The Republican trend of CO-03
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  The Republican trend of CO-03
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Mr.Phips
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« on: June 14, 2013, 01:03:47 PM »

Colorado's third Congressional district since the 1971 redistricting has essentially been the Western half of the state and Pueblo.  Up until about the mid 1990's, this part of the state actually voted a little bit to the left of the state as a whole.  Jimmy Carter narrowly won the district in 1976 as he was losing by double digits statewide and Michael Dukakis only lost it by four points in 1988 as he was losing by eight statewide.  By 2012, even as Obama was winning statewide by five points, he lost here by about five points. 

I think these changes can be explained by the growth in heavily Republican Mesa county and the fairly stagnant population and even Democratic margins in heavily Hispanic Pueblo county.  In 1976, when this district was considered Democratic leaning, Mesa cast 27,000 votes and Pueblo, 45000.  This left a fairly good Democratic cushion.

By 2012, Pueblo grew to 76,000 votes, while Mesa nearly caught up, casting 73,000 votes.  Add this to fact that Mesa has become more Republican than Pueblo is Democratic.  The Democratic trend in the heavily Latino counties at the Southern tier fails to make up for this. 

An interseting look at the one part of Colorado that seems to be trending Republican. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2013, 01:56:41 PM »

The Democratic trend in the heavily Latino counties at the Southern tier fails to make up for this. 

There aren't very many people in the San Luis Valley counties. What has trended Dem is the resort towns. But have a look at the trend in Huerfano and Las Animas - union ex-mining counties (and 40% Hispanic today... but that's not why Obama performed ten points below Dukakis.)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2013, 05:23:18 PM »

Interesting, meanwhile today's CO-1, CO-2, CO-6, and CO-7 have gotten much more democratic. Also I believe rural CO-4 has gotten more republican (not sure though). After all, stronger urban population can easily defeat republican rural population and thus why Colorado has trended democratic.
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2013, 02:32:17 AM »

Interesting, meanwhile today's CO-1, CO-2, CO-6, and CO-7 have gotten much more democratic. Also I believe rural CO-4 has gotten more republican (not sure though). After all, stronger urban population can easily defeat republican rural population and thus why Colorado has trended democratic.

I think CO-04/the Eastern Slope has gotten more Republican because Fort Collins was taken out of the district and shifted into CO-02 (Jared Polis's district).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2013, 04:12:59 PM »

Interesting, meanwhile today's CO-1, CO-2, CO-6, and CO-7 have gotten much more democratic. Also I believe rural CO-4 has gotten more republican (not sure though). After all, stronger urban population can easily defeat republican rural population and thus why Colorado has trended democratic.

I think CO-04/the Eastern Slope has gotten more Republican because Fort Collins was taken out of the district and shifted into CO-02 (Jared Polis's district).

Exactly.  The old CO-04 was clearly trending Dem.  Fort Collins was driving that trend and was growing in population, while the heavily Republican Eastern Slope is stagnant. 
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DS0816
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2013, 04:22:00 PM »

Is it fact that Fort Collins was taken out of Colorado's 4th Congressional District?

Over at Wikipedia, for Congressman Cory Gardiner (R-Yuma), the map of Colo. #04 still shows Fort Collins as part of that district.
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RedSLC
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2013, 04:28:15 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2013, 04:42:48 PM by SLValleyMan »

Is it fact that Fort Collins was taken out of Colorado's 4th Congressional District?

Over at Wikipedia, for Congressman Cory Gardiner (R-Yuma), the map of Colo. #04 still shows Fort Collins as part of that district.

That's the map of the old district. For the new CO-4, Larimer County was removed from the district and put in CO-2, while the new district picked up heavily republican Elbert County and most of similarly heavily GOP Douglas County, which had previously been part of CO-6 (Tom Tancredo's old district.)

As a result, the new district is way more republican than the old one. Obama came within a point of winning the old one in 2008, but would have lost the new one that same year by fourteen and a half points. Romney carried it in 2012 with nearly sixty percent of the vote.
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