MI-PPP: Paul 18% Bush 16% Christie 15% Ryan 12% Rubio 11% Cruz 7% Santorum 6%

[Mr. Morden]

PPP GOP primary poll of Michigan:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MI_610.pdf

Paul 18%
Bush 16%
Christie 15%
Ryan 12%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 7%
Santorum 6%
Jindal 4%
Martinez 0%

[Mr. Morden]

I figured Bush or Ryan would be winning here.

I haven't seen any particular evidence to indicate that Ryan has a regional advantage in the Midwest.  He's leading in Wisconsin, but that's it.

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among....

moderates: Christie
somewhat conservative: Bush
very conservative: Paul
men: Paul
women: Paul
age 18-45: Paul
age 46-65: Bush/Christie tie
age 65+: Bush

[Mr. Morden]

A little surprised that Paul is leading MI. Interesting that Rubio is trailing Jeb, given Jeb has been out of office since early 2007, hardly in the media as opposed to Rubio.

Bush still has higher name recognition than Rubio, according to all the national favorability polls.  In most polls, Rubio trails Bush, Christie, Paul, and Ryan on name recognition.  Though of course, he should be able to make up the gap if he actually runs.