NC State Senate Redistricting

[Miles]

For the past few weeks, I've been working on the NC State Senate. My goal was to draw a reasonably clean map that still favored Democrats. I alluded to this in project in the NC Redistricting thread, but I thought I'd make a separate series for this. I'll have analysis of the individual districts down the line, but here's what the big picture looks like:

State:



Charlotte:



The Triad:



The Triangle:



I'd appreciate any input!

[Miles]

DISTRICT STATISTICS

2008 PRESIDENT


2008 SENATE


2010 SENATE


2012 PRESIDENT


2012 GOVERNOR


2012 LT. GOVERNOR


RACIAL DATA

[windjammer]

You're always doing a great job Miles, congratulations!

[muon2]

There are only two districts with BVAP over 50%. Would that hold up in court?

In any case why not try to draw a fair map?

[Miles]

There are only two districts with BVAP over 50%. Would that hold up in court?

In any case why not try to draw a fair map?

Yes, it has the exact same number of black VAP districts and majority-coalition districts as the 2003 court-drawn map.

Eh, maybe after this 

You're always doing a great job Miles, congratulations!

[Miles]

Just for reference here are some of the actual plans that were considered (with the statistics linked):

This was the enacted plan, drawn by Senator Bon Rucho (R- Mecklenburg):



This plan, "Possible Senate Districts", was submitted by Senator Flloyd McKissick (D- Durham):



Senate Minority Leader Martin Nesbitt, from Asheville, drew this map. It was called "Senate Fair and Legal" which was a pun at Senator Rucho; Rucho always threw around the phrase "fair and legal" but always seemed to leave out the "fair" part when it came to actually drawing maps.



Finally, this was the existing plan used for the 2004-2010 cycles.



At the time it was passed, the existing plan had two majority BVAP districts (one in the northeast and one in Charlotte). Districts 3 had a black-majority of its total population, but was majority-coalition VAP. My map keeps all these districts the same in terms of racial composition.

[muon2]

Interesting. If the GOP plan is around in 2020 and section 5 is still in effect the non-retrogression law would handcuff any Dem plan next time.

[Gass3268]

Do you have any swing/trend maps? All of this has been really great too look over too!

[JerryArkansas]

Great maps Miles, I really hope North Carolina enacts non partisan commissions.

[Miles]

Do you have any swing/trend maps? All of this has been really great too look over too!

Good idea.

'Using the 2008 to 2012 data:

Swing



State Trend



National Trend

[Miles]

I'm a bit late with this, but here's a few words on the individual districts; these are SD's 1- 13.

SD1




Counties: Beaufort, Hyde, Dare, Washingtin, Tyrrell, Currituck, Camdem, Perquimans, Pasquotank

The first district, based in along the northeastern coast, was the seat of the powerful Pro Temp Marc Basnight. Basnight was first elected in 1984 but stepped down in December 2010 due to health issues; just a month before, he rode out the red wave with 56%. Perdue then appointed Stan White, also from Dare County, in his place. Thus, in 2012 this was essentially an open-seat race.

The district swapped around a few counties in redistricting, but nothing major. Still, the Republicans altered it just enough to flip it. Senator Stan White lost by a meager 32 votes to Rep. Bill Cook of Beaufort. Compared to the actual district, I added Washington and Tyrrell counties, which are both small but still heavily D, while trading out mildly D-leaning Gates County. Despite its slight R lean in statewide races, I'm pretty confident that White would have picked up more than 32 votes.
LEAN D

SD2




Counties: Craven, Carteret, Pamlico

This is an R-trending district along the east coast. This was actually pretty solidly D territory until the last decade or so. For instance, Bev Perdue held this seat throughout the 1990's before she ran statewide; she was always reelected to the Senate in landslides. Republicans have since made major inroads here, so the incumbent, Norman Sanderson, should be fine.

Both the R and D proposed plans kept this district intact, so I didn't change it, either.
SAFE R

SD3




Counties: Edgecombe, Martin, Wilson, Nash

When the predecessor to this district was drawn in 2003, it was majority coalition, so I kept it as such. The BVAP is 48.6% while the WVAP is 45.3%. Clark Jenkins, a white Democrat from Edgecombe county who currently represents a black majority seat, should be fine. Also of note, this was of the 10 districts that swung to Obama in 2012.
SAFE D

SD4




Counties: Warren, Frankilin, Halifax, Northampton, Bertie, Hertford, Gates, Chowan

Similar to SD3, I had to maintain a BVAP majority seat; this district is 50.3% BVAP. Likewise, Obama improved here.
SAFE D

SD5




Counties: Pitt, Greene

This is a slightly D seat based in Greenville. Since Dalton would have won here, I think it would normally go D. Senator Don Davis represents a BVAP majority district in this area, but I think he could hold this too.
TILT D

SD6




Counties: Onslow, Jones

SD6 is based in Jacksonville and includes Camp Lejeuene. Like SD2, though Perdue carried this in 2008, its normally Republican. Senate Majority Leader Harry Brown should be very safe.
SAFE R

SD7




Counties: Vance, Granvile, Person, Franklin

The Republicans dismantled the 2003-2010 predecessor to this district. Senator Doug Berger (D) was just left with Franklin county (which is swingy to mildly R) and had to take in heavily R portions of Wake; he lost to now-Senator Chad Barefoot. This version is very similar to the 2003-2010 version and Berger was elected with 52% in 2010, so I think he'd be good going forward.
LEAN D

SD8




Counties: Bladen, Columbus, Brunswick, New Hanover

Bladen and Columbus counties, both heavily D by state standards are connected to most of Wilmington proper. The real contest here would be the D primary; a conservaDem from Columbus or Bladen counties would likely go against a more liberal Wilmington Dem.
SAFE D

SD9




Counties: Brunswick, New Hanover

This takes what ever is left over south of SD8, which consists of pretty inelastically R. Two R incumbents, Tom Goolsby (New Hanover) and Bill Rabon (Brunswick) are double-bunked here. My guess is that Goolsby would win the primary because he's represented more of the district and is more entrenched in the area.  
SAFE R

SD10




Counties: Sampson, Duplin, Pender, New Hanover

Before 2010, the Democrat's majorities were built on seats like this, but with the D support in the east waning, there is only so much wealth to spread around. Compared to the current version, I dropped the red anchor of Johnston County in favor of Pender County and parts of New Hanover. This district has a slight but noticeable R lean in statewide races. Sen. Dewey Hudson (D), lost a similar seat by about 4 points in 2010, so I think Democrats could be competitive here with a Blue Dog.
TILT R

SD11




Counties: Johnston, Nash, Wilson

This is an R vote sink based in Johnston County; it also extends to take in whatever is left (heavily R areas) from Nash and Wilson Counties from SD3. Because this is a sink, Senator Buck Newton, who was an obnoxious proponent of Amendment 1 will be in the clear.
SAFE R

SD12




Counties: Wayne, Lenoir, Duplin

Duplin and Wayne counties were slightly short of the population for their own SD, so I had to add in a strip of Duplin. Like SD10, this has a modest but persistent R tilt. I'm guessing Sen. Louis Pate (R) would try to run here, but he currently holds a safe R sea; he's in his mid-70s and may not have enough fire in the belly to win a swingier seat in a neutral year though. Democrats could win with a Blue Dog.
TOSSUP

SD13




Counties: Robeson, Cumberland

Robeson County, where only 11% of voters are registered Republicans, is the focal point of this district. It also takes in the R parts of eastern Cumberland County, but those votes should be drowned out in Robeson. This district is majority-coalition, as most of the Lumbee tribe is located here. Senator Michael Walters will be very safe.
SAFE D