India 2014

[jaichind]

Are there any good news for BJP at all?! It seems like INC is a shoe in...
Any chanse off a third and fourth front upset in the next election?

Well, BJP does have something going for it.  It does have Modi at the helm which would make BJP far more effective force in places like UP, Rajasthan, MP, Gujurat (obviously), Harayana, New Delhi and perhaps Bihar.  Modi is strong in the Northern Hindi heartland where the upper caste and middle caste vote might move toward the BJP.  If you go back six month ago which was really the low point of the UPA and was told that Modi would lead the BJP I am pretty sure elite opinion in India would say that the NDA would cruise to victory.  Now things are not so clear even with Modi in charge of BJP.  It looks more like a neck-to-neck race between UPA and NDA which does give the UPA an advantage after the elections.  But by no means is it a shoe in.  NDA will for sure gain from its low point in 2009, it is a matter of how much.  And just because the way things are developing seems to put the UPA to do well enough to block a NDA government it is by no means clear that UPA could form a government after the elections, let alone a stable one.  I think the result will be like 1996, where a INC led government went down to defeat but no block got a majority leading to a series unstable minority governments.

On the medium term I think things do look brighter for UPA.  The NDA pretty much played their trump card, Modi and shot their bolt.  The UPA did not really deploy Rahul Gandhi yet although he might be all talk and no substance.  Of course Rahul Gandhi is not even the trump card of UPA.  UPA is keeping its trump card in reserve for now to be deployed in 2014 or more likely the election after 2014.  This real trump card of the INC/UPA is Priyanka Gandhi, younger sister of Rahul Gandhi and daughter of Rajiv/Sonia Gandhi.  She style and mannerism makes her a more effective politician than her brother and most likely more popular.  She for sure it capable of countering the wave created by Modi be it 2014 or the next election.

[FredLindq]

Any chanses that BJP ropes in AIADMK, TMC, TDP or Other party in AP?

[jaichind]

Any chanses that BJP ropes in AIADMK, TMC, TDP or Other party in AP?

Not that likely pre-election.  Main rason is the following: The minority vote (Muslims and Christians) are 26% of WB, 11% of TN, and 10% in AP.   The BJP vote base in these states are around 3%-6%.  So it does not make sense for AIADMK, TMC, or TDP to form a pre-election alliance with BJP especially with Modi at the helm.  Modi will polorize these minorities vote into tactical voting to defeat the block that BJP is part of.  So these parties will lose more by alliance with BJP.  Of course after the elections it is a different story.  Now there is one case where the BJP can catch a pre-election ally.  BJP strength in AP is mostly in the Telegana region mostly because its support for the Telegana state.  I can see a case where TRS and BJP form an alliance in Telegana on the Telegana issue.  This will take place assuming INC, TDP and YSRCP all do not come up in favor of Telegana state.  In such a case I can see BJP-TRS sweeping the Telegana region.

[jaichind]

New government formed in Jharkhand.  It will be JMM-INC-RJD plus some independents.  Main reason why INC did not support JMM before was because the JMM leader Shibu Soren has been tainted by charges of corruption and murder (yes, murder, Shibu is charged with murder to cover up a corrupt deal he made with INC back in 1993).  This new alliance allows INC to sidestep this by supporting Hemant Soren, son of Shibu Soren, of JMM as Chief Minister. 

What the INC gets from this is an alliance with JMM in Jharkhand in the general elections as well as JMM support in parliamentary constituencies with a tribal sway in Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Bihar as JMM is has its core support as a Tribal (or Adivasi) party.  This alliance will be quite useful for INC, as I pointed out before, because BJP and JD(U) will now compete seperatly in the upcoming elections.

[FredLindq]

What are the main diffrences between TDP, YSRS and TRS? I have understand that TRS is in the Telagna state. 

I thoght BJP already was allied with TRS?

[jaichind]

What are the main diffrences between TDP, YSRS and TRS? I have understand that TRS is in the Telagna state.  

I thoght BJP already was allied with TRS?

