New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, & Wisconsin

[PolitiJunkie]

The 2014 gubernatorial elections look promising for the Democrats. Democrats have the opportunity to pick up the Governorship in many blue and purple states in which Republicans were elected due to the Tea Party Wave of 2010, some of which are unpopular now.

Backtracking to 2013, Virginia looks like a promising Democratic pickup. For our purposes, let's count Lincoln Chafee as a Democrat, because he aligns with the Democrats on most issues now, and there is little chance of a Republican gaining the RI Governorship in 2014 (the three major possibilities are Chafee winning reelection as an independent, Chafee winning reelection as a Democrat, or a Democratic candidate defeating independent Chafee). If McAuliffe wins VA in 2013, that would bring the gubernatorial breakdown to 21 Democrats and 29 Republicans.

Maine, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan all look very promising for the Democrats in 2014, with the last two looking to be near Democratic locks. If the Democrats were to win these four races, that would make the breakdown 25-25, an even split.

Now, that does not account for some intangibles. There is the off chance that Democrats could pick up in Arizona and Georgia; despite both states being red, in each state, either the GOP field (Arizona) or the incumbent (Georgia) looks weak. Those are both Lean R races now, but not GOP locks. There is also the potential for Republican pickups in Connecticut (unpopular Democratic governor barely elected in 2010), Massachusetts (outgoing Democratic governor; GOP field looks stronger than Dem field, and one possible candidate, Scott Brown, is very popular in the state), and Arkansas (term-limited Democrat with strong candidates on both sides). There is also Illinois, where Pat Quinn is highly unpopular. If Quinn were to be renominated, the race would either be toss-up or Lean R depending on the Republican candidate, but there is a high chance that Bill Daley (already declared) or Lisa Madigan (hasn't said anything) could defeat Quinn in the Democratic Primary, in which case the race would Lean D (with Daley) or be Safe D (with Madigan).


However, there are some Republican Governors elected to blue or purple states that are doing quite well and have found popularity in their state. These Governors are Susana Martinez in blue New Mexico, Terry Branstad in light blue Iowa, Brian Sandoval in light blue Nevada, John Kasich in purple Ohio, and Scott Walker in light blue Wisconsin. To me, Walker, Martinez, and Sandoval look completely safe. In Ohio and Iowa, the races once seemed like toss-ups to me- the possibility of the ousted Governors or another popular Democrat defeating these Republicans seemed high- but now, Branstad and Kasich are also starting to look safe.

So, my question, after all that analysis, is:

Will the 2014 gubernatorial races in Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and New Mexico be competitive?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cutler who would have been an Indy senator had Collins retired is gonna cost Dems Maine. If a top tier candidate runs against walker, it will be competitive. Feingold is gonna pass and take on vulnerable Johnson. Madigan, she should of declared before Daley did. Now daley has the edge with support from Rahm. Should opt for senate. Ark is toast and Deal and Haley are slam dunks. 23d-27gop.

[PolitiJunkie]

Cutler who would have been an Indy senator had Collins retired is gonna cost Dems Maine. If a top tier candidate runs against walker, it will be competitive. Feingold is gonna pass and take on vulnerable Johnson. Madigan, she should of declared before Daley did. Now daley has the edge with support from Rahm. Should opt for senate. Ark is toast and Deal and Haley are slam dunks. 23d-27gop.

So you are saying Democrats pick up only Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, and Republicans pick up Arkansas? That would equal out to 23 D/27 R.

The Maine situation is unfortunate. LePage is losing every single two-way race with a Democrat, but he is winning every single three-way race with Cutler and a Democrat. Perhaps the Democrats won't field a candidate (or they will field a very weak one) and they can support Cutler so he can win.

[illegaloperation]

I don't think you can be that certain.

Lincoln Chafee is officially a Democrat.

Assuming that Virginia is a Democrat pickup in 2013 (which is not certain at all) and that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Maine, and Florida are Democrat pickup in 2014, that still leave 24 Democrat to 26 Republican.

Arkansas governor, Mike Beebee, is term limited and that seat will be extremely hard to hold on to unless the Democrat can find another Mike Beebe in a closet somewhere.

