India 2014

[jaichind]

So there won't be a gradual release of the results, just one huge announcement on Friday?

Nope.  Friday morning they will count votes and results released as the count progresses.

[jaichind]

While it is not clear the scale of the NDA victory, it is clear that UPA is defeated which has been clear for a couple of years now.  INC last day or two seems to be gearing up to lay blame on PM M Singh for defeat.  INC leaders are talking about how Rahul Gandhi was not part of the cabinet which in turn infer that those in the cabinet should take the blame for defeat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the more comical exit polls is News24 Todays Chanakya UP

It has

Vote Share
BJP+          34%
BSP           22%
SP             23%
INC+         12%
AAP            5%

Seat Share
BJP+          70
BSP             3
SP               4
INC             3

That's... amazing.

[Sbane]

While it is not clear the scale of the NDA victory, it is clear that UPA is defeated which has been clear for a couple of years now.  INC last day or two seems to be gearing up to lay blame on PM M Singh for defeat.  INC leaders are talking about how Rahul Gandhi was not part of the cabinet which in turn infer that those in the cabinet should take the blame for defeat.

If there is anyone who should get blame in the INC, it should be Rahul and to a lesser extent his mother.

[jaichind]

While it is not clear the scale of the NDA victory, it is clear that UPA is defeated which has been clear for a couple of years now.  INC last day or two seems to be gearing up to lay blame on PM M Singh for defeat.  INC leaders are talking about how Rahul Gandhi was not part of the cabinet which in turn infer that those in the cabinet should take the blame for defeat.

If there is anyone who should get blame in the INC, it should be Rahul and to a lesser extent his mother.

Sonia Gandhi came out and said that M Singh cannot be blamed for defeat if INC were defeated.  She pushed for collective responsibility.  For me defeat was a function of of the UPA-IIt track record as well as an election campaign that lacked clarity. Rahul wanted to run a grassroots campaign and Sonia wanted to run a tried and tested traditional INC campaign.  INC ended doing neither.

[jaichind]

Correction.  The RSS exit polls has been officially released.   It has BJP at 226 and NDA at 259.  This seems to be somewhat lower than the medium exit poll which has NDA at 270-280.

Chart below has RSS projection for BJP seats by state



RSS also expect TDP at 8 seats, SS at 11, SAD at 5.

[jaichind]

INC internal survey suggest a quixotic 193 seats for UPA and 161 for INC.  To be fair back in 2009 the same survey had INC at 180 and UPA at 235 and it ended up being INC 206 UPA 261.

UPA breakdown would be


Uttar Pradesh     15
Bihar                   15
Madhya Pradesh 11
Andhra Pradesh  12
Gujarat               10
Maharashtra       24
Karnataka          14
Kerala                 12
Punjab                10
Rajasthan             8
Delhi                     2
Tamil Nadu           1
Assam                10
North East           7
Uttrakhand          3
HP                        3
J&K                      4
Goa                      1
Haryana`             4
Jharkhand            4
Chattisgarh          4
West Bengal        6
Orrisa                  7
Union Territories  6
Total                193

What is interesting about this survey is that INC seems to have given up on Jharkhand only projecting 4 and accepting a disappointing result in Karnataka at 14. I find it hard to believe that UPA can win 193 seats if they only win 14 in Karnataka.  The rest of the numbers does seem to be around the UPA cap in each state if everything comes up trumps for them.  

[Zanas]

So, strong showing by Nicolas Dupont-Aignan in this one, eh ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

NDTV exit poll has NDA 279 UPA 103.  NDTV seems pretty consistent with CNN-IBM at 276, Cicero 272, C-Voter 289 and Nielson 281.  Times Now at 249 and Today's Chanakya at 340 seems to be the outliers.  I am a bit skeptical of NDTV's results for TN where they have AIADMK at 48%, DMK+ at 25%, DMDK-BJP+ at 14% and INC at 3%.  The gap between AIADMK and DMK+ seems to large to me.  The BJP+ vote share of 40% in UP also seems high but is not too out of line with other exit polls.   

[covermyeyes]

BJP has the momentum in Assam.

As per NDTV:

BJP   - 6 seats (16 to 35 %)
INC + BPF - 6 seats (40 to 35 %)
AIUDF  - 2 seats (16 %)
AGP + Others - 0 (28 to 14 %)

CNN-IBN:

INC + BPF - 40 %
BJP      - 22 %
AGP     - 13 %
AIUDF  - 11 %
Others - 14 %

So, the pollsters disagree sharply over the result, but its clear that BJP is performing better than expected. Still, there are problems I would like to point out. According to NDTV, AIUDF has not just retained its vote share, but also snatched a seat from INC in lower Assam. This seat is probably either Barpeta or Karimganj. On the other hand, CNN-IBN projects that AIUDF has suffered a 5 % swing, probably to the the INC. If NDTV projection turns out to be true, then INC has lost part of its vote share to the BJP, and failed to make up for it since the expected swing from AIUDF did not materialize. However, if the CNN-IBN projections are correct, then the INC has gained from the decline of the AIUDF. But, this has been offset by the loss of part of its vote share to the BJP.

This is problematic. NDTV figures imply that INC failed to pick up the Muslim vote in lower Assam from AIUDF, meaning that BJP might have retained most, if not all of its present four seats in the area. This is because of a multipolar three cornered fight in which the BJP has the advantage as the AGP seems to have been annihilated. Conversely, if INC has lost part of its voteshare to BJP, and if AGP has been swallowed by the BJP, then the BJP should win most seats in upper Assam. This is where the AGP gets most of its votes. In other words, the projections imply a BJP sweep. However, NDTV has put BJP and INC + in a neck and neck fight. On the other hand, the CNN-IBN projections means that INC has snatched seats from BJP in lower Assam, and in turn, lost seats in upper Assam. This is because while the AIUDF vote has conceivably swung in its favour, the BJP has benefited from a 6 % swing of its own. This is most likely from both INC and AGP in upper Assam. In other words, more or less the reverse of 2009, INC deriving most of its seats from lower Assam and BJP from upper Assam.

[covermyeyes]

NDTV exit poll has NDA 279 UPA 103.  NDTV seems pretty consistent with CNN-IBM at 276, Cicero 272, C-Voter 289 and Nielson 281.  Times Now at 249 and Today's Chanakya at 340 seems to be the outliers.  I am a bit skeptical of NDTV's results for TN where they have AIADMK at 48%, DMK+ at 25%, DMDK-BJP+ at 14% and INC at 3%.  The gap between AIADMK and DMK+ seems to large to me.  The BJP+ vote share of 40% in UP also seems high but is not too out of line with other exit polls.   

Any final predictions for Assam? I would be interested in knowing which 5 seats (NDTV) you see INC winning? Kaliabor is a lock, and possibly Diphu, but the rest are up in the air. Also, if CNN-IBN projections are correct, how many do you see INC winning in light of NDTV projections? And where? I saw that you took the CNN-IBN vote share to mean 10 seats for INC in the last page. 

Lastly, who would you favour - NDTV or CNN-IBN? 35 % for BJP vs 22 % is a drastic variation. I am still holding out hope that Assam, like Kerala, avoids any part in electing a fascist as prime minister.

[Sbane]

It shouldn't be surprising to see  Assam vote for the anti-Muslim immigrant party considering its history.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[homelycooking]

Nice work. But may I suggest that you use a more distinct color for constituencies without candidates? On your Samajwadi map, for instance, it's very difficult to tell the constituencies without SP candidates from those with candidates who took a very small percentage of the vote. I prefer white to indicate the former, and commence using a shaded color scale in constituencies with non-zero values.

[RogueBeaver]

Any links to English results pages?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice work. But may I suggest that you use a more distinct color for constituencies without candidates? On your Samajwadi map, for instance, it's very difficult to tell the constituencies without SP candidates from those with candidates who took a very small percentage of the vote. I prefer white to indicate the former, and commence using a shaded color scale in constituencies with non-zero values.

Lets call this one a fundamental aesthetic disagreement

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any links to English results pages?

Results will come in on the official website and there will be media sources. But I'll do the great thread switch business now...