India 2014

[ag]

Well, and once Modi is the disappointment of the middle class and foreign investors, what is he to do? Sit back and enjoy the defeat at the next election? Or, may be, do what he can, actually, do: wipe up the communal hatreds to make sure a sizable segment of voters has to maintain him in power to avoid retribution?

The problem with Modi is not that he is a horrid fundamentalist - perhaps, he is, but that is not the main thing. The problem is that he has shown that he is not averse to using mob hatreds and murders to achieve his political goals. You might believe (or, should I say, hope?) that it will not be in his interest to do those things again. But hatred does pay, unfortunately. So I would not be that sanguine.

[Sbane]

Well, and once Modi is the disappointment of the middle class and foreign investors, what is he to do? Sit back and enjoy the defeat at the next election? Or, may be, do what he can, actually, do: wipe up the communal hatreds to make sure a sizable segment of voters has to maintain him in power to avoid retribution?

The problem with Modi is not that he is a horrid fundamentalist - perhaps, he is, but that is not the main thing. The problem is that he has shown that he is not averse to using mob hatreds and murders to achieve his political goals. You might believe (or, should I say, hope?) that it will not be in his interest to do those things again. But hatred does pay, unfortunately. So I would not be that sanguine.

That would only be the difference between 120 and 160 seats for the NDA. I don't think someone can win the whole country based on that, unless that occurs along with a war with Pakistan or a massive terror attack. So why would he do it?

In any case, I agree with Jaichind that a lot of the difference would have to be made at the state level. But the national can do some things like hasten the pace of road construction, allow more foreign investment, fix the tax system and hopefully privatize more industries.

[ag]

History teaches us, that a pact with Devil is always fraught - even if the Devil in question promises to build roads aor cut the red tape. sh**t will happen - I am pretty damn sure of that. And, BTW, why would you think that he, who was willing to have people killed en masse in Gujarat, would stop before launching a "little victorious war" with Pakistan or sponsoring a convenient terrorist attack before an election?

[Хahar 🤔]

Whether the trains run on time is basically beside the point.

[Tender Branson]

Just noticed that this year more than 2 billion people will vote in major elections, because voters in many of the World's most populous countries are voting:

* India (815 Mio.)
* EU (395 Mio.)
* USA (200 Mio.)
* Indonesia (185 Mio.)
* Brazil (145 Mio.)

And various others in smaller countries.

[Sbane]

or sponsoring a convenient terrorist attack before an election?

Probably with help from his Israeli friends?

[jaichind]

Picture of Modi's wife that he finally acknowledged for the first time



He dumped her after three years of marriage to join RSS and it seems during that three years he only spend about three months with her.  It also seems like there was no consummation of the marriage.  I really think this is not a big deal by itself but I feel the lie is a low worse than the original problem.  Modi should just have come clean when he started politics that he joined RSS under false pretenses and that was a mistake in his youth.  At least Modi can serve as an example of pushing forward the economy since that would be his mandate if he came to power.  He placed career above family. 

[Sbane]

October surprise!

[jaichind]

As for why Modi never acknowledged this before but finally had to acknowledge it now has to do with the election system.  When Modi filed papers in 2002 2007 and 2012 to run for the Gujarat assembly elections, he left the field "married or not and if married name of spouse" blank.  Since the election commission worked for him they let him leave the field blank so he does not have to commit perjury.  For the Federal elections the election commission does not work for Modi pretty much indicated that all fields has to be filled out.  So Modi had a choice. Either lie and risk being convicted for perjury if a investigation finds that he is legally married or come clean.

[jaichind]

There are signs in Telangana of tactical alliances between TRS and INC to try to stop BJP-TDP.  TRS tends to be stronger in Northern Telangana and INC Southern Telangana.   There seems to be cases in districts where TRS is clearly stronger that the INC is nominating a weak unknown candidate and vice versa.  The main reason seems to be that both TRS and INC sees politics in Telangana moving toward a bipolar system where BJP will be one of the polls.  Either TRS or INC will be other poll with one of the two eventually disappearing and or merging in de facto or de jure terms into the other.  Given the fact that BJP is the long term enemy, both parities wants to try to weaken BJP in this election.  Ergo the tactical alliance.   

