India 2014

[jaichind]

Some new updates

1) In Bihar BJP-LJP alliance is locked up.  INC and RJD also formed an alliance now that there are more seats to be divided between the two with LJP going over to BJP.
2) In TN, BJP MDMK formed an alliance although seat allocation does not seem to be locked down.  AIADMK broke its alliance with Left Front.  Most likely this is because AIADMK now views a Third Front government as much less likely given pro-NDA wave and wants to position itself to do deals with NDA after the election.  So it will be DMDK-BJP-PMK-MDMK vs AIADMK vs DMK-VCK vs INC.  It could still be that DMK-VCK forms an alliance with INC but DMK leader Stalin feel there is a Tamil rationalist wave against INC and does not want to be tainted by that.  INC very much want such an alliance now it lost the race to get DMDK.  DMK supremo Karunanidhi is for the alliance and now we will see if he will convince his son Stalin to agree to this. In the northern and western the DMDK led front might even be the main challenger to AIADMK instead of the DMK led front.  This fact might force DMK to go with an alliance with INC to stay relevant there. 
3) In AP TRS seems to have  ruled out merging with INC but still could from an alliance with it. INC CM of AP Kiran Kumar Reddy who opposed INC in forming Telengana most likely will start his own party and run in Seemandhra.  This will hurt YSRCP and INC (although INC in Seemandhra would be wiped out anyway and would be lucky to gain a seat or two in Seemandhra) and help TDP.  On the flip side, TDP-BJP alliance seems to be back on but it is not 100% clear yet.  If YSRCP can keep the anti-Telenagna emotions high it could paint the TDP with BJP which voted for the creation of Telengana.  Time will tell.
4)  There are talks of BJP and AGP forming an alliance in Assam but most likely this will not take place given the fact that the local BJP feels that AGP is a corpse and it could ride the Modi wave to take on INC there.
5) In Orissa (or Odisha as it is now called) the BJP is trying so form an grand anti-INC anti-BJD alliance of small parties but it seems it will be a non-starter.  
6) In Gujarat, BJP splinter GPP re-joins BJP and in Karnataka, BJP splinters BSRCP and KJP both re-merge with BJP.  Not sure how much this would help as those supporters might go elsewhere and not BJP.
7) Overall, the INC is losing vis-a-vis BJP in the alliance race.  AAP might still be a factor.  INC's main goals now is to make sure they get above 100 seats and UPA get above 120.  BJP's goal is to get above 200 and NDA above 220 as to make a NDA government inevitable.  If UPA pulls of a comeback and gets above 150 then it would cloud the picture on a NDA government
Latest CNN-IBN poll has NDA cruising to victory in UP and Bihar although the poll does not take into account the RJD-INC alliance. Overall it projects NDA at 222 and UPA at 119.  It projects BJP itself at 203 and INC at 102.  As for vote share it has NDA at 36% of the vote and UPA at 29% of the vote.  


 

[Zuza]

3) In AP TRS seems to have  ruled out merging with INC but still could from an alliance with it. INC CM of AP Kiran Kumar Reddy who opposed INC in forming Telengana most likely will start his own party and run in Seemandhra.  This will hurt YSRCP

Why can't he ally with YSRCP since both parties are Congress splits and both are anti-Telangana?

[jaichind]

3) In AP TRS seems to have  ruled out merging with INC but still could from an alliance with it. INC CM of AP Kiran Kumar Reddy who opposed INC in forming Telengana most likely will start his own party and run in Seemandhra.  This will hurt YSRCP

Why can't he ally with YSRCP since both parties are Congress splits and both are anti-Telangana?

