European Elections 2014 (France)

[Hash]

We had a similar separate thread for France's EP elections in 2009 (because France is so cool), so I figured we might have one again.

To kick it off, here's a new Ifop poll which is rather amusing:
FN 21%
UMP 21%
PS 21%
FG 9%
EELV 7.5%
MoDem 7%
UDI 6.5%
DLR 3%
NPA 2%
Others 2%

[DC Al Fine]

How does that translate in terms of the French constituencies?

[Antonio the Sixth]

FN 21%
UMP 21%
PS 21%
Others 2%

Oh, that's nice.

[Peter the Lefty]

Too bad that EELV has fallen so badly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Too bad that EELV has fallen so badly.

They fully deserve it.

[You kip if you want to...]

The PS would still make gains on those numbers.

[Zanas]

So are we settled on one single constituency yet ?

[joevsimp]

Too bad that EELV has fallen so badly.

They fully deserve it.

What's Dany done this time?

[MaxQue]

Too bad that EELV has fallen so badly.

They fully deserve it.

What's Dany done this time?

He left, at the last time I heard of him.

[Zanas]

The only sane thing he's done in years...

[Hash]

So are we settled on one single constituency yet ?

Uh, no? I thought I had mentioned in the other thread back in March that the PS had nixed the EELV/PRG proposal to switch back to the national constituency.

[Diouf]

New YouGov poll:

UMP 19 %
FN 18 %
PS 15 %
FdG 15 %
MoDem 8 %
EELV 7 %
UDI 5 %

Very high FdG support compared to 2009 and to most other polls. PS even below 2009 result. And as most other polls show, EELV far below 2009 result. Supposedly, FdG has picked up most of those voters.

[Zanas]

This is clearly an outlier. And I'm an FdG activist : I would so much want to believe those figures ! But they are just waaayyyyy out of touch.

[big bad fab]

So far:

HARRIS for LCP-Assemblée Nationale (22-24 May 2013, sample: 1279):
UMP 23
PS 21
FN 18
EELV 10
FG 8
UDI 8
MoDem 6
LO-NPA 2
DLR 1
others 3

IFOP for Valeurs Actuelles (29-31 May 2013, sample: 1869):
UMP 21
PS 21
FN 21
FG 9
EELV 7.5
MoDem 7
UDI 6.5
DLR 3
NPA 2
others 2

YouGov for i-Télé and Huffington Post (7-12 June 2013, sample: 1012):
UMP 19
FN 18
PS 15
FG 15
MoDem 8
EELV 7
UDI 5
NPA 2
others right: 6
others left: 5

At least, with such an arrival from YouGov, LH2 and CSA will feel a bit less depressed: they won't be the worst pollsters in France for some time...

[Hash]

I had no clue that YouGov had crossed the Channel and invaded the continent. Besides the obvious outlier on the FG's number, the silly thing is the inclusion of a vague 'other right' and 'other left' option which is silly. Barring anything unforeseen, besides DLR, no 'other right' list will be of any relevance and I can't see an 'other left' list of any kind winning up to 5%.

[big bad fab]

I had no clue that YouGov had crossed the Channel and invaded the continent. Besides the obvious outlier on the FG's number, the silly thing is the inclusion of a vague 'other right' and 'other left' option which is silly. Barring anything unforeseen, besides DLR, no 'other right' list will be of any relevance and I can't see an 'other left' list of any kind winning up to 5%.

"Others" was with an "s"... but still... you're right, it's complete trash.

They have polled popularity ratings since last October, something like that.
I don't know who is their owner: maybe some media group that has grown in France and has imported YouGov, too.
Well, they are not so bad in Britain: hope they will better in France; but the US aren't a good precedent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Welcome back, Fab!

So how do you feel about Hollande's successful attempt to destroy traditional family and murder innocent children?

[big bad fab]

Welcome back, Fab!

So how do you feel about Hollande's successful attempt to destroy traditional family and murder innocent children?

I'll try to be here from time to time, but my added value will probably be low.