There are also signs that Left Front is supporting its main rival INC is parts of Kerela where BJP surging and have a chance of winning.  It is not just for ideological reasons.  Kerela is 60% Hindu, 20% Christian, 20% Muslim.  INC pretty much locked up the Muslim and Christian vote with Left Front being the "Hindu party" in Kerela.  So a rising BJP in Kerela is a threat to the Left Front more so than INC.

On the flit side, in Karnataka, there are signs that JD(S) and BJP are backing each other in places where they might be weak to stop INC by running weak candidates.  This despite the ideological differences between BJP and JD(S).  Of course back in 2006-2008 there was a BJP-JD(S) alliance anyway so this is not to surprising. 

[jaichind]

The people I know from work from TN (they are all Brahmins from TN) are all convinced that

a) NDA will win 250 seats
b) AIADMK will win 35 seats out of 39 in TN
c) NDA+AIADMK will form the government with AIADMK leader Jayalalithaa will be made Deputy PM with Modi as PM

I told them I am skeptical of this prediction.  I based my view on
a) Not clear NDA will win 250 seats
b) AIADMK has the advantage in TN but I do not thing AIADMK will win 35 seats, more lilke low to mid 20s.
c) Both Modi and Jayalalithaa are megalomaniacs.  The same government cannot have two fuhreres.  I just cannot see Jayalalithaa taking orders from anyone. 
d) This prediction setup will be bad for AIADMK in the 2016 TN elections.  NDA member DMDK and PMK has a poor relationship with AIADMK after the AIADMK tried to break DMDK and tried to arrest the PMK leader.  A AIADMK-BJP alliance would create the ultimate grand alliance with DMK-INC-DMDK-PMK-Left Front in 2016 and all AIADMK would have is BJP and perhaps MDMK.  We seen this movie before, such an alliance was formed with everyone vs AIADMK-BJP in 2004 Federal elections where Jalalaithaa was creamed 39-0 in terms of seats.  AIADMK is doing fairly well in a multi-polar TN and would not risk creating such a grand alliance against AIADMK.

My TN friends are unconvinced by my view.  We will know after the election results out and government formation done.

[ag]

There are so many things so wrong on so many counts... I just hope, Indian democracy can survive 5 years lf it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Neither AIADMK or DMK are affiliated with the UPA or the NDA?

AIADMK is likely to support the NDA after the election though, is that right?

[jaichind]

Neither AIADMK or DMK are affiliated with the UPA or the NDA?

AIADMK is likely to support the NDA after the election though, is that right?

That is correct. AIADMK likely to support it from the outside but avoid direct associations/alliances with BJP.  AIADMK will not join the government in my view despite what my TN friends tell me.

[jaichind]

I am also very surprised at the medial opinion polls on how well BJP-LJP is doing in Bihar.  I am a cynical person but even I am surprised at the cynical nature ofthe BJP-LJP alliance and also surprised that it seems to be working.

Lets be clear, the LJP in the 2005 Bihar assembly elections used a Bin Ladin look-alike to project themselves not just as a pro-Muslim party but a pro-Muslim fundamentalist party.  And now it is in an alliance with the BJP lead by Modi who has a RSS Hindu fundamentalist background.  In the USA context as if a political party was allied and an advocate for the Black Panther Party but then switched to form an alliance with David Duke's political movement.   I am surprised that the BJP and LJP supporters see the opportunist and cynical nature of the alliance and yet still continue to support this alliance.

[Sbane]

There are so many things so wrong on so many counts... I just hope, Indian democracy can survive 5 years lf it.

Relax, man. If it survived Indira, it can survive anything.

[Sbane]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

[politicus]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

No. Enlighten us sahib.

[ag]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

There is a difference between incompetence and deliberate murder. Aside even from the minor fact that in Gujarat there were, what, 50 times as many victims?

[ag]

There are so many things so wrong on so many counts... I just hope, Indian democracy can survive 5 years lf it.

Relax, man. If it survived Indira, it can survive anything.

I wouldn´t be so sure. Indira was many (bad) things, but a fascist thug she wasn´t.

[Sbane]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

No. Enlighten us sahib.

You can read for yourself. To be honest I didn't know much about this until today. I had just heard about it but never really looked to into it and the only reason I did today was to make a point that the massacre of muslims happen under other governments as well, not just BJP. What I found was a little more interesting, and something you would never see in the west would you? Imagine if some immigrants in Europe rioted or blacks in the US and killed white people, they would be in jail for the rest of their lives. Electrocuted around here. In India, the leaders of the group get to meet with the Chief Minister.

[Sbane]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

There is a difference between incompetence and deliberate murder. Aside even from the minor fact that in Gujarat there were, what, 50 times as many victims?

Deliberate murder by whom though? BJP cadres or was Modi in the streets?  Here it looks like it was SP party folks, or at least their cherished vote bank. Is Akilesh Yadav a murderer as well? You can say that in Gujarat the police did nothing, thus implying murder by the government itself. The same thing happened here. Or should this be held to a different standard?

 I was pretty surprised actually...I really didn't know that is what happened in Muzaffarnagar. All I knew about it was that people were killed (I assumed muslims) and that people were homeless. Anyways, the BJP strength in UP is starting to make more sense to me now.

[Sbane]

Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

[ag]

Also, for those of you who seem to think India treats its religious minorities so horribly, would you be happy if they got the same type of treatment religious minorities get in muslim countries surrounding India?

1. I never said India treated minorities horribly. Unlike, it seems, you, I do not consider Modi to be India.

2. What do Muslim-Shmuslim countries have to do with this conversation? We do not talk about Saudi Arabia here. Frankly, I do not care a fruck for Saudi Arabia. We are talking about India. And, yes, in the US they used to lynch the Negroes. Another very relevant point you could make.

[ag]

Also speaking of riots, are you guys aware of what went on in Muzzafarnagar last year? When you take into account how the riots were handled by the muslim friendly SP who rule the state, why shouldn't Hindus vote for the BJP?

There is a difference between incompetence and deliberate murder. Aside even from the minor fact that in Gujarat there were, what, 50 times as many victims?

Deliberate murder by whom though? BJP cadres or was Modi in the streets?  Here it looks like it was SP party folks, or at least their cherished vote bank. Is Akilesh Yadav a murderer as well? You can say that in Gujarat the police did nothing, thus implying murder by the government itself. The same thing happened here. Or should this be held to a different standard?

 I was pretty surprised actually...I really didn't know that is what happened in Muzaffarnagar. All I knew about it was that people were killed (I assumed muslims) and that people were homeless. Anyways, the BJP strength in UP is starting to make more sense to me now.

I do remember 2002 pretty damn well. Everything at the time indicated that police was deliberately held off from stopping the massacres. Yes, they were never able to prove Modi guilty beyond doubt - he is smart, he would not give such orders directly. But he IS guilty as hell. And he never really denied he did it. At the time, all Mr. Modi had to say was something along the lines of: "Well, you know... Action creates counteraction".  Times of India back then wrote: "Narendra ´Newton´Modi has a lot to answer for". Alas, nobody has ever insisted he does answer.

I haven´t been born yesterday. I know that many Indian politicians resort to inciting or even provoking communal violence when it suites their electoral needs. But what Modi did was outrageous by any standards. He is a mass murderer - if there ever was a mass murderer on this planet.

Narendra Modi is a cold-blooded mass murderer, who has never recanted (even symbolically). You are not buying an unknown bag of goods. There is very much truth in advertising here. We all have known who Narendra Modi is for a long time. The decision is being made consiously.  No way to pretend your compatriots do not know what they are doing.

Good luck. I wish it - do not believe in it, though.