To understand why we have to understand why Kiran Kumar Reddy is forming a party.  When INC pushed through the Telengana bill Kiran Kumar Reddy raised the banner of revolt along with a number of INC AP MPs.  All of them were expelled from INC.  Now all these sitting MPs want still run for re-election.  They looked into joining YSRCP and some of them did join YSRCP.  But for some of them YSRCP already decided on a candidate for their district.  So the remaining MPs asked Kiran Kumar Reddy to form a party so they can all run under one bloc.  Since the reason why this party was form is because some MPs could not join YSRCP and run under YSRCP then by definition this party cannot have an alliance with YSRCP since they will have the same collision when it comes to who should run in those seats. 

[jaichind]

One funny thing about the whole Telengana situation is that YSRCP, the ultra anti-Telengana party, plans to run candidates in Telengana as well.  Their in in Telengana which is different from what they say in Seemandhra , is that YSRCP is not opposed to forming Telengana, they only oppose INC doing it for electoral gain. 

[Gustaf]

So I guess BJP is really in the driver's seat now.

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

[ag]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

[jaichind]

Latest news.

1) Latest Zee TV and NDTV polls all have NDA around 220-230 and UPA around 120-130.  If this reflects the trends on the ground then Modi will be the PM.  Opponents of Modi will have to hope people are voting on local and not national factors.
2) In Telangana, INC and TRS pretty much broke up over alliance talks and will be contesting against each other.  This opens up the opportunity of BJP getting a seat or two in Telangana given its sizable base there.  If the much talked about TDP-BJP alliance actually takes place this can help even more.  There is also talk of TRS-BJP alliance but I suspect this will not take place.  Both parties sees itself as the dominate party of future in Telangana and any seat adjustment talks will collapse.
3) In AP we keep on hearing about a TDP-BJP alliance but it never seems to be announced.  I suspect this is because BJP feeling the Modi wave is demanding more seats from TDP who in turn feels BJP has no social base in AP so there is no need to assign it many seats.  In addition to former INC CM of AP  Kiran Kumar Reddy launching his party, popular Tollywood actor Pawan Kalyan, brother of INC leader Chiranjeevi, launched Jana Sena.   Chiranjeev who is also a famous actor founded Praja Rajyam in 2009 but after it did not do well in 2009 elections merged with INC and now is the INC leader in AP.  There is talk of Jana Sena (JS) could shift a lot of votes and that it could form an alliance with BJP.  Another reason for BJP to hold out for more seats from TDP.
4) In Jharkhand, a powerful INC-JMM-RJD alliance seems to have solid local base to compete with BJP who is running without is usual ally JD(U).  BJP tends not to do well in Jharkhand when not running with JD(U).  A lot depends on how JVM and AJSU do and if they pull votes from BJP or INC-JMM-RJD.
5) In Punjab, INC tied up with SAD splinter party PPP to fight against SAD-BJP.  This is also where the INC might repeat is 2009 performance.  It wil be INC vs BJP in Hindu areas and SAD vs PPP in Sikh areas.
6) In Assam BJP AGP talks fell apart and will take on INC separately.  There is now a chance of INC sweeping Assam as one of the few bright spots for INC.
7) In Karnataka, BJP completes merger with KJP which is said to give it a chance to repeat its impressive performance in 2009.  I think this is unlikely.  KJP votes will most likely scatter in all sorts of places including JD(S).  INC is expected to do well.  In fact that INC will do well in Karnataka is a bad sign for UPA.  UPA's all-India performance is inversely proportional to its Karnataka performance since 1999.
In Maharashtra, there is a blowup with BJP and SS with BJP going around SS's back to SS splinter MNS to make a deal for MNS not to run candidates against BJP and support Modi for PM.  MNS will continue to run candidates against SS.  SS vs MNS is also a family feud as both parties are led by cousins both claiming to the the political heir of SS founder and radical Hindu (psudo Facist)  Bal Thackeray.  It is clear that MNS is gaining support relative to SS and it might be a matter of time when BJP dumps SS and allies for MNS.  SS is in a weakened position with several leaders now defecting to INC and NCP.  
9) There is a blowup in the BJP itself with BJP leader Advani now rejecting to run from Gandhinagar in Gujarat and demanding that he gets to run from Bhopal in MP.  Many sees this as an attempt by Advani to again show defiance at the decision of Modi leader of BJP.  There are talk of a secret anti-Modi faction in BJP that is working to make sure BJP does not reach 200 seats so they can rid themselves of a Modi personality cult led BJP when Modi becomes PM.
10) In TN, DMK has its own family feud.  Alagiri, son of DMK leader Karunanidhi  has been suspended from DMK for his rejection of his brother Stalin from taking over of DMK as de facto leader.  Alagiri is for a DMK alliance with INC while Stalin is against.  Alagiri is running around trying to form a DMK faction that might support INC and at the same time trying to talk to BJP for a de facto alliance.  Alagiri has strong support of DMK voters in Southern TN so this might impact DMK election prospects.
11) Also in TN, as soon as the formidable on paper alliance assembled by BJP was formed which would be DMDK-PMK-MDMK-BJP, it is already starting to fall apart with DMDK and PMK announcing running candidates in seats reserved for each other.  DMDK and PMK have overlapping regional bases so this alliance was always going to be hard to keep intact.  BJP will just have to hope to contain the damage.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/in-muzaffarnagar-incumbent-mp-will-run-against-his-wife-497388

