The Sark
...prime minister of the UK? - Seriously: Miliband, non-seriously: Farage
...prime minister of Canada? - Harper
...prime minister of Australia? - Tony Abbott

[Middle-aged Europe]

In all likelihood, Merkel prefers Ursula von der Leyen as her successor.

Then again, she'd already tried to hand von der Leyen the presidency of Germany in 2010 and this was vetoed by the CDU state bosses who wanted a more conventional "CDU-esque" choice (and look how well that turned out ). So it all depends on how much grip Merkel will have over her own party when she retires.

I suppose David McAllister still seems like a strong option provided that he'll enter Merkel's cabinet after the election. So far he plans to run for the European parliament in 2014 though which is more of dead end.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I thought McAllister was the CDU Crownprince?

[TNF]

A bunch of neoliberals, obviously.

And I want to retract my former prediction of Chris Christie. It'll more likely be Scott Walker.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I thought McAllister was the CDU Crownprince?

Only if he wants it to be... and frankly, so far he doesn't seem to have made up his mind.

[Mr. Morden]

a few longshot bets:

Hillary Clinton
Thomas de Maizière
Marine Le Pen
Ed Milliband
Stephen Harper
Julia Gillard

That's looking like quite a longshot right now. 

[Tender Branson]

...president of the United States? - Clinton
...chancellor of Austria? - Faymann
...chancellor of Germany? - Merkel
...president of France? - Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? - Cameron
...prime minister of Canada? - Harper
...prime minister of Australia? - Rudd

[freefair]

Probably
...president of the United States? Chris Christie, narrowly (Republican), will win re-election
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (CDU),comfortbly, and will retire in 4 more years
...president of France? Franciose Hollande (PS), will narrowly win re-election
...prime minister of the UK? Narrowly, David Cameron or whoever succeeds him (Conservative)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper, narrowly (Conservative)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott, about to be defeated or replaced (Liberal)

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? - Rudd

Nope.  Looks like that won't happen. 

Looks like Shorten is the favorite to be the next Labor leader, so he'd presumably then be the favorite to be the PM in four years if Labor wins the next election, but time will tell.

[Platypus]

...president of the United States?

A Republican. Maybe.... Eh, Dunno. None of the men-most-likely.

...chancellor of Germany?

Angela Merkel

...president of France?

Francois Hollande

...prime minister of the UK?

Ed Milliband

...prime minister of Canada?

Dunno. Tend to think Harper will retire soon, so whoever is his protege.

...prime minister of Australia?

Tony Abbott, ugh

[Antonio the Sixth]

*bump*

...prime minister of Australia? - Rudd

Nope.  Looks like that won't happen. 

Who knows? He might lose and retake the ALP leadership 15 times before the 2016 election, and might well win them anyway.

[RogueBeaver]

US President - Republican
Chancellor of Germany: Angela Merkel
President of France: UMP
UK PM: Ed Miliband
Canadian PM: Stephen Harper
Aussie PM: Tony Abbott

[You kip if you want to...]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnball

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

Shorten looking like a decent bet for Australian PM.

If nothing else, I believe the reformed procedure for selecting ALP party leader makes it hard for Shorten to be replaced before the next election.  Whereas I don't think there have been any corresponding reforms on the other side of the aisle, leaving Abbott vulnerable to a coup in the event that things get really bad.

Also, Hollande is looking like a shakier prospect for president of France.

[morgieb]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton (most likely anyway. All the prospective Republicans don't quite seem strong enough right now, the only one who has a real shot is Walker)
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel (or whoever her replacement is in the CDU, they'll probably have the edge in German politics for a long time)
...president of France? Whoever the UMP nominate (that's right, I think Hollande is f[Inks]ed)
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Milliband (won't rule out Cameron though, he's still fairly popular personally IIRC whereas Milliband isn't)
...prime minister of Canada? Stephen Harper (though I suspect Harper might consider giving up the gun. Not convinced on Trudeau jnr. just yet)
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott (unpopular sure, but his majority is pretty big and I don't see enough stomach for a coup given how Labor's second term went)

[MaxQue]

US: Hilary Clinton
Germany: Merkel, but she is retiring at the 2017 election later in the year
France: François Fillon, but I must say thinks are pretty unclear (Copé, Sarkozy, Hollande are possible, Le Pen if things get ugly for PS and UMP explodes since then).
UK: Ed Milibrand
Canada: Justin Trudeau, ugh
Australia: Abbott (but he might be victim of a leadership spill or just lose to Labor in 2016)

I would change 3 things.
France would be Copé.
Australia would be Shorten.
Germany would be Van der Leyden (since Merkel would have retired at 2017 election).

[MATTROSE94]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? David Cameron
...prime minister of Canada? Rob Ford (I wish )
...prime minister of Australia? Tony Abbott

[You kip if you want to...]

...president of the United States? Hillary Clinton
...chancellor of Germany? Angela Merkel
...president of France? Francois Hollande
...prime minister of the UK? Ed Miliband
...prime minister of Canada? Justin Trudeau (eugh)
...prime minister of Australia? Malcolm Turnball