2016: Rise Again

[Donerail]

A rather short idea, dealing with the future of 2016


Gomez wins Massachusetts! Christie, McAuliffe new Governors.



I'd like to thank the people of this great state! Even a week ago, they wrote off this campaign, but they won't make that mistake again! The voters of Massachusetts have sent a businessman to Washington!

Businessman and Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez won in a shocker against Rep. Ed Markey. Gomez, trailing in the polls until the last week, managed to pull within the MoE and upset Markey by a razor-thin margin at the polls.

What was expected to happen in two other states did. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey was able to win re-election by a margin as wide as himself, while Terry McAuliffe of Virginia, trailing in the polls at some points early on, with a rather large win (for Virginia, at least), after several statements made by his opponent and his opponent's Lieutenant Governor served to destroy their campaign. McAuliffe/Northam is the new governing duo. Additionally, Elizabeth Colbert-Busch is the new US Rep from SC-01.

[NHI]

Looks good!!

[badgate]

[Donerail]

A look at 2014

A glance at the 2014 Senate elections.

Alabama: Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) is running for re-election. He is a Republican in Alabama. Safe R
Alaska: Sen. Mark Begich (D) was expected to face Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell in what would be a key race to determine control of the Senate. That may not happen. Former Governor and former Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin (R) has entered the race (concurrent with Joe Miller's withdrawal and endorsement of Palin) and is facing Treadwell in the primary. Both Palin and Begich are known quantities in the state, and Begich leads in the polling, but national money will be flowing in on both sides (and Treadwell is a much more moderate character), and currently the race is a Toss-Up
Arkansas: Incumbent Mark Pryor (D) is in a bit of trouble, facing Lt. Gov. Mark Darr (R). Pryor is an Evangelical and a moderate, but Republicans are increasingly dominant in this state. At the time, this race is Lean Democratic
Colorado: Incumbent Mark Udall (D) is now facing US Rep. Scott Tipton (R). Udall is reasonably popular in the state and stands to do well against Tipton, but it is still a swing state, so the race is Likely Democratic
Delaware: Facing activist Christine O'Donnell, Senator Chris Coons (D) is looking at an even easier re-election bid than in the 2010 special election. Against such an opponent, this race is nothing but Safe Democratic
Georgia: Oh, Georgia. Although this race could have been so much more interesting (Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich) this current race-to-the-right in the Republican primary between Reps. Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey could end well or badly. For the Democrats, State Senator Jason Carter has announced his candidacy, but bigger names (Gov. Roy Barnes, Sen. Max Cleland, and Rep. John Barrow) all lurk as possible announcees. Currently it's a Toss-up
Hawaii (special): A bloody Democratic primary between incumbent Sen. Brian Schatz and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa could make this race an opportunity for the Republicans. Although not a traditional area of Republican strength, former Rep. Charles Djou has announced his candidacy. With Schatz and Hanabusa concentrating on each other, and with a potential entry by Rep. Ed Case looming as well, this is better for the Republicans than originally thought. Lean Democratic.
Idaho: Idaho, Republicans, incumbent Jim Risch for re-election, nothing to see here. Safe R
Illinois: See Idaho but with Democrats and Dick Durbin. Safe Democratic.
Iowa: Yeah, this'll be a fun one. Social conservatism threatens to rise again in the form of 2010 Lt. Gov. nominee Bob Vander Plaats, who is facing US Rep. Bruce Braley. All in all it looks to be an easy election for Braley, but Vander Plaats can spur high turnout among Evangelicals and can't be written off. Likely Democratic.
Kansas: Another of those Republican incumbent seeking re-election, this time Pat Roberts. Democrats look to endorse the independent candidacy of Ernie Chambers, who is a State Senator who tried to sue God and hates white people. Safe Republican
Kentucky: Unpopular but loaded incumbent Mitch McConnell is facing popular Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), who has managed to largely distance herself from national Democrats and make this a referendum on the unpopular McConnell. Knocking out McConnell would be a coup for the Democrats, and as such big Democratic groups are rushing funds to Grimes, while big Republican/turtle groups are doing the same to help their leader. Toss-up
Louisiana: Incumbent Mary Landrieu faces perhaps not the strongest challenger in Jay Dardenne, but is still the wrong party. She is, however, getting big support from the oil and gas industry. She currently clings to a narrow lead in the polls. Lean Democratic
Maine: Susan Collins, Republican, is facing a primary challenge. Conservatives, such as State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin and Secretary of State Charlie Summers, are increasingly finding Collins too liberal and are mulling challenges. As the primary is undetermined, the current race is Safe Republican with Collins and Lean Democratic without her.