Not that much difference between INC and TDP in terms of policy although TDP was created back in the 1980s to project Telegu pride.  INC and TDP alternative in power in AP since the 1980s.  INC and TDP alternate between being the champain of economic reforms and populist welfare state advocate.  YSRCP is a INC spinter.  YSR (or Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy) was the INC CM in AP when he died in a helicoptor accident back in 2009.  YSR led INC back to power in AP based on a populist pro-farmer anti-economic reform plank.  When YSR died the YSR faction in INC wanted YSR's son Jagan to be the CM, something the INC blocked.  Jagan then proceed to form the YSRCP using the populist legacy of YSR as a rallinging point.  So in theory YSRCP could not be for economic reform which makes it different from INC and TDP.  In reality YSRCP just a pressure group to get Jagan to be CM since I cannot see TDP who is the enemy of YSR could accept Jagan as CM.  In that sense on the long run YSRCP will most likely merge with INC or ally with it, before or after the election once INC and YSRCP work out a deal where Jagan can be CM.  In the meantime YSRCP is a disaster for TDP as it is sucking the opposition oxygen away from the TDP. TRS is a TDP splinter and is a one point agenda party to create the Telegana state seperate from AP.  Back in 2004 TRS was with UPA on the INC promise while TDP ran against Telegana (but TDP ally BJP was for Telegana)  to create Telegana which never came to pass.  In 2009, TDP and INC flip flopped where INC was running againist Telegana but TDP for so TRS joined TDP and the Third Front.  But before the election was over TRS then switched to NDA on the gamble that NDA would emerge as the most power block in 2009.   Whent that gamble failed TRS left the NDA.  At this stage TRS in theory can and should join forces with BJP as the only unambigous force for Telegana.  In reality, BJP is trying to get credit for any progress on Telegana, something that angers TRS because that is TRS's pet issue.  Not clear what the real position INC, TDP or YSRCP in 2014 will be on Telegana.  That will determine which front TRS joins (for now.)

[FredLindq]

According to me choosing Modi was worst tactical an strategical choice BJP could make. It be ideological right but BJP Will not win any elections in a long time.

[jaichind]

Karnataka's KJP which is the BJP splinter lead by former BJP CM Yeddyurappa in Karnataka has offered to merge KJP with BJP on the condition that Yeddyurappa be made the leader of the BJP in the state.  Not clear if both BJP and KJP can work out the details and conditions.  But Yeddyurappa is close to Modi and hostile to Advani.  Once Modi won control of the BJP back in June something like an alliance or merger between BJP and KJP is to be expected.

[jaichind]

According to me choosing Modi was worst tactical an strategical choice BJP could make. It be ideological right but BJP Will not win any elections in a long time.

Perhaps.  Depends on how Modi plays his hand.  Modi is effective in mobilizaing the BJP to come out to vote but poor at getting allies.  Modi has the affect of helping UPA in the sense that the polorization as a result of Modi, most non-UPA non-NDA parties does not want to work to pull down the UPA government lest it gets accused of being in league with Modi.  But this also means that UPA and other Third and Forth front parities will fight to occupy the anti-Modi space.  If Modi can appear moderate then this fight on the UPA, Third Front, and Forth Front to occupy the anti-Modi space will mean Modi can perhaps capture the middle and cruise to victory.  Not sure it will happen but it is a path to victory.

[FredLindq]

Ok. Karnatka is in play then. Thats good news for Modi. If not JD (S) joins INC in an alliance there.

[jaichind]

Ok. Karnatka is in play then. Thats good news for Modi. If not JD (S) joins INC in an alliance there.

Yes, to some extent.  For sure if both BJP splinters KJP and BSR runs in Lok Shabha elections it will  do severe damage to BJP in Karnataka.  But INC should have the edge.  The rule in Indian elections are that if a Lok Shabha election is called within a year in a state where the assembly election was run, the ruling party at the state tends to win due to the honeymoon period.  In the second and third year is when the honeymoon period ends.  This is why in UP the SP still has an edge over BSP (SP was elected in 2012) but by next year that edge will end. 

[FredLindq]

But this honeymoon bonus could be affected by new alliances for example in Karnatka if the splinters re-join BJP.

How does it look like in UP? SP has the edge but is Modi mobilizing any more support there?!

[jaichind]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Hindu-nationalist-Modi-kicks-up-storm-with-puppy-remark/articleshow/21046319.cms

"Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi has said he didn't feel guilty for the 2002 Gujarat riots, in which more than 1,000 people were killed, but said he felt as sad as an occupant of a car that runs over a puppy."

"I'm a Hindu nationalist so yes, you can say I'm a Hindu nationalist because I'm a born Hindu."

Wow.  Modi is going Hindu nationalist.  I guess it is a tactic to consolidate his base until he tries to go for the center.  Or he wants to make it a base turnout election.  He might be trying to do a Varun Gandhi of 2009 at the national leve.

