European Elections 2014 (France)

[Zanas]

How likely is it that Le Pen will one day become president?

I'd say an 8% chance as it is now. Not likely at all.

I hope you're right, but I'm really worried.

The possibility that she could get, even if elected president, a parliamentary majority is even more remote. The main question remaining, would she play by the democratic rules if elected president...

[swl]

I would also say that it is not likely at all, maybe also between 5 and 10%.
Her chances of winning in 2017 are 0% in my opinion, we will either have Hollande or the UMP candidate. Le Pen accessing the secound round is likely but she would be defeated by a large margin (not 82-12 this time, but still something like 70-30).

It is difficult to predict what could happen in 2022 since a lot will happen in the economy, in European politics and French politics by then. For example, I am not sure the UMP would survive a new defeat in 2017.

On a different topic, what do you think of the turnout in the next elections? I have the feeling that the declining trend will be reversed because for the first time people realize that European politics do matter. The media and the French politicians have never talked so much about the EU and I think the turnout will be higher in 2009. Even the FN who was until now considering these elections as non relevant is now taking them seriously and is really entering into European politics, with the EFA.
I find it somehow ironic to see eurosceptics across Europe adopting the rules of an institution they are supposed to despise.

I also think that many of the FN supporters are deluded. They genuinely thought that they could win in 2012, and they still genuinely think that they will win several new cities this year in the municipal elections, that they will arrive first in the European elections and win the presidential election in 2017. I suspect that some of the new voters will return to disillusion and abstention after some time.

[Zanas]

On a different topic, what do you think of the turnout in the next elections? I have the feeling that the declining trend will be reversed because for the first time people realize that European politics do matter. The media and the French politicians have never talked so much about the EU and I think the turnout will be higher in 2009. Even the FN who was until now considering these elections as non relevant is now taking them seriously and is really entering into European politics, with the EFA.

Sorry, but I don't know where you get this idea... FN only considers the upcoming EP election relevant because they believe they can end first and send a message, which is possible, but not very likely.

I think on the contrary that turnout will keep on dropping, as nobody sees what the f[inks] the EP has to do with their lives. I'm betting on 33-35%.

New poll : OpinionWay (very pro-UMP, but still, it's the most realistic we got in a few months, except for NPA, way too high (2-2.5% tops) and EELV also too high (maybe 7%, not much more) :

UMP   22   22
PS   16   13
EELV    9   6
Modem-UDI   12   8
FG   9   5
FN   20   17
NPA   4   0
DLR   3   0

Second figure is my projection in seats with my super-duper table.

[FredLindq]

The sum is 71?! Should it not be 73?

[FredLindq]

The sum is 71?! Should it not be 73?

[Diouf]

The sum should be 74, but I believe this is because the three Outre-Mer seats are not included. There are probably few, if any, opinion polls of those three seats.

[Zanas]

The sum should be 74, but I believe this is because the three Outre-Mer seats are not included. There are probably few, if any, opinion polls of those three seats.

Diouf is on spot. I didn't include the 3 overseas seats. They will probably fall the same way they did in 2009 (1 PS-ish, 1 UMP-ish, 1 FG-ish).

What's this?

http://www.nouvelledonne.fr/

It's a new political party, founded by a "left-wing" economist, Pierre Larrouturou, who clearly has a hard time staying in one party. He left the PS for EELV in 2009, then surprisingly came back in the 2012 PS congress with a motion with the late Stéphane Hessel. His grudges against his parties seem to have always been lack of consideration for his ideas and lack of offer of properly high posts...

His new party claims something as 5,000 members, I would guess they really are 1-2,000 and will quickly fade away to a few hundreds as quite a number of French "new parties" do eventually. Except if they somehow manage to be the EP election's surprise, because they want to run in each constituency.

[MaxQue]

Well, Nouvelle Donne has 1 MP and 2 MEPs, all defections.

[Zanas]

Well, Nouvelle Donne has 1 MP and 2 MEPs, all defections.

I've known of parties who had more office-holders than members, literally...

[MaxQue]

Well, Nouvelle Donne has 1 MP and 2 MEPs, all defections.

I've known of parties who had more office-holders than members, literally...

That's not possible, as office-holders are, by definition, members.

[Zanas]

Well, Nouvelle Donne has 1 MP and 2 MEPs, all defections.

I've known of parties who had more office-holders than members, literally...

That's not possible, as office-holders are, by definition, members.

I mean elected people who claim they are members of said party, but really aren't. But I'll admit it's not common.

