Huntsman/Jindal vs Cuomo/Klobuchar

[Incipimus iterum]

Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT)/ Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA)
 vs
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)/ Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Discuss with maps

[Mister Mets]

I think it would be a major win for Huntsman.

He's one of the most electable Republicans, while Cuomo is a fairly generic Democrat, as far as electoral strength is concerned.

Huntsman would be able to argue unity, while Cuomo's best claim would be that another term of Democrats in the White House is more important.

Klobuchar would help with some female voters, but it probably won't be enough.

Jindal would help with the conservative voters who see Huntsman as an idealist. Plus, he's good for rebranding the party (young, blazingly smart brown guy.)

Safe D (119 EV): Vermont, New York, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware

Likely D (73 EV): Washington, Oregon, Most of Maine, Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey

Lean D (17 EV): Michigan, Maine's second congressional district

Democratic leaning Toss-Up (16 EV): New Mexico, Wisconsin

Republican leaning Toss-Up (35 EV): New Hampshire, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Nevada

Lean R (71 EV): Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado

Likely R (37 EV): Arizona, Missouri, The most liberal congressional district in Nebraska, North Carolina,

Safe R (167 EV): South Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee,  Louisiana, Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia,

Half the time, Huntsman would win with 305 electoral votes.

[badgate]

I agree. Huntsman looks good on paper, so good that I would possibly support him if the Democrats nominated someone truly awful. In a field like 2012, someone who looks that good on paper would have to be an awfully uncharismatic candidate to not break through. Huntsman never broke through. I'm not crazy about Cuomo either but he would probably win. Klobuchar may help with some women voters but her hawkishness on privacy would still make the base lukewarm towards her.

For all Jindal's talk about Republicans not being the stupid party, he got pretty stupid himself in 2012, and he's a stupid choice.


Safe D (144 EV): Vermont, Maine PV, Maine 1, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., California, Washington, Hawai'i

Likely D (52 EV): Maine 2, New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon

Lean D (45 EV): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado

Democratic leaning Toss-Up (29 EV): New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Virginia

Republican leaning Toss-Up (41 EV): Florida, Iowa, Nevada

Lean R (18 EV): Ohio

Likely R (37 EV): Arizona, Missouri, The most liberal congressional district in Nebraska, North Carolina,

Safe R (169 EV): South Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee,  Louisiana, Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia,

Governor Andrew Cuomo / Senator Amy Klobuchar - 273
Frmr. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr. / Governor Bobby Jindal - 265

[PolitiJunkie]

I think it would be a major win for Cuomo.

He's one of the most electable Democrats, while Huntsman is a fairly generic moderate Republican, as far as electoral strength is concerned especially with Huntsman having been out of an elected office for so long.

Cuomo would be able to argue bipartisan unity with a record in New York to boast it, while Huntsman would argue its simply the Republican's turn in the White House.

Klobuchar would help excite female and independent voters and would help lock down the Midwest.

Jindal would help some with conservative voters unhappy with Huntsman's moderate streak, but it probably wouldn't be enough to excite the base; plus his record as Governor and favourability would keep him held back with voters in general.

Safe D (185 EV): Vermont, New York, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Washington, Oregon, Maine, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey

Likely D (58 EV): Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maine's 2nd Congressional District

Lean D (42 EV): Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado

Democratic leaning Toss-Up (18 EV): Ohio

Republican leaning Toss-Up (44 EV): Florida, North Carolina

Lean R (22 EV): Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

Likely R (107 EV): Montana, Texas, Georgia, Indiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota

Safe R (62 EV): South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Louisiana

Half the time, Cuomo would win with 303 electoral votes.

HAHAHAHA that was phenomenal. Mr. Mets seriously needs to relax with his "ZOMGGG 2016 IZ A PUBLICAN YEAAAARRRRRZZZ" and putting states like Pennsylvania and Colorado as "Lean R" in any matchup, disregarding candidate strength, national mood, and vastly changed demographics in favor of petty trends and a bizarre expectation of republicans recovering Bush's 04 map. Thanks for this.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Huntsman is a crappy campaigner and Jindal's stock has bottomed out this year. Without even commenting on the absurdity of Huntsman making it out of a Republican primary, the Democrats would have a field day with Jindal's record and his exorcism episode.

