India 2014

[Sbane]

It does seem like good news for the BJP. I am really sad about the 2004 election results considering what has happened over the last 9 years. If Vajpayee would have won, I think even more reforms could have been pushed through. Instead, Sonia Gandhi, and other assorted retards such as Mamata Banerjee have basically brought the country back to it's knees again. I don't blame Manmohan Singh of course. If he had actual power, India would be fine. But he doesn't. Sonia does. Other leaders such as Mamata do. I wish Vajpayee would have gotten 5 more years instead of Modi getting them, but I guess that's how it's going to be.

[jaichind]

Recent developments in AP is interesting.  TRS is stepping up attacks on TDP after a meeting between TRS leader  K Chandrasekhar Rao visited Delhi to meet with INC.  This could be a sign that INC-TRS merger or alliance is coming soon.  TDP leader Naidu meet with BJP leader Rajnath in signs that TDP-BJP alliance or at least tacit understanding might be coming.  Also, YSRCP leader Jagan was just granted bail after 16 month in jail over possible corruption.  There is talk that this is part of a de facto understanding between INC and YSRCP in the upcoming election.  More likely is INC run on a pro-Telangana platform as the Telangana INC and YSRCP run as the anti-Telangana INC with the two factions merging after the elections with Jagan as CM of AP.

[jaichind]

Outlook magazine just did a survey of political experts and came out with a projection that NDA, which is defined as  BJP + SS + SAD + INLD will get around 187 seats in the upcoming election. 

The survey points out the NDA is unlikely to gain and in fact will might lose seats in Chhattisgarh, HP, Jharkhand, Gujarat and Goa.   NDA will gain in MP, Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi and Maharash­tra.  NDA will for sure lose significant seats in Karn­ataka.  Bihar will be flat at best for NDA and found that NDA will get at most 30 seats in UP. 

The survey points out that NDA will need 90-100 seats to form a government which is bleak given Modi at the helm. 

[FredLindq]

It seems like the next election Will be extremely hard to predict.

Amy news regarding third and fourth fronts?

[jaichind]

Three days after the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh cleared the controversial ordinance on convicted lawmakers, Congress vice- president Rahul Gandhi led his party’s dramatic U-turn on the issue, trashing the ordinance as “complete nonsense which should be torn apart and thrown away”.

Not sure Manmohan Singh  will stand for this and might resign after he returns to India from New York in UN.  It seems that Rahul and INC think that Singh at this stage is more unpopular than then are and will be a drag in the next election.  Distancing themselves from the fiasco of UPA-II seems like a way to retain some voter support.  This is not a good sign for INC in 2014.

[DINGO Joe]

Any chance of Ron Paul moving to India and making a run for PM?

http://news.yahoo.com/gods-forbid-indias-temples-guard-gold-government-211800927--business.html

I am truly fascinated by India's battle with gold.

[jaichind]

Any chance of Ron Paul moving to India and making a run for PM?

http://news.yahoo.com/gods-forbid-indias-temples-guard-gold-government-211800927--business.html

I am truly fascinated by India's battle with gold.

Well, it is not just India. They are just afraid the government will pull a FDR.   Remember, FDR back in 1933 first banned ownership of gold, then once all the gold is under his control. devalued the USD against gold by almost 2 to 1. 

[DINGO Joe]

Any chance of Ron Paul moving to India and making a run for PM?

http://news.yahoo.com/gods-forbid-indias-temples-guard-gold-government-211800927--business.html

I am truly fascinated by India's battle with gold.

Well, it is not just India. They are just afraid the government will pull a FDR.   Remember, FDR back in 1933 first banned ownership of gold, then once all the gold is under his control. devalued the USD against gold by almost 2 to 1. 

Well, I hope India's not on the verge of a GD.  I read quite a bit and I don't know of any other country that's currently having to deal with anything quite like this.

[jaichind]

Well, I hope India's not on the verge of a GD.  I read quite a bit and I don't know of any other country that's currently having to deal with anything quite like this.

Well, Indians always viewed gold as a hedge against inflation.  Structural inflation are quite high due to the high government subsidies.  With elections coming up these subsidies will only go up and lead to more inflation.  So there are fears, I feel mostly unfounded, that the government will take away the gold from the private sector. 

[jaichind]

Latest TimesNow C-voter poll.  Modi having an affect.  Now it is NDA 186 vs UPA 117.  Vote share it is NDA 35% UPA 27%.  BJP making gains in UP, Rajasthan, MP and Karnataka since July.  I suspect if NDA is really at 35% then its seat share would be higher than 186 seats.  Back in 2009 UPA got 36% of the vote share and won 259 seats. 

I looked over the results and of survey and adjusted my existing prediction to NDA 167 UPA 135.  This is still assuming no Bihar alliance between INC and RJD/LJP or JD(U).  I do assume some sort of Anti-AIADMK alliance that INC will be part of which TimesNow C-voter does not assume.  In  Jharkhand I still assume an INC-JMM alliance but not a BJP-JVM alliance.  Again, these assumptions are based my gut feelings on how various alliance politics will work out. 

In either case NDA will need to get to 200 to form a government with Modi as PM.  If not I suspect Modi will not make it to PM.

[RogueBeaver]

Sounds like a complete mess. What would happen if TF had a seat plurality? How many seats does UPA need to be reasonably certain of forming a coalition?

[Хahar 🤔]

Lalu Prasad has been expelled from Lok Sabha.