[publicunofficial]

New Mexico and Nevada will be competitive if Sandoval or Martinez do anything to break their moderate image.

Iowa might get competitive if Branstad retires.

Wisconsin won't be competitive unless someone of actual merit runs against Walker.

Kasich is safe barring a major screw-up.

[tmthforu94]

I expect Sandoval and Martinez to be easily elected, possibly even reaching 60%. Kasich will probably end up with around 55%, which is good for Ohio. Walker will end up with a little over 50%, which makes it seem close, but I think Wisconsin is so divided on him that his ceiling and floor are almost interchangeable.

[pbrower2a]

Walker does OK when he avoids controversy. He backs a strong anti-abortion bill and again becomes a polarizing figure.

[tpfkaw]

If Chafee actually gets nominated by the RI Dems (big if), it's a near certain Republican pickup.  He's the most unpopular governor since Bob Taft.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Michael Steele and Hick are game changers as well as Rhode Island. Although Steele and RI wouldn't bother me safe prez states.

[NerdyBohemian]

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Are we talking about the same RI? Rhode Island is certainly loyal to the Democratic Party, but it is far from liberal. Chafee is trying to run the state as a liberal and is being crucified for it. When he runs in the Democratic primary he's going to get a challenge from the right via Gina Raimondo, our treasurer.

[PolitiJunkie]

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Are we talking about the same RI? Rhode Island is certainly loyal to the Democratic Party, but it is far from liberal. Chafee is trying to run the state as a liberal and is being crucified for it. When he runs in the Democratic primary he's going to get a challenge from the right via Gina Raimondo, our treasurer.

Yes. I understand all that. And I know RI has had many successful Republican Governors. And I know how unpopular Chafee is. All I'm saying is that under the specific Rhode Island circumstances of 2014, it is unlikely that a Republican will become Governor. Most likely, Chafee will lose the Democratic primary to Raimondo, who will win the election.

[NerdyBohemian]

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Are we talking about the same RI? Rhode Island is certainly loyal to the Democratic Party, but it is far from liberal. Chafee is trying to run the state as a liberal and is being crucified for it. When he runs in the Democratic primary he's going to get a challenge from the right via Gina Raimondo, our treasurer.

Yes. I understand all that. And I know RI has had many successful Republican Governors. And I know how unpopular Chafee is. All I'm saying is that under the specific Rhode Island circumstances of 2014, it is unlikely that a Republican will become Governor. Most likely, Chafee will lose the Democratic primary to Raimondo, who will win the election.

I agree that if Raimondo enters the primary she will win and will go on to win the general election. If that's the case, I'm not sure who I will vote for in the gubernatorial race.

[Gass3268]

Walker does OK when he avoids controversy. He backs a strong anti-abortion bill and again becomes a polarizing figure.

Also Wisconsin's jobs numbers are awful. If the Democrats could get a business person to run, a liberal Ron Johnson so to speak, that could attack Walker on jobs and women's rights, we could have a competitive race.   

[Czarcasm]

Scott Walker isn't as unpopular in Wisconsin as intra-Democratic dialogue might lead one to believe--- his campaign base is active and aggressive, while the Democratic list of potential candidates is broad, with limited name recognition and no clear frontrunner. Furthermore, Walker'll assuredly get external assistance from out-of-state donors and endorsers, as the recall has kept him in the occassional national spotlight long enough to be considered a potential Presidential candidate, despite having made no personal statements indicative of such a candidacy.

Branstad has begun fundraising, and as far as I'm concerned is likely to pursue a sixth term. The overwhelming support of corporate farming will carry him to victory-- ag runs all in Iowa; Branstad's familiar with this rule and has stood by the industry in controversial circumstance, and all while maintaining ≈50% approval. In fact, I think the most damaging circumstance for Branstad will be a lengthy and expensive primary challenge from Bob Vander Plaats or another Tea Party conservative; if such a circumstance plays out for too long, there's potential for a Democratic pickup, even in spite of the fact that Bruce Braley, Kevin McCarthy, Tom Vilsack, and other familiar favorites are all seeking other offices or declined to run.