Massachusetts: Can lightning strike twice? MA Republicans are certainly hoping it's possible. Gabriel Gomez is running again. Gomez hasn't been in office long but still remains reasonably popular - however, he is slightly trailing Democratic possibilities Ed Markey and Mo Cowan. It's also possible that he faces a primary himself, with former Governor William Weld rumored to be considering it. Weld, according to the polls, would be a stronger candidate, but whether he will launch a bid is uncertain. At this time, it's a Toss-up.
Michigan: Rep. Gary Peters is running as the Democrat, while the Republicans appear to be coalescing around former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land. Although Michigan is a Democratic state, Land is a strong candidate, and currently this race is Lean Republican
Minnesota: This is great. Seriously great. Incumbent Sen. Al Franken is facing… former US Representative Michele Bachmann. It's like what's going on in Iowa except further north. Yeah, Franken'll be fine. Safe Democratic.
Mississippi: Interesting, interesting. Mississippi could be competitive this cycle. With Cochran retiring, Rep. Alan Nunnelee appears to be destined for the Senate. However, he is facing a surprisingly strong Democratic challenger: Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus. Although the state is heavily Republican, Mabus could make things interesting. Likely Republican.
Montana: Facing US Rep. Steve Daines to try to keep this seat for the Democrats is former Gov. Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer is very popular in Montana and is often mentioned as a potential 2016 presidential candidate. With Daines running, former AG Mike McGrath also has a shot at taking Montana's sole House seat. Likely Democratic
Nebraska: Is this it? Don Stenberg, Nebraska Treasurer and 4-time unsuccessful Senate candidate, is running yet again. It appears as though the Democrats will nominate Chuck Hassebrook to challenge Stenberg. This could in fact be Stenberg's year, and the race is Likely Republican
New Hampshire: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is running again, facing Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas. Shaheen is popular and has a large lead in the polls, and this race is Likely Democratic
New Jersey: Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno is the Republican candidate, while Newark Mayor Cory Booker or Rep. Frank Pallone will be the Democratic candidate. Booker has a large lead over Guadagno and is expected to do well, but after Christie's dominating win Guadagno cannot be discounted. Likely Democratic.
New Mexico: Incumbent Tom Udall looks to keep this state for the Dems, facing former gubernatorial candidate Allen Weh. Udall is popular and is facing a relatively unknown candidate, and this shouldn't be a worry for the Dems. Safe Democratic.
North Carolina: North Carolina Rs are cray. Incumbent Senator Kay Hagan has the good fortune to face either Rep. Renee Ellmers or former Rep. Sue Myrick, both of whom are slightly extreme. North Carolina is shifting Democratic, and Myrick/Ellmers aren't going to swing it back. Likely Democratic.
Oklahoma: Yeah. Oklahoma, Inhofe, Safe Republican.
Oregon: Incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley vs… former State Senator Bruce Starr? This is pretty simple. Safe Democratic.
Rhode Island: Oh, this'll be interesting. Facing incumbent Dem Jack Reed is six-time All Star and 2001 World Series MVP Curt Schilling. Although Reed is popular in Rhode Island, Schilling had over 3000 strikeouts in his career, an impressive feat, and with Rhode Island in the Boston media market Schilling could put up a stiff challenge. Safe Democratic.
South Carolina: Incumbent Lindsey Graham is facing a primary challenge from US Rep. Joe Wilson (running as a conservative alternative to Graham) and a general election challenge from Gov. Jim Hodges. With the chaos of a primary and a fairly strong Democratic candidate, the race is Lean Republican.
SC Special: Yeah, Tim Scott should be fine. Safe Republican.
South Dakota: An interesting election, pitting likely primary winner Kristi Noem, a US Representative, against her predecessor, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. The Democrats look to be able to make this competitive, after this race was considered all but gone after Johnson's retirement. Still Lean Republican.
Tennessee: Yet another Democratic opportunity. Popular Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen has announced his candidacy, while incumbent Sen. Lamar Alexander is facing a strong primary challenge from WWE star Kane. Bredesen is well-known, while Kane is not - if Alexander survives it'll be tougher, but it's Lean Republican.
Texas: Former Houston Mayor Bill White has entered the race against John Cornyn. White is currently polling only three points behind, and this race is actually a Toss-up.
Virginia: Virginians all love Mark Warner, Moderate Hero that he is. Not sure why. Ask Ben. Or Mecha did a timeline on this. Whatever. Safe Democratic.
West Virginia: The other Virginia! Running against popular Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant. Tennant is competent and can run a solid campaign, but Capito is viewed very favorably in this state. Lean Republican.
Wyoming: Yeah, Republican, Wyoming, Mike Enzi, moving on, Safe Republican.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I look forward to seeing the races in Massachusetts and Georgia in particular.