In Muzaffarnagar, incumbent MP will run against his wife

This is an old trick of running a dummy candidate which was tried by another MP back in 2009.  Each candidate is allowed a limited budget they can spend on the election.  So by having one's wife run as an independent against himself they can campaign together with twice the usual budget.   

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

Srsly?

[jaichind]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

This is really assuming that the NDA lead is such so that NDA can form a stable government.  The Indian stock market also surged in 2009 when UPA did better than expected and formed a stable government.  The market expects economic reforms as a result of a stable government which never showed up.  Now they are putting their economic reform hopes on Modi.

[MaxQue]

Tollywood? It's a regional Bollywood?

[moderatevoter]

Tollywood? It's a regional Bollywood?

Telugu cinema, also known as Tollywood, is a part of Indian cinema based in Hyderabad, India

[ag]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

Srsly?

Srsly. Of course maybe you were thinking of the RSS or SS.

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

Modi is running in his economic record in Gujarat as far as I can tell, and Gujarat is one of the best managed states in India, if not the best. It is not unnatural that people will be attracted to his candidacy. I can sort of see your point about the crazies being emboldened if the BJP had a majority, but an unstable government just defeats the purpose of why Modi was elected since most parties just want to suck the treasury dry for the benefit of their castes. Only a BJP- AAP alliance might be able to get anything productive done.

[ag]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

Modi is running in his economic record in Gujarat as far as I can tell, and Gujarat is one of the best managed states in India, if not the best. It is not unnatural that people will be attracted to his candidacy. I can sort of see your point about the crazies being emboldened if the BJP had a majority, but an unstable government just defeats the purpose of why Modi was elected since most parties just want to suck the treasury dry for the benefit of their castes. Only a BJP- AAP alliance might be able to get anything productive done.

As far as I am coserned, the only purpose of a Modi election is a pact with the devil. Modi being able to do anything is a crime against humanity. Some things should never be forgiven or forgotten.  Whatever he wants to do for the economy is irrelevant.

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

Modi is running in his economic record in Gujarat as far as I can tell, and Gujarat is one of the best managed states in India, if not the best. It is not unnatural that people will be attracted to his candidacy. I can sort of see your point about the crazies being emboldened if the BJP had a majority, but an unstable government just defeats the purpose of why Modi was elected since most parties just want to suck the treasury dry for the benefit of their castes. Only a BJP- AAP alliance might be able to get anything productive done.

As far as I am coserned, the only purpose of a Modi election is a pact with the devil. Modi being able to do anything is a crime against humanity. Some things should never be forgiven or forgotten.  Whatever he wants to do for the economy is irrelevant.