[Zanas]

FINALLY, we have something to get our teeth into ! The underpolling in France is too damn high ! ^__^

We have a poll for the Southeast constituency of the EP election. That's not much, but from it we can conjecture what a national result would look like. First the poll itself :

    Sondage OpinionWay pour Marianne :
    FN : 26
    UMP : 25
    PS : 15
    FDG : 9
    EELV : 9
    UDI/Modem : 8
    DLR : 3
    NPA : 2
    Other : 3

Seats :

FN : 4
UMP : 4
PS : 2
FG : 1
EELV : 1
UDI-Modem : 1 (Modem, in that case)

Whence we can conjecture the following national picture :

UMP 23,3% (23)
PS 16% (13)
EELV 9% (6)
Modem-UDI 8,9% (6)
FG 9,2% (6)
FN 20,3 % (17)
NPA 2,3% (0)
DLR 2,7% (0)

It would be coherent with the latest poll, with the UDI-Modem falling a bit, NPA and DLR more realistic, and EELV confirming their relatively good showing, considering.

[Colbert]

difference between 2014 and 2009 :

    FN : 26 (+17,5)
    UMP : 25 (-4,5)
    PS : 15 (+0,5)
    FDG : 9 (+3)
    EELV : 9 (-9,5)
    UDI/Modem : 8 (+0,5)
    DLR : 3 (+1)
    NPA : 2 (-2,5)
    Other : 3 (-6)

[Zanas]

difference between 2014 and 2009 :

    FN : 26 (+17,5)
    UMP : 25 (-4,5)
    PS : 15 (+0,5)
    FDG : 9 (+3)
    EELV : 9 (-9,5)
    UDI/Modem : 8 (+0,5)
    DLR : 3 (+1)
    NPA : 2 (-2,5)
    Other : 3 (-6)

Which doesn't mean that battalions of EELV voters have switched to the FN of course. Now, with this picture, propose a global transfer pattern for all parties. You have two hours.

[Colbert]

IMO, most of EELV goes to PS, a minority to UMP,  a little of PS goes to FN, the 4% of de villiers goes to FN, and a lot of "sonstige" goes to FN

[Zanas]

It's getting nearer. OpinionWay again, who seems to be the only pollster bothering to poll this :

Sondage OpinionWay pour le Nouvel économiste réalisé du 7 au 11 mars :
UMP : 22
FN : 21
PS : 17
FG : 9
UDI/Modem : 9
EELV : 7
DLR : 4
NPA : 3
LO : 1
FV (Boutin) : 1
ND (Laroutourou) : 1
EC (Lepage) : 1
Autres : 4

Again, DLR and NPA seem too high, the rest seems correct.

And projection in seats nationally :

UMP   22   21
PS   17   14
EELV   7   4
Modem-UDI   9   6
FG   9   6
FN   21   20
NPA   4   0
DLR   3   0

[Zanas]

"Sondage Le Figaro - OpinionWay" March 31st 2014, just after municipales runoff, just before the reshuffle.

UMP 22
FN 20
PS 18
Alternative UDI-MoDem 12
Front de Gauche 9
EELV 7
DLR 3
Nouvelle Donne 2
NPA 1
LO 1
Alliance écologiste indépendante 1
Nous Citoyens 1
Other 3
No intention stated 17%

I don't even know what "Nous citoyens" is. Nouvelle Donne has been mentioned earlier here or elsewhere.

And now how that translates into seats :
UMP 23
PS 14
EELV 4
Modem-UDI 8
FG 5
FN 17
NPA 0
DLR 0

A mean of these two latest and nearly simultaneous polls gives this :

UMP   23   23
FN   21   17
PS   18,5   14
Modem-UDI   10   8
EELV   8,5   5
FG   8,5   4
DLR   3,25   0
NPA   1   0

[swl]

I think on the contrary that turnout will keep on dropping, as nobody sees what the f[inks] the EP has to do with their lives. I'm betting on 33-35%.

I am not surprised by the result, and I am quite optimistic for the European elections in the future. For the first time, the media actually explained how the EU works and what the EP does. During the evening on TV and yesterday on the newspapers they talked about the results in the other countries. It's the first time this kind of thing happens in France.
And I think there is a lot of room for improvement (for example with a televised debate dubbed in French among the Commission President candidates).

[Hash]

If somebody cares, I've made some maps of the result by canton (for the parties which won seats + Nouvelle Donne), using data mapped using Geoclip

FN:


UMP:


PS:


UDI-MD:


EELV:


FG:


Abstention:


FN vote change 2012-4:


Nouvelle Donne:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting!