India 2014

[jaichind]

Why? Is this just anti incuembency high turnout? Might it not be positive for BJP even Where it rules?!

It is quite possible.  Most surges in turnout tends to be negative news for the incumbent party.

[FredLindq]

What are your prognosis for the uppcoming state elections?!

[jaichind]

Record turnout in Delhi.  INC is toast there.

Now that voting is over my view are:

Delhi: Both BJP and AAP did well on high turnout.  BJP will be largest party but not have majority.  AAP somewhat behind INC and will be kingmaker.  Most likely a BJP led minority government.

Chhattisgarh:  Will be close but I think chances are higher for INC to be largest party rather than BJP.  It is possible that no party will have overall majority but INC is more likely to be the biggest party and lead the government.

MP:  BJP is losing ground with chances of INC outright victory still less than 50/50.  INC for sure will gain seats.

Rajasthan:  INC is out and BJP will capture a soild majority.

[jaichind]

Exit polls just came out from C-voter.

Rajasthan: BJP 130 INC 48 (total 200)
New Delhi: BJP 29, INC 21, AAP 16 (total 70)
MP: BJP 128, INC 92 (total 230)
Chhattisgarh: BJP 44, INC 41 (total 90)

If the exit polls are this close for Chhattisgarh then most likely INC won.  Exit polls tend to overestimate the incumbent party.  Looks like it will be close in MP, and INC faces wipeout in Rajastan, just like I said. 

[FredLindq]

I think BJP will win all four, but they will not have an outright majority in Dehli.

[FredLindq]

What about Mizoram?!

[jaichind]

"In Congress-ruled Mizoram, the ruling party is projected to win 19 seats of the total 40 seats. The Mizo National Front (MNF) plus Mizo People's Conference (MPC) is likely to win 14 seats, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) five seats, and others two seats."

Looks like INC will return to power in Mizoram by roping in a partner.

[FredLindq]

No chance off an non INC guvernment?!

[jaichind]

Predictions

Rajasthan:
BJP        135
INC         50
Others    15

New Delhi:
BJP          26
INC         19
AAP         23
Others     2

MP:
BJP         120
INC        100
Others    10

Chhattisgarh:
BJP          40
INC         45
Others     5

[jaichind]

Counting on its way.

INC destroyed in Delhi and Rajastan.  AAP running second in Delhi and so far it seems BJP will be largest party in Delhi but not a majority.  INC seems to be leading in Chhattisgarh.   MP is a surprise for me as BJP is gaining seats from INC.

[jaichind]

Leader of BJP and now likely CM of Delhi talked about doing judo classes for the women of Delhi to beat back the wave of rapes in Delhi.

[jaichind]

So far it is

Rajasthan:
BJP        159
INC         25
Others    15

New Delhi:
BJP          34
INC           8
AAP         26
Others     2

MP:
BJP         161
INC          60
Others      9

Chhattisgarh:
BJP          46
INC         44
Others     0

Note these are with leads so some shifting around will take place.  Chhattisgarh now could go either way. I generally got the trends correct but with a pro-INC bias.  MP I was totally off as I expected INC to gain seats and not lose around 11 seats.

[jaichind]

Sheila Diksh**t, the three time INC Delhi CM, lost her seat to AAP leader Kejriwal.  Kejriwal ran against her explicitly to make the point that AAP was a viable alternative.  The gamble paid off as AAP won, it seems, around 26 seats and is keeping BJP from a majority in Delhi.

[jaichind]

Looking over the results it seems one of the reasons I got MP wrong was the affect of the who 2008 Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party voters voted for this time.  Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party was BJP rebel group led my former CM of MP  Uma Bharti and ran in 2008 getting around 5% of the vote.  Uma Bharti has since rejoined BJP folding Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party into BJP.  It seems these voters voted for BJP whereas I expected them to vote for INC.  I viewed Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party voters in 2008 as anti-incumbent voters when in reality they were BJP voters but supported Bharti.  This made the difference between my prediction and the real results.