Besides my own lasting problems, this is another cause for being depressed.
I haven't demonstrated every time but still: 24 October, 17 November, 13 January, 24 March
I've got the big flags, the sweat-shirts, some stickers, a scarf,...
But I failed to be in Rennes on 2 February and 5 May and, what is more, in Paris on 26 May
Who said only the left knew how to demonstrate ?

Of course, no "unofficial" demonstration or action from me. I'm a pure legitimist.
I'm sad the movement is now divided and that the moderate conservatives won't be able to grasp the media attention. Medias will be too happy to inists only on those stupid guys from Le Printemps Français or even further on the right.

Anyway, ready to oppose PMA and GPA, now

But let's not pollute this thread....


My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fab, I'm very relieved to know you're not one of the f**king assholes who caused me to be stuck in traffic on my way from the airport to home!

[big bad fab]

My prediction:
the left will survive the local elections (by winning Marseilles and keeping Toulouse, Reims, Rouen, Caen, Strasbourg, Paris, and maybe losing only Metz and Amiens) but will be crushed by the FN, the FG and EELV in the European elections.
But not by the UMP, which won't be able to do well in these elections, as usual.
Ayrault's term will end just after the European elections, if Hollande knows well his Mitterrand-like scenario. Then, enters Aubry or Valls.

Well, Bartolone agrees with me this morning in Le Figaro
BTW, depending on the European elections results, depending on where the former socialist votes will go (FG, EELV or FN) and depending on the level of the socialist defeat, Ayrault will be replaced by Valls (if the FN is really high), Aubry (if EELV is strong) or Bartolone (if Mélenchon comes back.
Yeah, Bartolone is also a possibility.

[FredLindq]

Sondages[modifier]

Récapitulatif national des intentions de vote
Listes Harris
Interactive
24/05/2013
 Ifop
31/05/2013 YouGov
12/06/2013 CSA
12/06/2013
 Lutte ouvrière 2 % non testé  1%
 NPA  2 % 2 % 3%
 Front de gauche 8 % 9 % 15 % 9%
 PS 21 % 21 % 15 % 19%
 EELV 10 % 7,5 % 7 % 8%
 MoDem 6 % 7 % 8 % 7%
 UDI 8 % 6,5 % 5 % 6%
 UMP 23 % 21 % 19 % 23%
 DLR 2 % 3 %  1%
 FN 18 % 21 % 18 % 20%
 Autres 3 % 2 % 11 % 3%
 Personnes interrogées 1279 1869 1012 4118

Might FN become the largest party?
Why is not Libertas (MPF and CPNT) polling better?
Is DLR more like EFD than EPP?

[MaxQue]

Why is not Libertas (MPF and CPNT) polling better?

Libertas was a one-time electoral alliance.
Since then,

CPNT is barely distinguable from UMP,
MPF is much weaker since a couple of years. It doesn't really exist outside of Vendée.

Yes, DLR is gaullist, it fits better with EFD and EPP, since it's euroseptic.

[Zanas]

Yes, FN might be the largest party of this election. Still think UMP eke out a narrow win though for the time being.

[FredLindq]

Will UDI rellay stand? How much will UMP loose from this? Might these vote bee thrown away in som regions? Any potential alliances between different parties i.e. LO and NPA, MpF and DlR, UDI and Modem?!

[Zanas]

You can forget an alliance between LO and NPA this time around. UDI and Modem is out out of the question too. There's really nobody that would ally with DLR. MPF, or what's left of it, will throw their meager forces behind the UMP, probably will demand one eligible slot in the West constituency.

UDI might seek an alliance with UMP, but seeing UMP's current state of dereliction, it's doubtful. However, UDI would probably not reach the "fictional threshold" of 6 to 9% to have a seat, except maybe in Île de France.

And you have to keep in mind that nearly nobody votes on EP elections, we're expecting some kind of 30-35 % turnout, so old people are over-represented, and old people tend to be faithful UMP voters. There is also a core of old PCF voters that maintain a constant not-so-bad score for the PCF, FG nowadays. I'm not even sure that FN will do so good, because a lot of the horrible dumbasses that would be able to vote for them won't even be bothered to go vote for the EP, or won't even be aware there is such an election.