[NHI]

Looks good!! Great update!

[badgate]

Texas: Former Houston Mayor Bill White has entered the race against John Cornyn. White is currently polling only three points behind, and this race is actually a Toss-up.

[JerryArkansas]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

[Donerail]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

He is now.

[Donerail]

A look at 2014: Gubernatorial

A glance at the 2014 gubernatorial elections.

Alabama: This is Alabama, where we speak English. The real question here is who the Republican nominee will be - that will decide the GE. Facing incumbent Gov. Robert Bentley in the primary are two former gubernatorial candidates: businessman and English-speaker Tim James, and Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court and reincarnation of Moses Roy Moore. Still, the seat is Safe R.
Alaska: The race here is incumbent Sean Parnell facing his old opponent, former State Rep. Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz is attempting to win his first statewide election after having lost three in a row. This will probably not be it. Likely Republican.
Arizona: Mayor of Mesa Scott Smith is polling well in the primaries, and is expected to be able to keep this state R against Fred DuVal. Likely Republican.
Arkansas: A battle between two former US representatives. Rep. Mike Ross is facing Rep. Asa Hutchinson. The state has shifted heavily conservative, but Arkansas still has a relatively strong Democratic party, and Mike Ross is the kind of Democrat who could win here. Toss-Up.
California: Jerry Brown is running for re-election, facing… former Treasury official Neel Kashkari? I guess? Who's known by nobody, so since nobody knows how this is gonna work the race is, by necessity, Likely Democratic.
Colorado: John Hickenlooper is running for his second term, facing... former gubernatorial candidate and noted crazy person Tom Tancredo. Safe Democratic.
Connecticut: A ray of hope! CT Republicans have found a not-crazy person to run against a relatively disliked Governor. Rep. Chris Shays is challenging incumbent Dan Malloy, and actually stands a fair chance of victory. Shays is one of those dreaded New England moderates, and is challenging someone who isn't all that popular. Lean Democratic.
Florida: The Once and Future Governor is back! Charlie Crist is challenging incumbent Rick Scott, who is disliked in the state. Crist is an effective fundraiser and stands an excellent chance of knocking out Scott. Lean Democratic.
Georgia: Incumbent Governor Nathan Deal is facing a stiff challenge from Rep. John Barrow. Barrow is a conservative Democrat of the type that can win elections in Georgia. Deal has made headlines for attacking opponents of a segregated prom, and Barrow is trailing closely in the polls. Lean Republican.
Hawaii: Rematch: incumbent Gov. Neil Abercrombie, deeply unpopular, is facing his 2010 opponent, Duke Aiona. Although Hawaii is a Democratic state, Abercrombie is disliked and lots of people are regretting their vote for him in 2010. Toss-up.
Idaho: Butch Otter has an awesome name. That is all. Safe Republican.
Illinois: Quinn is trailing slightly in a primary against Lisa Madigan, who is leading in the polls against Dan Rutherford, but Rutherford makes the race a toss-up if he faces Quinn. Although Quinn could still make a comeback, since Madigan looks likely to win the primary, the race is Likely Democratic.
Iowa: Yeah, all hail Eternal Governor Branstad against whoever State Senator. Safe Republican.
Kansas: Sam Brownback isn't polling too well against 2010 gubernatorial candidate Tom Holland. This is Kansas, but still. Likely Republican.
Maine: Interesting, as always. Independent candidate Eliot Cutler is facing incumbent Gov. Paul LePage and former State Senator Ethan Strimling (the Democrats were expected to field a weaker candidate in order to help Cutler). LePage still leads in the polls, narrowly, but Cutler is putting up a strong fight. Toss-up.
Maryland: An interesting Democratic primary race, and one that could make history. Although Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown leads the polls, he hasn't gotten the headlines: those have gone to County Executive Ken Ulman, who is running a strong campaign, and State Delegate Heather Mizeur, who, if elected, would be the first LGBT person elected Governor. Being Maryland, of course, the main race is in the Democratic primary. Likely Democratic.
Massachusetts: Apparently Massachusetts Moderates are now back in fashion - at least, that's the takeaway from the most recent polling, which shows former cabinet secretary Charles D. Baker, Jr. leading healthcare administrator Donald Berwick in the gubernatorial election. Lean Republican.
Michigan: Snyder-Schauer; the race has tightened and is now tied. Snyder isn't that popular, but is competent enough I guess, and this will be one of the major races of the cycle.  Toss-up.
Minnesota: Minnesota Republicans are sad. Their party chair, Keith Downey, is now running for Governor, because that's all they've got. Yeah, Dayton looks like a lock for re-election.  Safe Democratic.
Nebraska: This is a boring election in a boring solidly Republican state. Auditor Mike Foley is running for the R's nomination and if he wins that he wins the whole thing, so yay for him.  Safe Republican.
Nevada: Sandoval crushes 'Democratic opponent' in all polls.  Safe Republican.
New Hampshire: Hassan leads former Rep. Jeb Bradley by a very comfortable margin.  Safe Democratic.
New Mexico: And Martinez leads Gary King by almost as comfortable a margin.  Safe Republican.
New York: State Senator Greg Ball is attempting to make this a race against incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo. Ball is notable for his support for payroll tax relief and opposition to fracking, the latter of which could allow him to peel off a few Democratic votes. Still, the race is  Likely Democratic.
Ohio: Richard Cordray is running for Governor, but incumbent John Kasich appears to have the edge in polling. Although Kasich opposes collective bargaining, he has significant support, enough for the race to be  Lean Republican.
Oklahoma: Yeah, Oklahoma, Fallin,  Safe Republican.
Oregon: Yeah, Oregon, Kitzhaber,  Safe Democratic.
Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett is seeking re-election despite his low popularity. Corbett, however, leads one of his Democratic challengers, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, though he trails Rep. Allyson Schwartz. Nutter and Schwartz are the two main primary candidates, though which will face Corbett is unknown.  Lean Democratic.
Rhode Island: State Police superintendent Brendan Doherty has entered this chaotic race against nobody's quite sure yet. Kenneth Block is running on the Moderate Party line though. Incumbent Governor Lincoln Chafee, Treasurer Gina Raimondo, and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras are all competing for the Democratic nomination, and as of now it's an extremely close race, and Doherty is a strong candidate. Toss-up.
South Carolina: State Senator Vincent Sheheen clings to a slight lead in the polls against incumbent Governor Nikki Haley, who defeated Sheheen in 2010. Sheheen, however, is running a very local campaign that has put him ahead in the polls.  Toss-up.
South Dakota: US Attorney Brendan Johnson is facing Governor Dennis Daugaard, who is reasonably popular. Johnson will be lucky to break 40%, but with a very local campaign (as seen in the 2012 Senate election to the north) he could have a change. Likely Republican.
Tennessee: Gov. Bill Haslam is facing a strong challenger. Although Tennessee is a Republican state, this challenger is Better Than [He] Used to Be, and this campaign is going to be One of Those Nights; the candidate promises to be a Southern Voice for the people of Tennessee. Indeed, Mr. Tim McGraw of Nashville has announced his bid for Governor. Lean Republican.
Texas: Abbott vs. Perry for the Republican nomination in a competitive race, although one that Perry leads by a few points. Winner faces Democratic candidate Kinky Friedman, notable Jewish cowboy.
Vermont: New vs old Governor - Peter Shumlin is facing former four-term Governor Jim Douglas, perhaps the only Republican who has a shot at unseating Shumlin. Douglas is a powerful candidate and this race could be very competitive for the cycle.  Toss-up.
Wisconsin: Gov. Scott Walker leads all challengers, including the probable Democratic nominee, Mahlon Mitchell, President of the Professional Fire Fighters of Wisconsin.
Wyoming: Wyoming. Matt Mead, Republican, wins.  Safe Republican.