I think Modi's involvement with the riots are way overblown but whatever. I am just pointing out that he his certainly not stressing hindutva in this election. This election is not about that. I still hope the BJP choose someone else than Modi but I certainly hope the BJP wins decisively. Perhaps with some alliance members who force someone else other than Modi to become PM. That could be a best case scenario.

[ag]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

Modi is running in his economic record in Gujarat as far as I can tell, and Gujarat is one of the best managed states in India, if not the best. It is not unnatural that people will be attracted to his candidacy. I can sort of see your point about the crazies being emboldened if the BJP had a majority, but an unstable government just defeats the purpose of why Modi was elected since most parties just want to suck the treasury dry for the benefit of their castes. Only a BJP- AAP alliance might be able to get anything productive done.

As far as I am coserned, the only purpose of a Modi election is a pact with the devil. Modi being able to do anything is a crime against humanity. Some things should never be forgiven or forgotten.  Whatever he wants to do for the economy is irrelevant.

I think Modi's involvement with the riots are way overblown but whatever. I am just pointing out that he his certainly not stressing hindutva in this election. This election is not about that. I still hope the BJP choose someone else than Modi but I certainly hope the BJP wins decisively. Perhaps with some alliance members who force someone else other than Modi to become PM. That could be a best case scenario.

As far as I am concerned, there is only one thing that Modi could do that would reconcile me with him (short of doing the right thing and committing suicide, of course - but that he should have done long ago). He should anonymously retire into a very distant monastery and take a vow of never uttering a word and never showing his face to any human being.

Conditional on India electing him as a PM, of course, I will sincerely hope his government is disastrous.

Now Kalwejt will come and say that I am losing my mind

[Sbane]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/saritharai/2014/03/19/indian-stocks-rally-ahead-of-2014-general-elections-fuelled-by-hope/

Well, the fascist government in India seems increasingly certain. I just hope, they are sufficiently constrained with allies needed to form a majority. Still, I want a different globe.

Right.....because markets always rise when they think an extremist, unstable government is coming into power.

Westerners need to chill out about the BJP. Modi is a dick of course, but the BJP really isn't worse than most western right wing parties.

That is the problem: it might be a stable extremist government. The best hope, at this point, it turns out to be unstable.

I do not like BJP too much, but I could live with it. But Modi is beyond the pale.

Modi is running in his economic record in Gujarat as far as I can tell, and Gujarat is one of the best managed states in India, if not the best. It is not unnatural that people will be attracted to his candidacy. I can sort of see your point about the crazies being emboldened if the BJP had a majority, but an unstable government just defeats the purpose of why Modi was elected since most parties just want to suck the treasury dry for the benefit of their castes. Only a BJP- AAP alliance might be able to get anything productive done.

As far as I am coserned, the only purpose of a Modi election is a pact with the devil. Modi being able to do anything is a crime against humanity. Some things should never be forgiven or forgotten.  Whatever he wants to do for the economy is irrelevant.

I think Modi's involvement with the riots are way overblown but whatever. I am just pointing out that he his certainly not stressing hindutva in this election. This election is not about that. I still hope the BJP choose someone else than Modi but I certainly hope the BJP wins decisively. Perhaps with some alliance members who force someone else other than Modi to become PM. That could be a best case scenario.

As far as I am concerned, there is only one thing that Modi could do that would reconcile me with him (short of doing the right thing and committing suicide, of course - but that he should have done long ago). He should anonymously retire into a very distant monastery and take a vow of never uttering a word and never showing his face to any human being.

Conditional on India electing him as a PM, of course, I will sincerely hope his government is disastrous.

Now Kalwejt will come and say that I am losing my mind

Why would you wish for the continued impoverishment of hundreds of millions of people? Ok, you hate Modi but isn't that a little extreme? Do you even realize how much easier life has become for the poor after the telecom revolution that allowed them to get access to telephones? That was done by the BJP government. Also, roads have become much better in India and that is another accomplishment of the previous BJP government.