[jaichind]

Final results

Delhi
BJP          32
INC           8
AAP         28
Others      2

Rajastan
BJP         162
INC          21
Others     16

MP
BJP         165
INC          58
Others       7

Chhattisgarh
BJP          49
INC          39
Others      2

Mirzoram
INC          33
MNF           5
Others       2

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share the BJP victories in MP and Rajasthan are not that massive.  INC vote share in fact is slowing rising in 3 of the 4 states with the exception of Delhi.  What is interesting is that this time NOTA (none of the above) is now an option but very few people actually choose it.

MP
                 2003        2008         2013
BJP            42.5        38.09          44.87
INC            31.7        32.85          36.82

So what is taking place here the fall in BSP and others vote share and polarization toward BJP INC which this cycle favors the BJP.  But INC is also gaining votes from 2003 to 2008 and to 2013.  The BJP-INC gap is lower in 2013 when compared to 2003.  Note that BJSP which is a BJP splinter won 4.71% of the vote in 2008. So in 2008 BJP+BJSP is 42.8.  In other words BJP vote share in MP is mostly stable 2003 2008 and then 2013 while INC vote share is rising each year.

Rajasthan
                 2003        2008         2013      
BJP             46             35.6          46
INC             34             36.9          33.68

So 2013 is really the same as 2003.  This state for sure lean BJP since the vote share when INC wins has a lower winning margin than when BJP wins.

Chhattisgarh
                 2003        2008         2013
BJP            39.26        40.33         41.04
INC            36.7          38.6           40.29

Vote share is slowing going up for both BJP and INC with INC slowing closing the gap.

Delhi
                  2003        2008         2013
BJP              35.22       36.34        33
INC              48.13       40.3          25
AAP                                               30

Here is clearly a place where the INC vote share got dented over time, unlike the other 3 states.  But this more about AAP taking a lot more INC vote share than it took from BJP.

So what does all this mean for 2014.  Simple: State polls do not guarantee 2014 BJP triumph.  Note that 2013 is really not that bad for INC outside of Delhi when compared to 2003.  Note that after 2003, UPA won in 2004 general elections.  

It is clear that INC is losing ground and in BJP vs INC states INC's double incumbency means that the BJP will gain.  But most places it is regional parties that will dominate and support for regional parties is set to grow in the 2014 parliamentary elections.  BJP clearly did well in urban areas.  But that is same as the vote base as the AAP.  If AAP decides to run in other states it could take a lot of the urban anti-INC votes from BJP.  It is clear that the UPA will lose in 2014.  It is not clear that NDA will win.

[jaichind]

The national BJP is coming out in full attack mode on the AAP. 

"BJP leader Arun Jaitley today dared Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to form a government with Congress support and fulfil "unrealistic promises" instead of avoiding power where it will be like a "fish out of water"."

I guess they also see the threat that I pointed out AAP pose to BJP if it were to go national.  It would split the BJP urban vote base.

[ag]

Actually, technically in Delhi BJP has 31 + 1 for their satellite SAD.

My prediction: AAP and BJP will be attacking each other mercilessly, while Congress and AAP will be involved in a strange dance. The reason is: Congress weakness. In Delhi now, arguably, it is now (at least temporarily) a third party. In a FPTP environment that means AAP and BJP are fighting for the Congress vote: as long as Congress "cannot win" the task for each party is to make themselves the preferred option for the defectors.

AAP simply has to become THE secular option, at least in some areas - or it will be a one-season wonder.  For them it will mean attacking BJP on ideological grounds, while trying to tag Congress as corrupt "unelectable" (at least, locally) failures. Modi will be increasingly used as the foil: attacks will be directed at him not to gain votes from the BJP, but to prevent votes going from the Congress to the BJP. And, of course, the symmetric attack is going to be that AAP cannot govern/ is bad for business/ whatever (or, in places, that it is not Hindu enough - but that is a matter of course). Of course, this also means that, besides the obvious strongholds, they should attack in places where the Cong is weak, but where there is no major local party. Gujrat, Rajastan (now), etc. They will not win in Gujrat, but they may hope to permanently displace the Congress as the local opposition - that should be the objective at the moment.