[Donerail]

Race Updates: 2014 Senate

Alaska: With the primary over, it appears that Sen. Begich will be facing Gov. Palin, who won the primary over Treadwell. This will certainly be an interesting election, but Begich is pretty safe now. Bad news for Republicans: this was one of the races they had to win to take control of the Senate. Likely Democratic
Georgia: The Republicans may actually stand to lose during this cycle: Rep. Paul Broun has won the primary. State Senator Jason Carter, a former member of the Peace Corps and grandson of a certain peanut farmer, will be his opponent in the general. Carter is expected to get a lot of national money, and Broun is the dream of an opposition researcher (Allen West for Speaker, federal marriage initiative, Obama wants to establish a Marxist dictatorship, CAIR is evil, global warming is a hoax, somebody's gonna shoot the president, support racism, evolution is a lie... oh, and this family values guy has gone through 4 marriages). Currently it's a Toss-up, but if Carter gets a solid attack in it'll be the Dems' to lose.
Hawaii (special): Schatz has won, but Hanabusa is not happy and has refused to endorse him. This rift in the Democratic party leaves an opportunity for Rep. Charles Djou, who is running a solid campaign and emphasizing his moderate credentials. Lean Democratic, but Djou is gaining in the polls.
Iowa: Vander Plaats is driving hard and is polling a lot better - fine-tuning his message for Iowa voters. He still has a long way to go, but Braley is feeling threatened.. Likely Democratic.
Kentucky: Grimes and McConnell are trading blow after blow, but it's possible that all his money can't help him overcome his underwater approval ratings. Grimes is ahead, though within the margin of error, in recent polling. Toss-up
Louisiana: Landrieu has begun to distance herself from Dardenne and pull away - negative news for Republicans. Lean Democratic
Maine: Someone More Conservative won, and Republicans, yet again, look to be on the verge of blowing what should have been their year. Little-known former State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin won the low-turnout primary by a narrow margin, and now goes on to face an uncertain field. Independent State Senator Richard Woodbury is running and looks to pick up a lot of Democratic support, as well as support from Collins backers, and former Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap is the Democratic candidate. The election is now a Toss-up.
Massachusetts: Just south of Maine, another incumbent Senator has stepped down rather than face a primary. Sen. Gabriel Gomez, elected in a 2013 special election, is not seeking re-election, citing disgust with Washington's culture. The Republican seeking to take his spot is now former Gov. William Weld, a well-liked moderate. Weld's entrance shifts the race back his way.
Lean Republican.
Mississippi: Nunnelee hasn't been a very effective campaigner; Mabus has. This is looking more and more like a possible Democratic pickup - Mabus is the kind of Democrat who can win here, and Nunnelee is about as radical as the personhood amendment. Despite this, this is still Mississippi, and so the race is still Lean Republican.
New Jersey: Although Booker won, Guadagno is putting up a solid campaign for the general. The race is still Likely Democratic.
North Carolina: It's Myrick, and it's Safe Democratic for Hagan.
Rhode Island: Curt Schilling has launched his first ad blitz, featuring Curt Schilling throwing a 98 mph fastball through liberal legislation. Another ad showcases his pitching with his bloody sock during the 2004 ALCS. These ads have a great affect among Red Sox fans. Likely Democratic.
South Carolina: A very battered Graham has survived, but now has former Gov. Hodges to deal with.Lean Republican.
SC Special: Tim Scott has drawn an opponent! That icon of American conservatism, former presidential candidate Stephen Colbert, will be opposing Scott on the Democratic line. Colbert is an icon in South Carolina, and can bring the race down to Likely Republican.
South Dakota: Sandlin is actually leading Noem in the polls by a few points; her local campaigning is paying off. Toss-Up.
Tennessee: Bredesen is popular and a known quantity; so is Alexander. This is a battle of two of Tennessee's political heavyweights, and is attracting lots of money on both sides, and is a Toss-up.
Texas: White has pulled even with Cornyn in the polls; this is nothing but a pure Toss-up.

[PolitiJunkie]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

You love bringing this up; you did so on my timeline as well where I had Darr running instead of Cotton so it could be a Democratic hold. Three things you need to know:

1. Mark Darr has not yet declined to run.
2. Tom Cotton has not yet announced that he is running.
3. The whole point of timelines is that they are alternate history, so obviously there are going to be differences from what's really happening- that's the freaking point!

[JerryArkansas]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

You love bringing this up; you did so on my timeline as well where I had Darr running instead of Cotton so it could be a Democratic hold. Three things you need to know:

1. Mark Darr has not yet declined to run.
2. Tom Cotton has not yet announced that he is running.
3. The whole point of timelines is that they are alternate history, so obviously there are going to be differences from what's really happening- that's the freaking point!

But at the same time, they should be realistic.