[Mister Mets]

I agree. Huntsman looks good on paper, so good that I would possibly support him if the Democrats nominated someone truly awful. In a field like 2012, someone who looks that good on paper would have to be an awfully uncharismatic candidate to not break through. Huntsman never broke through. I'm not crazy about Cuomo either but he would probably win. Klobuchar may help with some women voters but her hawkishness on privacy would still make the base lukewarm towards her.

For all Jindal's talk about Republicans not being the stupid party, he got pretty stupid himself in 2012, and he's a stupid choice.


Safe D (144 EV): Vermont, Maine PV, Maine 1, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., California, Washington, Hawai'i

Likely D (52 EV): Maine 2, New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon

Lean D (45 EV): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado

Democratic leaning Toss-Up (29 EV): New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Virginia

Republican leaning Toss-Up (41 EV): Florida, Iowa, Nevada

Lean R (18 EV): Ohio

Likely R (37 EV): Arizona, Missouri, The most liberal congressional district in Nebraska, North Carolina,

Safe R (169 EV): South Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Kentucky, Tennessee,  Louisiana, Alaska, North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia,

Governor Andrew Cuomo / Senator Amy Klobuchar - 273
Frmr. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr. / Governor Bobby Jindal - 265

Huntsman had several major problems in the primary.

He was a Mormon businessman who needed to win New Hampshire in a race in which the frontrunner was a Mormon businessman from the big state next to New Hampshire.

There was the impression he didn't really like the base. This makes the activists less likely to back him in the primary.

Neither is insurmountable in 2016. Presuming he can figure out a way to get past Christie.

Jindal's approval rating took a hit, although presumably in any scenario in which he's the choice for Veep, he has been able to recover. Some Governors are able to pull that off. Some aren't.

I think it would be a major win for Cuomo.

He's one of the most electable Democrats, while Huntsman is a fairly generic moderate Republican, as far as electoral strength is concerned especially with Huntsman having been out of an elected office for so long.

Cuomo would be able to argue bipartisan unity with a record in New York to boast it, while Huntsman would argue its simply the Republican's turn in the White House.

Klobuchar would help excite female and independent voters and would help lock down the Midwest.

Jindal would help some with conservative voters unhappy with Huntsman's moderate streak, but it probably wouldn't be enough to excite the base; plus his record as Governor and favourability would keep him held back with voters in general.

Safe D (185 EV): Vermont, New York, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Hawaii, DC, Maryland, Delaware, Washington, Oregon, Maine, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey

Likely D (58 EV): Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maine's 2nd Congressional District

Lean D (42 EV): Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado

Democratic leaning Toss-Up (18 EV): Ohio

Republican leaning Toss-Up (44 EV): Florida, North Carolina

Lean R (22 EV): Arizona, Missouri, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District

Likely R (107 EV): Montana, Texas, Georgia, Indiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota

Safe R (62 EV): South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, Kansas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Louisiana

Half the time, Cuomo would win with 303 electoral votes.

Funny.

Cuomo would be a blue state Governor who worked in the Clinton administration. So I don't think he would be able to convince swing voters he's the moderate as effectively as the Republican who took a job in the Obama administration. Cuomo's work with the Republican controlled State Senate will be a plus in the GE, but he'll be best known for liberal accomplishments on gun control and gay marriage.

I don't think Cuomo is one of the most electable Democrats. He's middle of the road. Hillary Clinton, Mark Warner, John Hickenlooper and Brian Schweitzer would probably run a few points ahead.

Generic Moderate Republicans haven't done too badly. McCain won every state in which Bush's approval rating was above 35 percent. He lost by seven in one of the worst cycles for an incumbent party in a long time. Romney (who ran to the right of his record as Governor) lost by four to a charismatic incumbent.

I get that the vast majority of the 2012 voters will support the same party in 2016, so ultimately the speculation is over how a small percentage of the population will vote. But there are some shifts, and these patterns do favor Republican candidates unlikely to scare the middle.

Nixon won the popular vote by 23 points. Carter wins the next cycle by two. Reagan wins the next cycle by ten.

Reagan won 1984 by 18 percent. Bush won in 1988, but the margin was down to just under 8 percent. Then Clinton wins by 5.5 percent, although that election's unusual due to the presence of Perot.

Clinton wins 1996 by 8.5 percent. Gore wins the popular vote by half a percent in the next election.

Bush wins reelection by two percent. His party's nominee loses by seven percent the next time around.