Ottawa South provincial by-election

[DC Al Fine]

Grenier calls Ottawa South "Strong Liberal"

[Hatman 🍁]

Grenier calls Ottawa South "Strong Liberal"

Heh.

No comment.

[DL]

Forum has a poll of 690 people in Ottawa South that has the PCs leading with 37% to OLP at 34% and the NDP at 22%....that's actually a very high NDP number in that riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum has a poll of 690 people in Ottawa South that has the PCs leading with 37% to OLP at 34% and the NDP at 22%....that's actually a very high NDP number in that riding.

Oh good, I can finally comment on a public poll

Those numbers are very good for the NDP And I must re-iterate my "heh" at Eric Grenier.

I do know with the close race at hand, the Liberals are going to be particularly nasty and go after us. They have been quite notorious for that in past elections. Especially if they believe we are 22%.

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that the Liberals have a huge machine here, and that might be worth a few extra points. 

[RogueBeaver]

Probably stays Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Probably stays Liberal.

Yeah, I think so.  The Tories don't have a well known candidate. (Neither do the Liberals for that matter, no matter what anyone says).  This is just how things stand pre-campaign. Just you wait.

I'm almost afraid of what the Liberals are going to do to our campaign. Stolen signs might not even be the beginning of it. :S

[DL]

The more the Liberals have to fight like dogs to hold Ottawa South the more it takes away from their efforts in London West and Windsor-Tecumseth...by my reckoning Ottawa South is normally one of the Ontario NDP's weaker ridings - a riding where the NDP vote typically runs about 10 points behind the provincial popular vote...so 22 percent is a very good sign. Its worth noting that the federal Liberals have just 11 seats in Ontario and one of them is Ottawa South  - so if the Liberals have to fight hard here it means they are in "save the furniture" mode.

[lilTommy]

The more the Liberals have to fight like dogs to hold Ottawa South the more it takes away from their efforts in London West and Windsor-Tecumseth...by my reckoning Ottawa South is normally one of the Ontario NDP's weaker ridings - a riding where the NDP vote typically runs about 10 points behind the provincial popular vote...so 22 percent is a very good sign. Its worth noting that the federal Liberals have just 11 seats in Ontario and one of them is Ottawa South  - so if the Liberals have to fight hard here it means they are in "save the furniture" mode.

To be honest, i think the Liberals have given up on Windsor-Tecumseh. I think we can almost all agree that they won't put the resources into Windsor-Tecumseh that they would have otherwise. I don't even know if they have a candidate in place and the NDP have had one for months, and a very strong one at that.

London West i think is still in play for all three parties, but with the most recent poll putting this as a PC-NDP fight, the Liberals might just throw ALL of their resources in Ottawa South. I think we saw this in Kitchener-Waterloo, when they saw the writing on the wall they threw everything at Vaughan.
The NDP ran a pretty slim campaign there and still matched their general election vote; I expect the party to put up more of a campaign in Ottawa South then Vaughan

[adma]

Although that Ottawa South poll looks more like what I would have expected a few months ago, i.e. back before Wynne rehabilitated the Liberal brand and drove Horwath back to a "normal" low-mid-20s range. 
But I do agree w/some assessments that the Liberals in OS have been artificially boosted by the McGuinty brand; that is, the seat isn't *that* much different from more Tory-leaning neighbours--and the fact that Dalton's struggled to crest the 50% threshold in recent elections may reflect the fact.  (In fact, the seat had a solidly Tory history pre-1987, provincially speaking -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_South_(provincial_electoral_district) )

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember that before the 1990s, the Tories were the centrist party, and the Liberals were the right wing party in Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

Remember that before the 1990s, the Tories were the centrist party, and the Liberals were the right wing party in Ontario.

Sounds like NS today

[DL]

According to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_South_%28provincial_electoral_district%29 back in the 70s and 80s and in 1990, the NDP would routinely get 25% to as much as 32% in Ottawa South

[Hatman 🍁]

According to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_South_%28provincial_electoral_district%29 back in the 70s and 80s and in 1990, the NDP would routinely get 25% to as much as 32% in Ottawa South

Yes, because the riding consisted of the Glebe and Old Ottawa South, two very left wing neighbourhoods. However, since 1999, the riding has been entirely southeast of the Rideau River.

[adma]

Then again, the ONDP did tend to do generally better in the Ottawa area (and elsewhere in Eastern Ontario, like Cornwall) in the 70s--there was a fairly strong Cassidy/Gigantes machine going...