[PolitiJunkie]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

You love bringing this up; you did so on my timeline as well where I had Darr running instead of Cotton so it could be a Democratic hold. Three things you need to know:

1. Mark Darr has not yet declined to run.
2. Tom Cotton has not yet announced that he is running.
3. The whole point of timelines is that they are alternate history, so obviously there are going to be differences from what's really happening- that's the freaking point!

But at the same time, they should be realistic.

Yes, but there is nothing unrealistic in the slightest about Mark Darr running for Senate.

[PolitiJunkie]

Darr isn't running in Arkansas, but that is the only prob.

You love bringing this up; you did so on my timeline as well where I had Darr running instead of Cotton so it could be a Democratic hold. Three things you need to know:

1. Mark Darr has not yet declined to run.
2. Tom Cotton has not yet announced that he is running.
3. The whole point of timelines is that they are alternate history, so obviously there are going to be differences from what's really happening- that's the freaking point!

But at the same time, they should be realistic.

Yes, but there is nothing unrealistic in the slightest about Mark Darr running for Senate.

Or Tom Cotton declining to run.

[Donerail]

A look at 2014: Gubernatorial

A glance at the 2014 gubernatorial elections.

Alabama: Roy Moore has succeeded in his primary challenge with a plurality of the vote. Seat's still Safe R.
Alaska: Although Parnell is still personally popular, Palin on the ticket may have a negative effect on his campaign - it'll certainly bring out Alaska Dems. Uncertain how much of an effect, but he's down a few points - still leads though. Lean Republican.
Arkansas: Ross has been running a pretty effective campaign, emphasizing being an Arkansan first and a Democrat a long ways down the list, and playing up his conservative credentials. Race is still a Toss-Up.
Connecticut: And Shays is doing the exact same thing Ross is doing, except moderate credentials instead and talking about his loyalty to the state. Improbably, this race has moved to a Toss-up.
Georgia: Barrow is one of the last of the Deep South's white conservadems, but Deal and his tax proposals aren't well-liked, and Barrow can actually out-conservative him on some issues, moving this race to Toss-up.
Illinois: Triumphing in a split primary among Madigan, Daley, and businessman Chris Kennedy is... Pat Quinn. Disappointingly for him, though, he has survived in order to die - Rutherford now has a fairly solid lead in the polls. Lean Republican.
Maine: Cutler is still popular, LePage is still not, Strimling is still unknown - and isn't campaigning very hard at all; most Dem voters are moving towards Cutler. Lean Independent.
Maryland: What you are witnessing in Maryland could make history. Heather Mizeur has seized the Democratic nomination for Governor and is poised to be the first openly LGBT individual elected to a governorship. Downgraded a bit because homophobes, but it's still a likely victory against some like former Anne Arudel County Executive or whatever. Lean Democratic.
New York: Ball is building a very strange coalition of Republicans and anti-Cuomo liberals, including support from environmentalists. It's a weird, weird coalition, but the race is still Likely Democratic.
Pennsylvania: Schwartz has won a narrow primary, Corbett is still disliked, Lean Democratic.
Rhode Island: With the vote of the True Democrats split among two candidates, Chafee has prevailed with a plurality in the primary and goes on to face Doherty and Block. Toss-up.
South Carolina: Sheheen continues to lead in the polls and is showing signs of pulling away from Haley, but this is still a very conservative state.  Lean Democratic.
Texas: Rick Perry has defeated Abbott marginally in the primary and now goes on to face a Jewish cowboy because Texas politics are awesome. Lean Republican.

[Donerail]