Congress will be in a tricky position. On one hand, it has to prevent leakage of the votes to AAP. On the other hand, better leakage to AAP than to BJP.  If I were them, I would try to smother AAP in love.  AAP is only a threat in a few, mostly urban, areas (or where Congress is weak, anyway). Elsewhere they will be a non-factor. Be nice to them, hint at every opportunity that you value their opinions and would love to form a government with them.  Push comes to shove, unlike the BJP, this could be another component in a Cong coalition - make it very hard for AAP to articulate, why it does not want to be in it, without making it possible for the Cong to tag them with the hint of possible treason to the secular cause (" We are willing to do everything they want. Why are they refusing to work with us if not because they are really planning to tie-up with Modi?"). AAP might continue swear they will not work with the majors, but what if the only alternative is a Modi cabinet? And after a nasty campaign, for that matter. So the Congress should be happy to make that alternative as horrible for AAP (in comparison) as possible. Anyway, I doubt Kejriwal is Beppe Grillo (or wants to be one). And if he is, his eruption will be forgotten in 5-10 years.

[ag]

Indians here: why isn't anybody acknowledging that I predicted today's news 12 hours before it happened?

)

[jaichind]

Good points AG.  Sorry, I always meant to say BJP+ when I said BJP won 32 seats.  Note that SAD is not really a satellite of BJP, even in Delhi.  Earlier on SAD threatened to run independent of BJP when it did not get enough seats for itself.  It forced a compromise and the alliance resumed.

It seems both BJP and INC see the AAP as a threat and both want the AAP to come to power with their support so the population can see that they are just another political party, especially with AAP without a majority so it has to look in the rear view mirror all the time.  That for sure is the BJP motivation as the AAP can eat into its base.  INC is mostly about that with an outside chance of a de facto alliance with AAP in 2014.

Of course the AAP is not biting.  So now we are stuck with no government and a chance of another vote.

[Sol]

How likely do y'all think it is for the government to reverse the gay rights decision, as they've pledged to do?

[jaichind]

How likely do y'all think it is for the government to reverse the gay rights decision, as they've pledged to do?

INC is making this an issue but it will only make noises to try to capture the youth vote.  It will not actually take steps to pass a law to reverse the gay ban since that would mean it would lose in its rural base.  BJP as a Hindu party will not be motivated to act to reverse the gay ban.  So nothing will take place on this issue until 2014 elections and most likely for years after that especially if the BJP is part of the ruling coalition.   

[jaichind]

It seems DMK has ruled out an alliance with INC for 2014 elections.  It most likely means a INC-DMDK alliance and also almost makes sure that AIADMK would come out the winner.  DMK clearly is doing this as it senses an anti-INC wave and in TN specifically on the Sri Lanka Tamil minority issue where the INC is seen to be condoning the Sri Lanka regime.  I wonder which alliance would PMK gravitate toward.  PMK for sure will not join AIADMK alliance so it could go with either DMK or INC-DMDK.

[jaichind]

Lalu Yadav is said to be out on bail soon.  This and the drubbing the INC took in the 2013 assembly elections means that JD(U) might opt to go it alone as a weakened INC might have to accept a low number of seats in an alliance with a revived RJD-LJP alliance.

[jaichind]

There are hints that in AP, TDP and BJP might revive their alliance.  This would be significant as this has the potential to add a bunch more seats to both BJP and TDP.  Not sure how this would play out as BJP would insist on a pro-Telangana position which in turn would hurt TDP-BJP in the rest of AP where YSRCP would capture the anti-Telangana vote.  If TDP-BJP are vague on the Telangana issue then they would leave the Telangana field to TSR and INC.