Varun Gandhi is the grandson of Indira Gandhi, nephew of Sonia Gandhi and cousin of Rahul Gandhi.  Varun Gandhi's mother is Maneka Gandhi the widow of Sanjay Gandhi, son of Indira Gandhi and brother of Rajiv Gandhi.  After Sanjay Gandhi's death Maneka Gandhi had a falling out with Indira Gandhi and joined the anti-INC opposition.  Back in 2009 both Maneka Gandhi and Varun Gandhi joined BJP.  Varun Gandhi then ran for Lok Shabha in UP on the BJP ticket.  He ran an extremist Hindu nationalist anti-Muslim campaign that actually embarrassed the BJP but won by a landslide on his district by turning it into a Hindu versus Muslim election as he hurt BJP chances elsewhere. Perhaps Modi his hoping he can do the same thing at the all India level.  Most likely this will fail.  We will see how this fits into Modi's strategy over the next few months.  

As for Varun Gandhi, eager to take advantage of his name, BJP is promoting him in the party organization.  It could be that after Modi the next leader of BJP would be Varun Gandhi.  Then it will be Gandhi vs Gandhi where two cousins, Rahul and Varun would lead the two largest parties and political alliances in India.

[ag]

Narendra "Newton" Modi has a lot to answer for

It was a great headline in the Times of India back then - and it still is.

The original article is down here

http://www.echarcha.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7414

[jaichind]

Narendra "Newton" Modi has a lot to answer for

It was a great headline in the Times of India back then - and it still is.

The original article is down here

http://www.echarcha.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7414

I was actually in Gujarat a year after the riots.  I still could see the destruction the riots caused in Muslim parts of town.  I found out while I was there that the most likely method of death was being burned alive.  Most people there did not want to talk about it and tried to pretend it did not take place.  Of course the BJP would counter claim that INC indulged in anti-Sikh riots of 1984.  What is interesting about the 1984 riots was that INC leader Jagdish Tytler was the main person leading the anti-Sikh riots even as Jagdish Tytler himself is half-Sikh.  It is similar to Robert Kajuga, a Tutsi himself, being the leader of the Hutu extremist militia, the Interahamwe. 

[ag]

Well, at least INC isn't running him for PM this time.

[FredLindq]

How many seats has BJP and INC in the hindu heartland today? Which stats are the hindu heartland?

[jaichind]

Remember that Modi has a rule that he will never take an interview unless it is promised that the 2002 riots will not be brought up.  This time he broke this rule when being interviewed by Reuters and dropped this bombshell that he does not feel the riots were his fault and implied the Muslim community were like puppies.

[jaichind]

Sorry to be on Modi's case all the time.  I present the recent picture of Modi below



Where Modi who is a member of the Hindu nationalist RSS doing the RSS salute with other members of the RSS.  Of course the obvious question I ask is what does this salute remind you of.  

Here is a picture of a RSS mass rally



Again, what does this rally remind you of.

[tpfkaw]

TBF, everyone does weird, quasi-fascist political rallies in India.

[jaichind]

Just doing more thinking on why Modi will say something like this when it was a great chance for him to appear moderate and try to shift to the political centers and rope in more allies.  

One theory is that Modi thinks that while UPA might lose in 2014, NDA will most likely not win.  One thing about Indian politics is that election defeat cleanses at politician of sins in the eyes of the voter.  An example would be the 1977 defeat of Indira Gandhi cleansed her of her crimes of excesses in the Emergency of 1975-77.  This paved the way for her comeback in 1980.  Same for Jayalalitha when she ran a massively corrupt regime as CM of TN in 1991-1996 which culminated in the 1995 wedding of her son which cost $23 million and had a Guinness world record in terms of the largest wedding guests ever (150,000) and was crushed in the 1996 elections.  But that defeat cleansed her of these crimes and TN voted her back in 2001.

Perhaps Modi is trying to do the same thing and play the long game.  Go unrepentant for 2014, an election he figured could not be won anyway.  Then after defeat he hopes the chaos of a fractured mandate would mean another election is coming soon in which case his defeat in 2014 would have cleansed the 2002 Gujarat riots from his list of crimes in the eyes of the Indian voter.

[RogueBeaver]

But you and Xahar have said the BJP's electoral base has terminally eroded. Is the UPA game plan to have Singh pull a Gladstone and lead them into a hung parliament, then bring in Rahul as the white knight to take over? Doesn't seem likely that Rahul becomes PM pre-election.

[jaichind]

But you and Xahar have said the BJP's electoral base has terminally eroded. Is the UPA game plan to have Singh pull a Gladstone and lead them into a hung parliament, then bring in Rahul as the white knight to take over? Doesn't seem likely that Rahul becomes PM pre-election.

If I were Rahul Gandhi that is exactly what I would do. NDA will do well due to Modi but not enough to capture power, again due to Modi.  Modi sorts of puts a cap and floor on NDA's performance.  UPA would clearly lose votes and it would be better for Rahul Gandhi if it is Singh that takes the blame for this defeat.  Then Rahul can come in as the savior of INC.  This is the best way for Rahul to be PM.  If INC thinks it can win in 2014 where UPA can retain something like 230 seats or so, then they will have Rahul be the UPA PM candidate.  If they think UPA will be something like 180 seats then it will be Singh.