Pre-Election Outlook

2014 Senate elections

Alabama: Sessions is safe. Safe Republican Hold
Alaska: Begich has widened the gap with Palin, and Palin has said lots of things that are stupid as she is wont to do. Likely Democratic Hold
Arkansas: Pryor is doing pretty fine against Darr - still tight, but he should be alright. Lean Democratic Hold
Colorado: Udall is well-liked and is running a pretty solid campaign against a meh opponent. Safe Democratic Hold
Delaware: Yeah O'Donnell's a nut. Safe Democratic Hold
Georgia: A Carter just may be back in power. Rep. Paul Broun has said enough crazy things to fill a book, never mind a 30-second ad. Although the race is still tight because Broun has a R next to his name, it has shifted to Lean Democratic Pickup
Hawaii (special): In the aftermath of a bloody and divisive Democratic primary and a solid campaign by Rep. Charles Djou, this race is looking more and more like one that can be a failure for the Democrats - as this pre-election day prediction won't include tossups, it may be only a tilt, but it's . Lean Republican Pickup.
Idaho: Risch is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Illinois: Durbin is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Iowa: Vander Plaats is, improbably, making this race competitive, slamming Braley for both his pro-choice views and a low rating from the Farm Bureau, seeking to drive up turnout in rural areas against Braley. It's still a Lean Democratic Hold.
Kansas: Roberts is safe. Safe Republican
Kentucky: Democrats look to finally exact their revenge for the fate of Daschle. Grimes is a fairly strong candidate and is running well against the unpopular McConnell. It'll be close, but this is a  Lean Democratic Pickup.
Louisiana: Incumbent Landrieu looks to hold on and survive another term, a difficult feat but one that she appears to be able to pull off. Lean Democratic
Maine: An interesting, interesting race. With Collins out, an independent State Senator is now hoping to make Maine's Senators both independent, and right now appears to be able to do so. Lean Independent Pickup.
Massachusetts: Bill Weld looks to hand Ed Markey his second Senate defeat in as many years, with the right blend of moderation that can get him elected in Massachusetts. Lean Republican Hold.
Michigan: Land has consistently ran ahead of Peters, albeit just by a few points, for the entire campaign, and, with national Democratic interests focused on some other races (like Kentucky), this race is Lean Republican Pickup.
Minnesota: Franken is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Mississippi: Mabus has made this very tight, and is just now starting to get some heavy attention - a Democratic pickup in Mississippi would be a strong signal that the party needs to watch who it nominates. But yeah, Mississippi. Lean Republican Hold.
Montana: Schweitzer is a pretty safe pick and should cruise into this seat. Safe Democratic Hold.
Nebraska: The perpetual loser has become a winner in Nebraska, with Don Stenberg looking to finally, after 4 tries, get into the Senate. Likely Republican Hold.
New Hampshire: Shaheen is popular and has a large lead in the polls, and this race is a Safe Democratic Hold.
New Jersey: Is Guadagno the new Christie? She's narrowed the gap with Booker and is running a credible moderate campaign, much like the strategy Christie has used to win his elections. Lean Democratic Hold.
New Mexico: Same thing as the other Udall. Safe Democratic Hold.
North Carolina: Yeah Myrick says crazy things. Good for Hagan. Safe Democratic Hold.
Oklahoma: Inhofe is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Oregon: Merkley is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Rhode Island: Schilling! The popular Red Sox pitcher is closing and closing the gap with a campaign largely built on support from Sox fans. Lean Democratic Hold.
South Carolina: Hodges is running a solid campaign against an incumbent who isn't entirely well-liked by his fellow party members; Constitution Party candidate Patrick Tyndall could swing this race to the Dems. Lean Republican Pickup.
SC Special: Stephen Colbert has announced his bid as a Democrat - South Carolina's favorite son is challenging Tim Scott. Although Colbert isn't exactly the best ideological fit for the state, he's very popular nationally and is receiving heavy support from Americans For A Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow PAC. Lean Republican Hold.
South Dakota: After Tim Johnson's retirement, this was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Republicans - now, it's another possible failure for them. Former Rep. SHS is facing current Rep. Noem in the race for the office, and is actually leading. Lean Democratic Hold.
Tennessee: Democrats keep shooting for big Republican targets, and so far they seem to be doing pretty well. They have the best possible Democratic candidate for this race, and he's running around even with Alexander in the polls as a popular former Governor; this could be a major victory. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Texas: Bill White is popular, known statewide, and has pulled even with Cornyn. With momentum on his side, this race is Lean Democratic Pickup.
Virginia: Warner is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
West Virginia: Tennant is running a solid campaign, but Capito is also popular. This could be the race where the WV Dems finally lose. Lean Republican Pickup.
Wyoming: Enzi is safe. Safe Republican Hold.

[Donerail]

Pre-Election Outlook

2014 gubernatorial races

Alabama: Moore is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Alaska: Berkowitz - Parnell is still a very tight race, and a little bit of money on both sides can buy a lot of airtime. Long fight to the finish, but right now it's Lean Republican Hold.
Arkansas: Ross is pretty solid vs. Hutchison, doing fairly well - enough to win. Lean Democratic Hold.
California: Brown is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Colorado: Hickenlooper is safe. Lean Democratic.
Connecticut: Shays has run a solid, solid campaign and is the kind of R that can win Connecticut.  Lean Republican Pickup.
Florida: For all of Scott's money, he can not buy this election. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Georgia: Barrow is Georgia. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Hawaii: Aiona is meh, but Abercrombie is actively disliked. Lean Republican Pickup.
Idaho: Otter is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Illinois: Rutherford looks to be a Republican picking off an incumbent in what should be a safe state - and is succeeding. Lean Republican Pickup.
Iowa: Branstad is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Maine: All the Maine Democrats are independents? This state is looking at having two independent Senators and an independent Governor - with Cutler's lead that is certainly possible. Lean Independent Pickup.
Maryland: Mizeur, despite the possibility of a Bradley effect but for LGBT candidates, is leading fairly handily in the polls. Likely Democratic Hold.
Massachusetts: Baker still has a narrow but solid lead, and looks to make this another major victory for Massachusetts Republicans. Lean Republican Pickup.
Michigan: Snyder is just barely staying alive in the polls, but staying alive he is - he leads by 2-3 points. Lean Republican Hold.
Minnesota: Dayton is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Nebraska: Foley is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Nevada: Sandoval is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
New Hampshire: Hassan is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
New Mexico: Martinez is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
New York: Ball is young, charismatic, and is peeling off some liberals, but New York is still New York. Lean Democratic Hold.
Ohio: Kasich is leading in the polls over Cordray. Lean Republican Hold.
Oklahoma: Fallin is safe. Safe Republican Hold.
Oregon: Kitzhaber is safe. Safe Democratic Hold.
Pennsylvania: Corbett is coming back? Coming in narrowly after Schwartz in recent polling but within the MoE, the embattled Pennsylvania governor looks to make a comeback. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Rhode Island: Doherty is a strong candidate - Chafee is not. In a three-way race, Doherty has the edge, with Block and Chafee trailing. Lean Republican Pickup.
South Carolina: Sheheen is running a local issues-oriented campaign, although Haley is still a potent force. Lean Democratic Pickup.
South Dakota: Johnson has made this a race - although he probably won't win, his statewide name recognition is much higher for 4 years later or so. Likely Republican Hold.
Tennessee: McGraw is a very strong candidate - wealthy, universal name recognition, and well-liked by voters, he's a Blue Dog and a good fit for the state. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Texas: In another entertainer-turned-gubernatorial-candidate race, Kinky Friedman has taken a narrow lead over Rick Perry. Lean Democratic Pickup.
Vermont: Shumlin clings to a narrow lead over Douglas - ancestral Republicanism cannot overcome modern liberalism. Lean Democratic Hold.
Wisconsin: Walker still has a stable lead over the Democrat and looks to be a pretty safe bet.  Likely Republican Hold.
Wyoming: Mead is safe. Safe Republican Hold.