[Hatman 🍁]

Then again, the ONDP did tend to do generally better in the Ottawa area (and elsewhere in Eastern Ontario, like Cornwall) in the 70s--there was a fairly strong Cassidy/Gigantes machine going...

Yeah, Gigantes winning where she did is still a marvel to me. Her riding, Carleton East contained mostly suburbs at the time. She got elected in 1975 thanks to a 3-way split. But the NDP back then was generally stronger across the whole province (provincially anyways). But it has never been that strong in Eastern Ontario, even back then.

I don't have the poll breakdowns to prove it, but Ottawa South containing the Glebe and Old Ottawa South and Old Ottawa East is a huge reason why the NDP did "well" in Ottawa South 1967-1995.  Elections Ontario has the poll break down from 1995 at least, so I could look at the numbers (unfortunately, their chart isn't very copy and pasteable).

[DL]

I suspect that Ottawa South is a very small "l" liberal sort of riding (plus having a large Muslim population) and if we were ever in a situation where the race was polarized into an NDP vs. PC contest - the NDP could win...but the vestigial Liberal vote is clearly very strong there. Still will be interesting to see what happens in a byelection with a non-McGuinty on the ballot.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's not so much Muslim as it is Arab. (specifically Lebanese). Many of the Arabs here are Christian. Christian Arabs tend to be less NDP friendly. There are some muslim pockets however, like Heron Gate or any of the community housing areas.

[DL]

It's not so much Muslim as it is Arab. (specifically Lebanese). Many of the Arabs here are Christian. Christian Arabs tend to be less NDP friendly.

Ah yes, the Mac Harb fans.

[Hatman 🍁]

As for NDP strengths in this riding, it does come the multi-ethnic poorer areas. We won the most polls in recent memory in the 2011 election by winning such areas. Before that our only recent poll win was in 2004 with Monia Mazigh winning one poll in Heron Gate.

Heron Gate is probably the NDP's best neighbourhood. It is pretty much one large, high density community housing development. It is pretty diverse, the language breakdown (which I just put on Wikipedia) is  30% English, 10% French, Arabic (19%), Somali (11%), Persian (3%) Creoles (2%), Nepali (2%), Spanish (2%), Urdu (2%), Amharic (1%) and Chinese (1%).

If we run Wali Farah again, he will play well here- and could win it.

[toaster]

A candidate like Jagmeet Singh would do well, I think.  But they are few and far between. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Very few Sikhs here, so no. Plus, Ottawa South is post-war suburbia which is very different than his riding, which newer suburbia. Most Ottawa South residents wouldn't even consider the riding to be suburban, at least not the northern half of the riding. The southern half is much newer.

Ottawa South is mostly white, despite the high percentage of Arabs, so running a visible minority isn't necessarily an advantage.

[toaster]

Very few Sikhs here, so no. Plus, Ottawa South is post-war suburbia which is very different than his riding, which newer suburbia. Most Ottawa South residents wouldn't even consider the riding to be suburban, at least not the northern half of the riding. The southern half is much newer.

Ottawa South is mostly white, despite the high percentage of Arabs, so running a visible minority isn't necessarily an advantage.

Quite telling of your character that you assume I chose him because of his religion.  And that "no" comment?  Seriously, there are very few gay people in most ridings, should they also not run?  People vote for candidates with religions (cultures, sexual orientations, genders, etc) different than their own.

He's a very intelligent young man, well-liked across party lines, and was able to get a large ethnic vote out in his favour, particularly among young people.  Anyway, I was referring to his personality mainly, he's a very good communicator, very personable, and attractive to both visible minorities and "whites". 

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, I didn't know what you meant by "a candidate like Jagmeet Singh". I would hope that "a candidate like Jagmeet Singh" (the way you've described) could win anywhere.  I'm not sure what makes Ottawa South so different that it would be especially appealing to charismatic candidates like Jagmeet.

[lilTommy]

Jagmeet is a great candidate, but one that you can't just replicate anywhere... He plays/ed well in Bramalea-Gore-Malton due to its demographics to some degree

Bramalea
41% immigrants - 22% being Indian
42% visible minorities - 20% being south asian
10% sikh

Malton
58% immigrants - 38% being Indian
69% visible minorities - 42% being south asian
25% sikh

BUT... in 2011 (both federal and prov.) the three parties all ran south asian candidates. So Jagmeet's style, very new media savvy, charismatic, youth oriented, big party apparatus push all helped him win.