[jaichind]

How many seats has BJP and INC in the hindu heartland today? Which stats are the hindu heartland?

Hindu heartland is really the Hindi speaking north.  Usually that means UP, Delhi, Haryana, MP, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, and HP.  Most of them are really BJP vs INC.  UP and Bihar are exceptions.  So in political speak they speak of Hindi heartland it is those states MINUS UP and Bihar since in almost the same breath they speak of INC vs BJP in a zero sum battle.  
                      
                       INC         BJP
Delhi                 7             0
Haryana            9             0
HP                     1            3
MP                   12          16
Gujarat            11          15
Uttarakhand     5            0
Rajasthan        20           4

Other than HP, I think with Modi at the helm the BJP will gain from INC in 2014, most likely on the order or 20-30.  BJP will lose ground in other places (like Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh) and it will come down to if BJP can do well in UP.  The word is that Modi will contest in both UP and Gujarat.   You can do this in India, contest two seats.  The idea is that BJP victory or defeat will be decided in UP where on paper Modi should be bring in the votes.

[jaichind]

On a totally different topic.  The Indian Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling banning politicians who have been convicted of serious crimes from sitting in parliament, supplementing an earlier law banning convicts from running for office.  

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/supreme-court-verdict-1460-mps-mlas-face-criminal-cases/1140178/

What is interesting is that about 30% of MPs and MLAs have criminal charges against them.  Some of them quite serious such as rape, murder and kidnapping.  Right now someone charged with a crime can still run and hold for office.  Being convicted and after all appeals exhausted would it make it possible to bar someone from running for office.  The Indian court system is so slow that as long as someone charged and but convicted of a crime manage to win office the process pretty much slows to a halt to pretty much keep him in office forever as long as he keeps on winning elections.  Note that the ISC decision does not really change this that much but does make sure that existing MPs and MLAs can still face trail for crimes they are charged with and no longer have immunity while they are in office.  Note that this problem started in the 1980s and was the worst during the 1990s.  In the last 10 years the issues of criminals in politics is slowly getting better.

I do have 4 really funny stories to share about this, first three from the 1990s so I do not remember the name and a forth one from last year.

1) In the 1990s a mafia boss was running for a MP on a ticket of a significant party.  A week before the election, this mafia boss for his own reasons, decided that the path to victory was to kidnap his main opponent and keep him at his mansion.  The opponent's family complained to the police and a massive police force arrived at this mafia boss's mansion.  A large firefight started killing several members of the police and the mafia gang.  Eventually this mafia boss was arrested and his opponent freed.   The mafia boss was arrested and put in jail on the charges of kidnapping and resting arrest.  The election had this mafia boss winning by a landslide and this mafia boss was released to serve in the Lok Shabha.

2) In the 1990s, the head of a bandit gang that terrorized and controlled a district decided to run for office for MLA of the said district.  He actually ran on the law-and-order platform vowing to clean up crime in this district.  He was in a unique position to make this promise since his gang was pretty much responsible for all the crime in said district.  The people in this district were so desperate to keep this bandit under control that they elected this bandit head as MLA and as promised violent crime dropped as this bandit transitioned into a political corruption outfit to make revenue under the leadership of this bandit head.

3) In the 1990s the best way a police can make sure they can make an arrested of a wanted criminal is to show up for the swearing in ceremony of state legislatures.  They know that many winners of  state legislative elections are wanted criminals evading arrest but since they won the election they have to show up and swear in as MLA.  Of course once the arrest is made they are let go since they are MLAs now and have immunity.  But the police can claim they did their job.

4) One very recent example of criminals running for office is related to one Phoolan Devi who was a woman bandit in the 1980s who fought for lower caste against upper castes and was eventually captured.  After serving time she became a MP in UP running on the SP ticket.  In 2001 as MP she was murdered by Sher Singh Rana who was getting revenge for some of her upper caste victims back in the 1980s.  Sher Singh Rana was arrested on the spot and charged with murder.  While the trial was in progress, Sher Singh Rana in 2004 escaped from prison and eventually make his way to Afghanistan and then Bangladesh where he is still today.  In 2012 he filed papers to run for MLA in UP.  He was eventually allowed to contest since he was never convicted for the crime of murder of a MP and escaping from custody while on trial.  He did not win but still this would be as if Edward Snowden made his way to Ecuador and from there be allowed to run for the North Carolina General Assembly.