[badgate]

KINKY! Hahahaha YES!

[Donerail]

Election Results 2014

Hello, and welcome to CNN's election night coverage for the 2014 elections. As the results are coming in, it's time to look at what's happening in gubernatorial and Senatorial contests nationwide.



In Connecticut, in their gubernatorial election, the results are very good for Republican Chris Shays. Shays, a former Representatives, was one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, though he faced a difficult fight in this Democratic state. This looks like the night's first, though certainly not the last, Republican pickup.

Connecticut Results:
Former Rep. Chris Shays: 51.3%
Gov. Dan Malloy: 47.8%
Others: 0.9%



Delaware's Senate election looks like a lock for Democrats - the Republicans again nominated Christine O'Donnell, who again appears very likely to lose. No big news here.

Delaware Results:
Sen. Chris Coons: 62.9%
Ms. Christine O'Donnell: 36.3%
Others: 0.8%



Georgia's having both their Senate and gubernatorial elections tonight, and both look like a major win for Democrats, who look to put this state in their column two years from now. Rep. John Barrow, a conservative Democrat, is in the lead in the gubernatorial election, while State Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of Jimmy Carter and a bona fide liberal, is marginally ahead in the Senate race. Really good results for Georgia Democrats here.

Georgia Results:
Rep. John Barrow: 51.6%
Gov. Nathan Deal: 47.5%
Others: 0.9%

State Sen. Jason Carter: 49.8%
Rep. Paul Broun: 49.5%
Others: 0.7%



And now Maine - they've gone full-on independent this year. The Democrats aren't that strong in Maine anymore, and seem to be deliberately fielding weak candidates, to help beat Republicans. In the Senate, State Senator Richard Woodbury looks to make this an independent pickup, while attorney Eliot Cutler is leading in the gubernatorial race.

Maine Results
Mr. Eliot Cutler: 39.6%
Gov. Paul LePage: 37.8%
Fmr. State Sen. Ethan Strimling: 20.4%
Others: 2.2%

State Sen. Richard Woodbury: 42.9%
Treasurer Bruce Poliquin: 30.7%
Fmr. Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap: 23.2%
Others: 3.2%



In Maryland, a history-making gubernatorial election has occurred, with State Rep. Heather Mizeur looking to be the first openly LGBT individual elected to a governorship - and with Maryland's Democratic lean appears to have done so pretty decisively.

Maryland Results
State Rep. Heather Mizeur: 54.2%
Harford County Executive David Craig: 43.8%
Others: 2%



Massachusetts is having some of the most interesting results of the night, with a resurgence of the Republican Party in this heavily Democratic state - you've got Charles D. Baker winning the Governorship, and Bill Weld getting into the Senate, major gains for Republicans here.

Massachusetts Results
Fmr. Secretary of Finance Charlie Baker: 50.6%
Fmr. healthcare administrator Donald Berwick: 47.6%
Others: 1.8%

Fmr. Gov. Bill Weld: 51.9%
Rep. Ed Markey: 46.9%
Others: 1.2%



New Hampshire, just to the north of Massachusetts and far more competitive in presidential elections, has had a relatively uninteresting cycle compared to the state directly to the south. In both races, the Democratic incumbents are fairly safe.

New Hampshire Results
Gov. Maggie Hassan: 56.6%
Fmr. Rep. Jed Bradley: 42.5%
Others: 0.9%

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: 53.7%
Mayor Ted Gatsas: 43.2%
Others: 3.1%



A very tight race in New Jersey. Incumbent Sen. Cory Booker is facing a strong challenge from Lt. Gov. Kim Guadango, who looks like she just might eke this out. Although this wasn't expected to be close until a few weeks ago, Guadango has run a good campaign and Booker hasn't been a hyper-active campaigner (believing himself to be safe, he hasn't poured in as much money) - this election certainly looked headed to a recount.

New Jersey Results
Lt. Gov. Kim Guadango: 49.3%
Sen. Cory Booker: 49.2%
Others: 1.5%



It appears as though the hype surrounding the New York gubernatorial race possibly being close wasn't really justified at all. Although Cuomo is underperforming his 2010 performance against Ball, he's still doing pretty well and will be re-elected.

New York Results
Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 55.3%
State Sen. Greg Ball: 43%
Others: 1.7%



Kay Hagan faced Sue Myrick - certainly not the strongest Republican candidate. She's performed pretty well over the course of the campaign, highlighting some of Myrick's more extreme positions while playing up her own moderate credentials.

North Carolina Results
Sen. Kay Hagan: 55.6%
Rep. Sue Myrick: 42.8%
Others: 1.5%



This has been a pretty easy election for John Kasich, leading Democrat Richard Cordray in the polls for the course of the campaign, the Republicans look to hold Ohio, and possibly make some further inroads into the Rust Belt. Kasich is a pretty big Republican player so there was some investment to make sure he was safe, but his prospects have been good from the start and not much was really needed.

