India 2014

[FredLindq]

Is all the rapes reported in western media an issue among politicians in India?!

Might make a difference in wealthy modern urban areas with upper middle class voters, but I suspect it makes little difference in the vast majority of rural areas.  The Food Bill is an example where the INC is pretty much writing off the urban vote, where it was successful in 2009 based on Singh and Rahul Gandhi, in 2014 and going for the rural vote.

What?! :-) Did you answer another question?

[minionofmidas]

Correction: contrary to what it looks like on that map, RR Nagar is actually on the southwest side of Bangalore. It's just that there's a outer exurban westside segment reaching down to the territory immediately west of it, that's included in one of the Bangalore urban Lok Sabha constituencies.

[Sbane]

Is all the rapes reported in western media an issue among politicians in India?!

Might make a difference in wealthy modern urban areas with upper middle class voters, but I suspect it makes little difference in the vast majority of rural areas.  The Food Bill is an example where the INC is pretty much writing off the urban vote, where it was successful in 2009 based on Singh and Rahul Gandhi, in 2014 and going for the rural vote.

What?! :-) Did you answer another question?

I think his point is that the types of areas where it would make a difference aren't really being contested anyways. I think that is right, we will see a huge swing away from Congress in the cities, at least as things stand currently.

[FredLindq]

I see. So there will be a swing against INC in the urban areas due to this rapes?!
Are BJP more "law and order" than INC?

[Sbane]

I don't think the rapes will matter politically.

[jaichind]

Correction: contrary to what it looks like on that map, RR Nagar is actually on the southwest side of Bangalore. It's just that there's a outer exurban westside segment reaching down to the territory immediately west of it, that's included in one of the Bangalore urban Lok Sabha constituencies.

Well, either way the district is mostly dominated by the Vokkaligas caste, which usually vote JD(S).  Mainly because Gowda himself is a Vokkaliga.  The BJP, especially when led by Yeddyurappa, who is himself a Lingayat, is the party of the rival Lingayats caste.  One of the reason why the de facto JD(S)-BJP-KJP anti-INC alliance did not work in the by-elections is  the  Vokkaligas who usually vote JD(S) saw this alliance as an alliance with their Lingayats rivals and caused significant defections to INC.  Of course once anti-INC anti-incumbency sets in in the future it might not play out this way. 

[jaichind]

I don't think the rapes will matter politically.

I agree.  All these rape stories will not help India tourism but is a political non-issues outside of certain urban centers, and even there it will not sway votes. 

[jaichind]

In TN, there are signs of INC reaching out to DMDK.  Also PMK is reaching out to DMK and DMDK to form an anti-AIADMK alliance.  It seems INC's strategy is to ally with DMDK and then as a bloc negotiate almost as equals with DMK for an anti-AIADMK grand alliance, perhaps including PMK.

[FredLindq]

Is AIADMK that strong? Is AIADMK still allied with MDMK?

[jaichind]

Modi is anointed as BJP PM candidate.  Advani refuses to arrive at the meeting of his anointment, might exit BJP

[RogueBeaver]

Modi is anointed as BJP PM candidate.  Advani refuses to arrive at the meeting of his anointment, might exit BJP

I assume Congress will wait to see what the new Lok Sabha looks like before choosing their PM candidate. Let Singh take the hit and Rahul swoops in later.

[jaichind]

I assume Congress will wait to see what the new Lok Sabha looks like before choosing their PM candidate. Let Singh take the hit and Rahul swoops in later.

That is the INC tradition.  INC usually does not project a PM or CM candidate before the election.  INC high command would appoint a PM or CM after the elections based on consensus or a high command decision in case there is non consensus.   

[jaichind]

Given recent Hindu-Muslim riots in UP which is most likely provoked by BJP and SP, there might be a chance that INC and BSP might come together to form an alliance or at least tactical understanding at the ground level.  Right now BJP and SP are desperate to gain ground in UP so both are polarizing communal tensions and then riots which already killed over thirty people near Muzaffarnagar.   

[FredLindq]

Why would Advani leave BJP? And what party Will he then join? It seems like Modi is killing alla chanses off power for his party.

[minionofmidas]

Because the party has made it abundantly clear that they would like him to retire quietly without a fuss, like Atalji. He won't. They can make him do it, but they can't make him do it gracefully.

[minionofmidas]

lol, this is how INC politicians tweet:

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[jaichind]

lol, this is how INC politicians tweet:

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Well, the act of adding "ji" to every name is an honorific in India.  In theory it should only be added if the person being addressed is Brahman but in reality this is used more widely.  In INC circles which are mostly dominated by upper caste members, the use of "ji" is quite prevalent, especially in Northern India. 

[FredLindq]

Who is Rakani and why would he win if Modi does not?

[jaichind]

Who is Rakani and why would he win if Modi does not?

Rajnath Singh, former CM of UP and current president of BJP.  He is close to RSS and does not have good relations with Advani but not really seen as a hardliner like Modi. 

[minionofmidas]

lol, this is how INC politicians tweet:

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Well, the act of adding "ji" to every name is an honorific in India. 

Duh, I know that, but it was funny seeing it four times in a tweet (also the mix of first names and family names preceding it).

Also, the tweeter is a Muslim.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on Modi.

[jaichind]

Duh, I know that, but it was funny seeing it four times in a tweet (also the mix of first names and family names preceding it).

Also, the tweeter is a Muslim.

Sorry.  I did not intend to imply you did not know that.  On this topic, INC leaders in UP are imfamous in overusing "ji".  From a layman's point of view doing this makes them seem pretentious.  In the USA it would be like a guy walking around faking a British accent to make himself seem to be from an educated elite or nobility. 

[jaichind]

Some polls on assembly elections later this year



Rajasthan.   Narrow BJP victory over incumbent INC.   INC keeps its vote share from 2008 but BJP gains from BSP to come out ahead.  Usually polls like this overestimate the opposition while exit polls usually overestimate the incumbent. 




Two polls for Delhi.  INC losing ground but AAP taking anti-INC votes from BJP. Comes down to how much AAP takes determines the difference between INC victory, BJP victory or no overall majority.



Chhattisgarh has both INC and BJP gaining but INC closing the seat gap some more.



Same in MP where both INC and BJP gains votes but INC gains seats. 

[jaichind]

In  Karnataka Yeddyurappa is working toward merging his KJP with BJP.  The core committee KJP which several members which does not have a BJP background have voted to be part of NDA but against such a merger.

[FredLindq]

Some good news for BJP both in North and South then...