[jaichind]

Recent developments.  Yes Laloo Yadav, leader of RJD is in jail and no longer a MP.  At the same time there is a movement in Bihar INC to resume the RJD-LJP-INC alliance in Bihar.  Their logic is that in a 3 way race (BJP vs JD(U) vs RJD-LJP) having the caste equations right as well making use of the anti-Modi polorization is key.  Their argument is that the sympathy factor will be on RJD side given what happen to Laloo.  Remember, the logic of the Indian voter is that an election loss clenses a politician of wrong-doing.  So Laloo already been punished for his corrupt regime in 2005 2009 and again in 2010.  Putting him in jail now actually creates a sympathy wave for him.  Also a RJD-LPJ-INC would consolidate the Muslim voting base of RJD with INC's role as the anti-Modi party. 

Rahul Gandhi, it is said, is for a JD(U)-INC alliance.  His logic is a game theory argument that a RJD-LJP-INC alliance could push BJP and JD(U) back togeather whereas there is no way BJP and RJD could come togeather.  He views BJP, JD(U), and RJD-LJP as roughly equal so as long as it is a three way race, the side INC joins will win.  So a JD(U)-INC alliance ensures a three way race.

The RJD-LJP now sees 2014 as now or never and are working overtime to get INC in their camp. JD(U) is still shopping around and trying to organize an anti-INC anti-BJP alliance.  Given this is the case it is more likely more not that the RJD-LJP-INC alliance will be revived.  We will see.

[jaichind]

Things are not going well for BJP in the upcoming Delhi assembly election.  It was shaping up to be a BJP victory given the anti-INC upsurging in Delhi.  Then the AAP jumped into the fray and are splitting the anti-INC vote.  Then SAD alliance fell apart in Delhi (there are significant Sikh population in Delhi so it makes a difference.)  Now there is massive revolt within the BJP over who to project as CM candidate as the BJP is split down the middle between two factions.  After months of dithering, BJP declared amiable face Harsh Vardhan as its chief ministerial candidate for Delhi Assembly elections despite opposition by city unit chief Vijay Goel.  But  the BJP Delhi unit chief Vijay Goel is not likely to go all out to support the BJP effort.  If INC manages to scrape by then it is another lost opportunity for BJP. 

[minionofmidas]

BJP declared amiable face Harsh Vardhan

Odd how the mind works. I read that name earlier today in a subway station and it jumped at me from your text straight away. Though this other Harsh spells his surname Wardhan and is an Indian classical musician playing the Bansuri (the Indian flute) and giving a workshop during the day and a concert this evening, here in Frankfurt.

[Sbane]

Lalu Prasad has been expelled from Lok Sabha.

lol

[jaichind]

Samay-Hub Pulse pre-poll survey

MP
           votes    
BJP       37        
INC      34

With BJP going from 143 to 124 but still retaining majority


Delhi
           votes    seats
BJP       38          32
INC      37          31
AAP      19           6

Result will be hung


Chhattisgarh

          votes    seats
BJP      41         46
INC     39          42

With BJP going from 50 to 46 but still retaining tiny majority


Rajasthan

          seats
BJP       103
INC        79

BJP capturing a narrow majority from a small INC majority.

In all 4 states the ruling party will take losses.  For the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh it is not enough for it to lose power.

[jaichind]

CNN-IBN poll for MP and Chhattisgarh shows BJP growing its majority in terms of both seats and vote share.

[jaichind]

Voting already took place for part of Chhattisgarh.  MP, Delhi, and Rajasthan will vote soon.  Votes will be counted Dec 7th.  The consensus seems to be

Delhi - Three way race between INC, BJP and AAP.  INC will slight advantage. 
MP - INC to make gains but not enough retake the majority from BJP.
Rajasthan - INC to lose power and go from a slight majority to a slight majority for BJP.
Chhattisgarh - Will be very close, INC could recapture the majority from BJP.  Will be a tossup.
Mizoram - Hard to say.  Most likely INC will retain majority.

[jaichind]

Different parts of  Chhattisgarh are voting and the second phase is done.  They do votes in phases due to Maoist threats so the military needs to deploy in different sections one at a time to deter Maoist rebels from attacking voting stations.  Anyway, turnout is much higher than expected and most likely exceeded 2008 levels by 10%.  If so the the result might be more volatile.  Whereas the base case was BJP in a narrow win, the result might range from an INC landslide to BJP landslide.  In that sense chances of INC winning has gone up so I guess this is good news for INC.  Of course it might also mean a INC blowout by BJP.

[jaichind]

AC Nielsen-ABP News came out with a poll projecting that in Rajasthan it will be a thin BJP victory of 105 seats versus 75 seats for INC.  INC set to lose 3.9% of the vote and BJP set to win 2.4% of the vote from 2008 according to AC Nielsen.

[FredLindq]

Will the turnout effect the outcome and in which ways? I have read that polls and exit polls are forbidden so I was surprised by this poll.

[jaichind]

Will the turnout effect the outcome and in which ways? I have read that polls and exit polls are forbidden so I was surprised by this poll.

INC in fact is asking ECI to punish AC Nielsen-ABP for publishing this poll.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan assembly elections see record 74.38% voter turnout.  Whereas before the CW is that the BJP is slightly ahead of INC, this turnout means that the INC will be defeated by a wide margin.  Of course earlier record turnout in Chhattisgarh and MP also imply that the BJP stands a strong chance of being ousted in Chhattisgarh, and will lose significant ground in MP with an outside chance of losing power even in MP.

Overall this is bad news for INC in 2014 as this level of turnout seems to imply the voting population is fed up with the state of affairs.  If replicated in the general election, the UPA will lose by a mile.

[FredLindq]

Why? Is this just anti incuembency high turnout? Might it not be positive for BJP even Where it rules?!