Ohio Results
Gov. John Kasich: 56.2%
Fmr. Attorney General Richard Cordray: 43.6%
Others: 0.2%



In a significantly closer election, another Rust Belt Republican looks to hang on to his seat. Gov. Tom Corbett is just barely clinging to an electoral lead, but it's there, and he leads Schwartz by enough to win.

Pennsylvania Results
Gov. Tom Corbett: 50.3%
Rep. Allyson Schwartz: 49.7%



But perhaps that Republican resurgence isn't limited to just Massachusetts. In Rhode Island, incumbent Senator Jack Reed is facing former Red Sox ace Curt Schilling in what has turned into a hard-fought race, largely due to the pitcher's popularity among baseball fans. But the real race is for Governor - incumbent Lincoln Chafee (D) was polling slightly behind Republican Brendan Doherty and Moderate Ken Block.

Rhode Island Results
Fmr. State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty: 46.1%
Gov. Lincoln Chafee: 43.6%
Mr. Kenneth Block: 9.6%

Sen. Jack Reed: 56.9%
MVP Curt Schilling: 41.2%
Others: 2%



And now we go to South Carolina, where both of the state's Senate seats are up for election, as is the governor. Democrats look to do well here, running a couple of local-oriented campaigns attempting to retake lost ground, while ignoring one of the seats to focus on the two others. Lot of big money flowing in here, though, means that a recount could be necessary here as well as in New Jersey.

South Carolina Results
State Sen. Vincent Shaheen: 53.7%
Gov. Nikki Haley: 45.6%
Others: 0.8%

Fmr. Gov. Jim Hodges: 51.9%
Sen. Lindsey Graham: 47.4%
Others: 0.7%

Sen. Tim Scott: 49.9%
The Rev. Sir Dr. Stephen T. Colbert, D.F.A.: 49.8%
Others: 0.3%



In Vermont, we have a contest of new vs old - incumbent Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin faces former Governor Jim Douglas, with both being popular figures. However, Vermont's newfound Democratic lean appears to be able to carry the day, with Douglas' veto of a same-sex marriage bill in 2009 being a major campaign issue.

Vermont Results
Gov. Peter Shumlin: 56.3%
Fmr. Gov. Jim Douglas: 41.1%
Others: 2.2%



And for the final update of this cycle, we look to West Virginia, a state of significant Democratic strength on a local and state level but one that is very Republican nationally. Popular Rep. Shelley Moore Capito has been locked in a tight race against Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and the results have been bouncing back and forth all night.

West Virginia Results
Secretary of State Natalie Tennant: 49.3%
Rep. Shelley Moore Capito: 48.8%
Others: 1.9%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Lot of close ones. Hoping that Booker is beat in NJ, and that Colbert wins in SC.

[Donerail]

House Update

And now, an update in the US House so far.

Democrats are in the lead, marginally, in four crucial seats: McIntyre in North Carolina, Shea-Porter in New Hampshire, and Murphy and Garcia in Florida. They also lead in New Hampshire's other Congressional District, Nick Rahall's district in West Virginia looks good for him as well.

Republicans, however, are set to hold Benishek, Gibson, Joyce, Walorski, and Grimm's seats in the House.

Republicans look likely to pick up Georgia's 12th district with Rep. Lee Anderson, since the district has been vacated by John Barrow, and Massachusetts' 6th district, where Richard Tisei leads John Tierney, boosted by Weld and Baker in winning there. Additionally, Elizabeth Esty of Connecticut trails her Republican opponent, since Republicans persuaded former Governor Jodi Rell to take a shot at running. In New York, major disfunction on the part of the Democrats there has led to Democrats Tim Bishop, Sean Maloney, and Bill Owens (all of whom represent districts Cook PVI has as leaning Republican) running behind their Republican opponents, as is Dan Maffei. David Cicilline, threatened by low approval numbers, has fallen to the Mayor of Woonsocket, Leo Fontaine.

For Democrats, happy news comes from the state of Florida, where Republican incumbents Dan Webster, Steve Southerland, and Vern Buchanan appear to have been defeated, and Bill Young has finally retired, so three seats there for Val Demings, Gwen Graham, and Charlie Justice. Rigell of Virginia has lost to Glenn Nye, too, and former Senator Carte Goodwin looks to pick up an open seat in West Virginia. Former Rep. Ben Chandler has retaken his seat in Kentucky, his good fortunes boosted by the Senate race. In a stroke of luck as well, weakened by a strong primary challenge, embattled incumbent Scott DesJarlais has fallen in the heavily conservative 4th District of Tennessee, beaten by State Sen. Eric Stewart. State Sen. Gene Jeffress made it uncomfortably close for Tom Cotton in Arkansas too, though Cotton survived, barely.

Overall results so far: EVEN in the House.

[badgate]

Lot of close ones. Hoping that Booker is beat in NJ, and that Colbert wins in SC.

I think those were the results, not polls

[Donerail]

Lot of close ones. Hoping that Booker is beat in NJ, and that Colbert wins in SC.

I think those were the results, not polls

They are the results, but a few of them will be going to recounts, including Booker and Colbert certainly, maybe Carter, maybe Tennant.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Lot of close ones. Hoping that Booker is beat in NJ, and that Colbert wins in SC.

I think those were the results, not polls

They are the results, but a few of them will be going to recounts, including Booker, Colbert, maybe Carter, maybe Tennant.

I hope Booker loses, but Colbert, Carter and Tennant pull it out.