Vajpayee was a much better PM than Manmohan Singh, although a lot of that has to do with the fact that the idiot Sonia Gandhi is the real PM, not Singh. I really respect him a lot, and if he wasn't constrained by the idiots around him he would have been a great PM, but that is not the reality on the ground.

[ag]

Vajpayee was a much better PM ...

If you noticed, I have never said a word against BJP in all of this discussion. I, actually, somewhat liked Vajpayee myself: he was a decent man and a proper statesman. Advani, of course, is an SOB, but, still, I could, probably, even tolerate his government. I would never support BJP personally - but I would not wish a disaster to a BJP-led government just because it is BJP-led.

But Modi is another matter. The guy is a proud murderer, and everything we know about him suggests that if he gets his way, he will be murdering people. Given that he is almost certainly going to be a PM, one has to, at this point, hope that he is heavily constrained by the necessity of running a coalition government, and that while doing that he flops badly, so that he never has a chance of properly winning an election. Because otherwise we are in for a horrible future.

No decent person may consider cooperating with Modi. That guy is beyond the line that separates politics and Evil.

[jaichind]

There is an assumption made by many, which includes most of Indians, that the Modi economic record in Gujuart is stellar and Modi as PM will bring similar benefits.  Modi himself is pretty much running on this and is trying to replicate Indira Gandhi's 1980 INC victory which was based on the motto "elect a government that works."  Note that Indira's 1980 victory was a non-ideological victory while her 1971 victory was a victory of a socialist platform.  Modi is trying to shed the Hindu nationalist image in this election although at the ground level in places like UP the BJP is still running hard on the hindutva agenda.   

My take is that while I very much agree with Modi's neo-liberal economic policies which he spots, the ground reality of his regime in Gujarat since 2001 is that it is mostly talk.  Gujarat historically has been more economically advanced when compared with the rest of India.  A lot of the economic growth in Gujarat in the early part of Modi's rule there has more to do with the recovery from 2001 Gujarat earthquake.  And of course one has to consider the recovery from the Gujarat riots of 2002 itself which Modi is at least indirectly responsible for.  After that growth spurt the Gujarat economic record falls behind places like Bihar and TN.  One can say that both these states are more backward so they have the advantage of convergence.  But the Gujarat record during Modi's regime also falls show of Maharashtra or Haryana which are at par with Gujarat.  In fact, relative to rest of India, Gujarat performed better back in the 1980s and 1990s before Modi's regime came into power.   There is also a perception that Gujuart became the FDI center of India due to Modi but the fact it Gujarat falls far short of several other Indian states.  What Modi is good at is marketing any Gujarat success as his own. 

Like I said, now it seems a better than 50/50 shot that Modi will come to power, while I like the economic ideas he speaks about I doubt it is more than just talk and in addition he will be constrained by all sorts of other populist pressures within and without his coalition.  So these policies I like will be half-measures at best. 

[Sbane]

One thing about Gujarat that you must keep in mind is that they didn't have the advantage of having a big city like Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai or Chennai in their state. That is what make their growth impressive, while West Bengal has squandered most of the opportunities it had. Ahmedabad is a medium size city at best and is overshadowed by other cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad. No one should expect a state like that to have a lot of FDI. Speaking of Haryana, basically all the growth there is from Gurgaon which happened mostly because of the growth of Delhi.

[ag]

One thing about Gujarat that you must keep in mind is that they didn't have the advantage of having a big city like Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai or Chennai in their state. That is what make their growth impressive, while West Bengal has squandered most of the opportunities it had. Ahmedabad is a medium size city at best and is overshadowed by other cities such as Bangalore and Hyderabad. No one should expect a state like that to have a lot of FDI. Speaking of Haryana, basically all the growth there is from Gurgaon which happened mostly because of the growth of Delhi.

The city of Ahmedabad proper is bigger than Chennai proper. Comparing metro areas, Ahmedabad is indeed a bit smaller - but it is still the 7th largest metro area in India. A tiny town the size of Madrid.